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4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

0z seems to be locking in on a GL cutter for this weekend with a signature LES event through sunday...on the flip side the meteorologistfrom WIVB 4 in buffalo actually muttered the words "potential snowstorm " next weekend. 

Which one? Santos and Cejka are only good ones left. 

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6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup. This is being advertised by both the GEFS and EPS for the extended beyond Thanksgiving. Basically it's the pattern potentially reloading as we break into December. The Weeklies were actually suggesting this relaxation as well, then the arctic opens up and the flood gates pour back east by early-mid December. If that were to occur, you're talking about getting towards good climo for many areas in the east, and really look solid for the Lakes. I still think we'll see transient cold shots at times for your latitude, but nothing substantial until after the aforementioned time frame.

 I'm thinking a white Christmas is very likely for everyone in the sub-forum and even into areas further downwind. Me on the other hand lives in do or die land where if we don't get systems to bomb to our south or get some kind of crazy snow squall action, it'll be another brown Christmas. I've seen a grand total of 2 "white" Christmas and both were due to snow falling previous days. Only once have I seen flakes on Christmas Day, but it melted on contact. In fact, seen snow 3 times on Thanksgiving lol 

It's been awhile since we've had a white xmas here too. That timeframe is still a month out so tough to get too excited just yet. But I agree it looks so much better than the last 2 years. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's been awhile since we've had a white xmas here too. That timeframe is still a month out so tough to get too excited just yet. But I agree it looks so much better than the last 2 years. 

Last December was actually about a good as gets around here for Rochester, except for a four day period right around Christmas when we hit our max temps for the month and went completely snowless (That said, it was still technically "White" in Rochester with at least an inch on the ground)  

Now December 2015, that month was a complete loss.  Absolutely unreal temps and less than 3 inches total on the month.  

Roc_CF6_12_2016.thumb.PNG.1ecf45faf0e8bc0dfde9512e0d99f47e.PNG

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38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS looks pretty robust for an event late weekend/early next week from what I can see (Tug area?). Been watching for a few days now. Long way out...

(Looks anxiously at calendar)

Yeah looks good for the tug so far, still to far out for specifics and cold enough air for strong LES is still in question. 

CIPS analogs for that timeframe:

Image

Image

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First mention from KBUF about LES next weekend.

Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First mention from KBUF about LES next weekend.


Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.

Early morning run of 6z is very juicy for a synoptic event just after the weekend storm 

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Hey all. First time posting this Fall/Winter. Looking really good for a nice start to the LES season, with an event from Sat (post-cold-front) into the following week. If 12Z GFS verified (which I doubt, but it could happen), the LES would continue through Friday, putting the Tug in the 'several' feet range. 00Z Euro breaks up the cold air and ends LES on Monday.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Fulton to Tug special on 12z GFS. Feet of snow. 

May actually get to the city of Syracuse for a time as winds veer enough to the NW, but a very brief visit, as winds once again align out of the W-WNW quickly sending whatever is occurring, North of the immediate CNY area.  H700 is chock full of goodness throughout the period with ample moisture throughout the column but as many have alluded to, temps are still in question, with a lot of mention of mixing in both disc's from both nws offices.  Last couple of Novembers have been interesting right around Thanksgiving time, last yr, although  a week later, we had the first substantial event, but after that one, there were no more, lol, as the Winter as a whole was a complete dud.  Still 6 days out so things will change, so lets hope their for the better, and not for the worse.

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11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

May actually get to the city of Syracuse for a time as winds veer enough to the NW, but a very brief visit, as winds once again align out of the W-WNW quickly sending whatever is occurring, North of the immediate CNY area.  H700 is chock full of goodness throughout the period with ample moisture throughout the column but as many have alluded to, temps are still in question, with a lot of mention of mixing in both disc's from both nws offices.  Last couple of Novembers have been interesting right around Thanksgiving time, last yr, although  a week later, we had the first substantial event, but after that one, there were no more, lol, as the Winter as a whole was a complete dud.  Still 6 days out so things will change, so lets hope their for the better, and not for the worse.

People bashing last December have bad memories.  The event from the 14th to 16th was pretty awesome for almost everyone as some arctic fronts crashed the band onto the South shore several times and we also hooked up a nice GB connection for a time.   We all did pretty well with that one and there was also an event about 4 days before that one that was decent.  January was a pretty big letdown though after a solid start to the season but the usual suspects (tug hill, southern tier) had a couple big hits both early and late in the month.  

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=C

 

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

People bashing last December have bad memories.  The event from the 14th to 16th was pretty awesome for almost everyone as some arctic fronts crashed the band onto the South shore several times and we also hooked up a nice GB connection for a time.   We all did pretty well with that one and there was also an event about 4 days before that one that was decent.  January was a pretty big letdown though after a solid start to the season

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=C

 

I'm talking about Syracuse and from those graphics, CNY got squat, lol, but somehow KSYR managed to get to normal snowfall for the season. Came from quite a few nickel and dime events.  This yr seems to be starting out quite similar, lets just hope it doesn't follow suit after this next event, which from my eyes looks quite questionable presently due to forecasted temps but still six days out do plenty of time to

 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Terrible look at end of EURO run. All cold air on other side of globe. 

ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

+AO without question!.

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