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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Not necessarily. There will be a "warmish" period prior to Thanksgiving, but it looks like the bottom drops out sometime Thanksgiving week as trough dumps east and strong Canadian HP motions back into the CONUS. This depiction is mid month after the cold shot. The upper level pattern signals surface ridging off along and off the SE coast, so we get fed with the backside of the high. Thus, warmer than normal temps heading into weekend prior to Thanksgiving. You can see with the height pattern, there's a more zonal regime setup, so you're not going to muster any storms to carve a trough at any point and the pattern stays stagnant for a time. 

 

5a04217b7a0e1_eurobeforeTG.thumb.png.33c1e83c9fbe514551b38234328e8eb9.png

 

Now as we head into Thanksgiving week, the trough off the coast of BC moves east and we begin to carve a trough over the Northern Plains and dumps into the east. Height rises out west signal the precursor to the forecasted +PNA setup for the end of the month, meaning trough axis settling into the east. NAO pattern will be more blocky, thus pattern will not move quickly and cold could in theory stick around longer. This is what I was referring to for the GL region end of the month into December. A more pronounced cold air pattern across the warm lakes should set off the LES machine in the long term.

 

5a0423279256f_EuroafterTG.thumb.png.a9359aa273ca49ab2d87140489d494ad.png

 

If we can get a powerful shortwave trough to traverse the area late November into December, could see a pretty decent event unfold. Tonight's Euro was signaling something like that at the end of it's run. Check out the heights over the lakes for hour 240!! That's a LES maker if I've ever seen one. But you can see the general theme from a smoothed mean like the EPS and the operational Euro with the rising height pattern out West and deeper trough cutting into the East. 

 

5a042393cc888_EuroBomb.thumb.png.c38e73a67ca78340b9da1170291ffff6.png

 

And if this shot of the high latitudes doesn't get you excited for what's to come, nothing will. I'd be getting ready for some cold and snow if I lived in the snow belt.

 

5a04247b71e4c_EuroHL.thumb.png.35802ea76c8ac1e1461155a7ef0b6ed7.png

 

Yeah I agree with all of this, but it's still so far out that it's tough to take it seriously yet. The indices definitely favor the last week of November to be colder than average with some shots of Lake Effect possibilities. I still don't think that PAC look is cooperating as much as it should to get any sustained cold. Still looks quite progressive. 

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35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I agree with all of this, but it's still so far out that it's tough to take it seriously yet. The indices definitely favor the last week of November to be colder than average with some shots of Lake Effect possibilities. I still don't think that PAC look is cooperating as much as it should to get any sustained cold. Still looks quite progressive. 

Well one thing in our favor with even  a somewhat turbulent pac is the blocking in Greenland.  I have already recognized the conditions are far different from last year when we were praying for a -AO to show up but it truly never did. This is the first time in a few winters where both are predicted to go negative at the same time and AO predicted sharply negative,  all the while the infamous polar vortex is behaving normally.

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The 12z is having an issue with the next weekend and thanksgiving weeknow. There are 2 noreasters or hybrids that have our area well on the cold side of each system which would drag any cold air, and there is plenty, down from Canada giving our area the first accumulating snows of the year. What this says to me is the GFS is not connecting or picking up on the sharply declining indices  (both AO and NAO tank after the 16th and the PNA shoots to positive) and may take a few days to straighten itself out. All the signs are there we just need to see it all come together now

 

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The PNA and EPO will need to help us to get arctic air in here. Without it's aid it's going to be tough to get the type of cold air we need for LES. But the pattern does look good synoptically. But most of that GFS run is far to warm for snow. If it was a month later we would be ecstatic to see a look like that, would be storm after storm of snow. 

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KBUF sneaked it in at the end.

Looking beyond the official long term forecast, into next weekend,
models are showing some consistency in a more pronounced trough
cutting off and drifting across the Great Lakes into New England.
This system may offer our next chance of milder air and widespread
rainfall Friday, followed by much cooler air and lake effect showers
into the weekend. Stay tuned...

-3 to -6 Temp anomalies are not cold enough for snow in that timeframe I don't think. Highs in the upper 30s/Low 40s. Lows in the low 30s.  

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_41.png

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The PNA and EPO will need to help us to get arctic air in here. Without it's aid it's going to be tough to get the type of cold air we need for LES. But the pattern does look good synoptically. But most of that GFS run is far to warm for snow. If it was a month later we would be ecstatic to see a look like that, would be storm after storm of snow. 

PNA is gonna go to record low lvls, IMO, as the ridge pumps up right off the left coast and hooks up with the ridge which will develop around Greenland/No Atlantic, wirh a classic signature if a -NAO coupled with with a + PNA. We will have the classic Horseshoe look to the H5 lvl, then lookout below. Definitely getting excited for the extended period out to Christmas and that's all I care about.

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KBUF sneaked it in at the end.

Looking beyond the official long term forecast, into next weekend,models are showing some consistency in a more pronounced [url=https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=trough]trough[/url]cutting off and drifting across the Great Lakes into New England.This system may offer our next chance of milder air and widespread[url=https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=rainfall]rainfall[/url] Friday, followed by much cooler air and lake effect showersinto the weekend. Stay tuned...

-3 to -6 Temp anomalies are not cold enough for snow in that timeframe I don't think. Highs in the upper 30s/Low 40s. Lows in the low 30s.  

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png&key=ebf7c94652e77034cdef7b8abbf816ed9f4aa517f4de16576906e46e07372c39

gfs-ens_T850a_us_41.png&key=bbdfb0a35537054c6ff153b9c564fc5182808b152a0bed71bcd056ae154b5496

It'll definitely be cold enough as we get closer to the time frame as the global get a better handle of the Atmosphere as a whole, but who really knnows.

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Kind of a disappointment so far here. A couple mangeled flakes once in a great while here and there but doesn’t look like anything forming on radar. Most the steadier precip (not sure if it’s even all snow) is to my south moving even further away with nothing forming to my N and W. Hopefully we can start getting some meaningful snow towards the end of the month.

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