BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 The incredible strong GOA Ridge begins to weaken and slide west during the 2nd week of Nov on most ENS packages which allows some cooler air to work its way into the great lakes. I still think this month will be 2-4 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 Way out there, but there is decent signal for possible synoptic wet snow event next Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Still looks average/slightly above average for next 10 days or so. I think we see another cold/cool shot during 2nd/3rd week at some point as the western trough somewhat relaxes. I actually think it's a bit conflicting as there is a positive PNA, but there's also a negative EPO so they may actually balance each other out. The Nao, at this point in the Season really doesn't matter too much, as far as sensible weather is concerned, so yeah I agree normal slightly above but that could also be slightly cooler than average as well, so we'll see. I don't see any snow till the very end of November at the earliest to mid-December for our first Blockbuster event.I just love the fact, that the majority of the summer, there was a trough im in the Northeast, that wouldn't budge, and now obviously we're entering the colder months we have a beautiful wonderful Ridge of high pressure that just won't budge, what a joke!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Isn't that funny, as soon as you post possible wet snow event next week, right after I said I don't see any snow fall until the very end of November to mid-December, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 57 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Isn't that funny, as soon as you post possible wet snow event next week, right after I said I don't see any snow fall until the very end of November to mid-December, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah lots of stuff has to come together perfectly to get synoptic snow in November, its very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Models run a hour earlier this weekend. Dont gotta stay up so late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Models run a hour earlier this weekend. Dont gotta stay up so late That's certainty one pro to the end of daylight savings, but it still doesn't makeup for the fact that the sun will have set by the time I leave work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Me too bud. Hope we get some good storms to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 6z has an awful lot of cold air in the middle to later in the run...hope it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: 6z has an awful lot of cold air in the middle to later in the run...hope it's on to something. Are you Thinksnow from the old WIVB Blog Don used to run, if so welcome! Me, Devin, and Ayuud migrated here a few years ago. Latest indexes still suggest a rather transient pattern with more cold air the farther northwest you go. In short a few warmer then normal days, a few colder than normal days for the next few weeks. The weeklies did suggest some possible sustained colder weather latter in the month but that's still way out there. Until we can get that Bering strait ridge to go away, any cold will not be lasting long with a pretty strong negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 Some pretty decent thunder and lightning late last night from the storms that went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Yes it is I! I have been hanging around the mid-Atlantic sub forum for about a year and a half trying to get my fix that way, but those guys are over the top! To your most recent post Cohen actually just mentioned that the ridge seems to be building in the bering straight and Asia would become much colder in the short term. I do like how a -qbo is showing up in the models as I believe that will help keep the pac fire hose we had last year from being constant. Great to be on here with you guys again and as always I am ready for our first event to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes it is I! I have been hanging around the mid-Atlantic sub forum for about a year and a half trying to get my fix that way, but those guys are over the top! To your most recent post Cohen actually just mentioned that the ridge seems to be building in the bering straight and Asia would become much colder in the short term. I do like how a -qbo is showing up in the models as I believe that will help keep the pac fire hose we had last year from being constant. Great to be on here with you guys again and as always I am ready for our first event to follow! It's good to have another poster from Buffalo here. I post quite a bit here and in the great lakes sub-forum as our weather is quite similar. It's usually quiet in here until winter and than it gets quite active. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some pretty decent thunder and lightning late last night from the storms that went through. It woke me up. Naturally, I had to crack the window to hear it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Looks like next Friday could be interesting. -15c air over 10c lake water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like next Friday could be interesting. -15c air over 10c lake water. I was just looking at that. Both the 12z and 18z GFS show a bit of an arctic blast. Not so much on the 0z or 6z so it will be interesting to see if future model runs continue to show the plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's good to have another poster from Buffalo here. I post quite a bit here and in the great lakes sub-forum as our weather is quite similar. It's usually quiet in here until winter and than it gets quite active. Welcome aboard! It's what us weenies look forward to all summer long, the opportunity to chase that first lake effect event. I have been out of the game for a bit but I am ready to go all in for this winter. Alot of mixed signals to this point so far but I like the promise the last few days have been showing in the article region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like next Friday could be interesting. -15c air over 10c lake water. You're right, it looks good with a NW flow too. First accumulations possible for Rochester towards Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It's what us weenies look forward to all summer long, the opportunity to chase that first lake effect event. I have been out of the game for a bit but I am ready to go all in for this winter. Alot of mixed signals to this point so far but I like the promise the last few days have been showing in the article region. There are some incredible meteorologist on these forums. I've learned so much the last few years here. There was a local one that lived in Buffalo but he got a job as a Meteorologist in Canada, he still posts here though. Me and Devin chased one in Springville last year, was so much fun. You can join us anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 41 minutes ago, stanleyjenkins said: I was just looking at that. Both the 12z and 18z GFS show a bit of an arctic blast. Not so much on the 0z or 6z so it will be interesting to see if future model runs continue to show the plunge. Euro shows as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 Should be cold enough for some flakes for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 Quite a bit of rain coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Given continuing model continuity, looks like today might not be a bad day to wheel the snow blower back into the garage for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 5 hours ago, stanleyjenkins said: Given continuing model continuity, looks like today might not be a bad day to wheel the snow blower back into the garage for the season. Things get more interesting late in the week, with 00Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS both trending MUCH colder than previous runs. Each dig a sharp trough into Northern New England by Friday with 850mb temperatures down to about -16C. The 00Z GGEM remains closer to previous guidance with 850mb temps +4C during the same time period. GFS ensembles reflect this uncertainty with a narrow majority supporting the colder operational run but several members close to the GGEM. The bottom line is the first real `winter` weather may arrive late this week, but the forecast for late in the week is highly uncertain. The forecast reflects this trend with much cooler forecast temperatures for Thursday and Friday, with a chance of lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes. Last GFS run doesn't show that arctic outbreak anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Gfs has been flipping for days with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2017 Author Share Posted November 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs has been flipping for days with this That's why you should use Ensembles not operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Euro still has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 4 hours ago, tim123 said: Euro still has it Latest NWS forecast discussion states just that, the GFS is the outlier at this moment and the NWS is going with the euro at this point. Even mention a burst of snow with the front Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Looks like another noisy night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Looks like another noisy night! Love it, some great thunderstorms for the last 2 weeks. Looks like more coming too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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