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Figured since it's October 1st and first flakes are a few weeks away I should get a new thread going. Looks like this winter is going to be either a Weak/Moderate La Nina. I went back through the years to see what that usually means for Buffalo. I matched it up with this graph showing the various Nino/Nina years. It looks like overall we do worse in Strong Ninos/Ninas. The correlation is tough to grasp, if there even is any. Our snowfall is do dependent on the lake and wind direction, only takes one storm to go above the 30 year seasonal average which is between 95-98" 

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d8mTLO5.png

Looks like a warm work week into the weekend and then another cooldown. Lots of ups and downs in the pattern the next few weeks. 

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7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

When don't they go cold and snowy for the northeast? 

I don't believe they did the last 2 years? We had early lake effect and record snowfall in Maine.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-2017-us-winter-forecast-northeast-above-normal-snow-freeze-hurt-citrus-south/60277878

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18 hours ago, tim123 said:

Get em every few years

Depending on how we quantify the way that it affects our area, the return interval of moderate or significant impact seems more like 5-7 years.  

Off the top of my head I can think of Sandy (2012), ike (2008), and Frances (2004.)  Irene (2011) caused some decent winds and waves on Ontario but that was about it.  

The very fast forward speed of Nate should keep him quite juicy as he moves through.  

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Couple inches of rain. Looks like we will be returning to a active wet pattern 

Funny for the last couple days it looked like the heaviest rain was going to be to the east of Buffalo (more towards your area). Now it looks like the heaviest will fall just to our west however even Buffalo looks to get a solid 1-2”. If we get more than 2” we could start having some flooding problem but less than that should be a welcome drink. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got the rain catcher outside to see how much falls for this event. 

No automatic alt text available.

Only 0.65” in the gauge here... we’ll be lucky if we get reach 1” total as the back edge of the rain looks like it’ll be here within a couple hours. Just to our west over the Niagara Peninsula they’ll have no problem hitting 2”. Looks like models were just about right on, perhaps a tiny bit too far east.

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4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Only 0.65” in the gauge here... we’ll be lucky if we get reach 1” total as the back edge of the rain looks like it’ll be here within a couple hours. Just to our west over the Niagara Peninsula they’ll have no problem hitting 2”. Looks like models were just about right on, perhaps a tiny bit too far east.

Ended up with 1.31" in the gauge here.

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely up there on my list too. Can't believe we got that much snow so early in October in lower elevations. Has to be once in century type stuff. 

I can’t believe it’s been 11 years, holy smokes. I remember it like it was yesterday. Certainly don’t think we’ll ever see a storm like that again in our lifetimes.

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