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October Banter String


George BM

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13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Still a chance this low bombs out at exactly the right spot, phasing with tropical system, putting a band of heavy moisture, in the middle would be heavy enough upper level cold being forced down for a big snow event 6"+. 1.46% chance. 

As in out in the Apps/west of I-81?

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5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I-95 maybe. Chance the low could bomb into the 950s... 

Play this scenario 100x with the way it looks now, 1 or 2 times is big snow event

just sayin

That would be an incredible surprise for that to happen. Sadly, it's October, and we have no cold air to work with.

I'm guessing that if this were December/January or even November, our odds would be better. Here's to hoping 

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Trough goes neg tilt but it happens a bit late for us. Big storm for New England though, 5-7 inches of life-giving rain along with refreshing, very strong winds, exciting coastal overwash and maybe even some property damage! By the time the system goes truly neg tilt, but by the time it really gets going, precip will be moving out and smashing SNE to smithereens. Probably a quarter to a third of an inch of rain for me, 4 hours total. Even with the tropical involvement - it gets going just a hair too late for us.

'Storm gets going a bit too late for us'.

We are going to hear that many, many times this fall/winter. It is courtesy of La Nina. We had best get used to it lol. We have high latitude blocking as well, STILL the storm goes neg tilt, gets going a just a bit too damned late for us.

I'd sell my very SOUL for one winter in New England.

We live in the worst place on earth. We cant get good rainstorms anymore and we wont get snow.

 

SNE will get in all likelihood, DAYS of steady to torrential rainfall. Visibilities will be shot completely to hell and they will be treated to battleship gray skies laden with heavy rain and whipped by refreshing winds. On the highways, it will be extremely fun as trucks will throw incredible amounts of water and spray onto car windshields! It will be utterly impossible to see to drive! Good Times! Too bad I will never get to experience that ever again, at least not until the early to middle 2020s.

This Nina will last for years!

The Mid Atlantic Formula: High latitude blocking + neg tilt trough + tropical entity involvement = EPIC, EPIC FAIL for us, in DC and the greater Mid Atlantic.

It will however be an EPIC WIN for SNE!!! 

The rich will get even richer. The poor........well, we know how that works out.

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Looks like two low pressure systems one of them just southeast of New Jersey and the other further Southeast in the ocean that consolidate eventually over Northern New York on the 12z GFS! And the negative tilt that occurs helps that ocean low consolidate with the other. Does anyone know if this is mimicking the infamous Veterans Day storm 20 or so years ago?

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33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Odd all the talk there has been of potentially seeing snow with this storm. Its not cold, and its October. Even Canaan will see at most a couple inches with snow showers on the backside Sunday night.

I'm with you. I'm looking forward to a windy, cold, driving rain. Too bad it'll be at its best during the overnight hours.

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53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Odd all the talk there has been of potentially seeing snow with this storm. Its not cold, and its October. Even Canaan will see at most a couple inches with snow showers on the backside Sunday night.

Man, y'alls memories are short.  What happens before a majority of our MECS?... (not a forecast)

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2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Looks like two low pressure systems one of them just southeast of New Jersey and the other further Southeast in the ocean that consolidate eventually over Northern New York on the 12z GFS! And the negative tilt that occurs helps that ocean low consolidate with the other. Does anyone know if this is mimicking the infamous Veterans Day storm 20 or so years ago?

You almost had me with a "like". lol

eta: That storm originated in Texas.

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm with you. I'm looking forward to a windy, cold, driving rain. Too bad it'll be at its best during the overnight hours.

Yeah bring the heavy rain. Much needed. Not sure I would call it cold though. Most of it will fall with temps in the 50s and 60s.

Our 33 and rain events are still a couple months away ;)

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Weather reports of this storm dont even mention Washington DC. That really bums me out.

Its clear its not going to get going until it is well north of us.

This is a New York State Special.

 

Washington is not even an afterthought, not even a footnote.

We are not even in the frame at all lol.

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Eastern VA well east of I 95 is going to JACKPOT with this storm. They will get even more life-giving rain than New York State. They will get so much heavy rain by Wednesday that they will get to enjoy frantic water rescues.

Forecast for Dale City remains on track, for a quarter to as much as a third of on inch of rain by early Tuesday. The KLWX forecasters love to throw around that DEFORMATION word. I don't see it. Maybe on the eastern Del Mar Va, but no effing way in Dale City. Maybe in a parallel universe.

Repeat after me, KLWX forecasters: We are in a LA Nina that will last us until at least late 2021. In the Mid Atlantic, La Nina brings much warmer and much much DRIER than normal weather. The Mid Atlantic will frequently TORCH. The Mid Atlantic will nearly always miss out on important rain events. This is because storms do not get going until they are east of northern Delaware. In the Mid Atlantic, LA Nina DEFIES average climatology, it brings highly abnormal dryness and heat. Read and Heed. And do us all a HUGE favor: Throw away that crack pipe! Get rid of the pot! It is killing your brain cells.

 

Can I have some of what they are smokin'? Because whatever it is they are smoking, it's fvcking chronic as hell. 

 

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I had no idea moles ate earthworms.  All the more reason to eradicate the varmints. 

Yup that's what they are after. Lots of money is wasted on grub killer. I fell for that early on lol.

Only way to really get rid of a mole is the traps, or a good cat.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup that's what they are after. Lots of money is wasted on grub killer. I fell for that early on lol.

Only way to really get rid of a mole is the traps, or a good cat.

Our dog (AmStaff mix) took care of any potential mole problems early on in his tenure with us.

He’s moved onto chipmunks now.

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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Our dog (AmStaff mix) took care of any potential mole problems early on in his tenure with us.

He’s moved onto chipmunks now.

Dogs work, but they generally aren't as "clean" as cats in getting the job done. They may wreck your lawn worse than the moles lol.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup that's what they are after. Lots of money is wasted on grub killer. I fell for that early on lol.

Only way to really get rid of a mole is the traps, or a good cat.

Try a pitchfork.  My grandpa used to sit on his porch with his coffee and watch for em.  When he'd see a mole trail progressing, he'd go out and start prodding several feet away from the end of the trail, working his way towards the end of the trail (in case the mole reversed when he heard g-pa coming).  Would jam the pitchfork into the trail at an angle to maximize the number of tines penetrating the trail.  When he got a wet spot on one of the tines, he knew he scored a hit.  Would give a few extra jabs in the same area for good measure.  No smell, no fuss and no holes from the dog digging up the yard.  Also had a dog he used to help him locate the moles to help determine where to apply the pitchfork.  Except sometimes the dog was lazy. 

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3 minutes ago, RDM said:

Try a pitchfork.  My grandpa used to sit on his porch with his coffee and watch for em.  When he'd see a mole trail progressing, he'd go out and start prodding several feet away from the end of the trail, working his way towards the end of the trail (in case the mole reversed when he heard g-pa coming).  Would jam the pitchfork into the trail at an angle to maximize the number of tines penetrating the trail.  When he got a wet spot on one of the tines, he knew he scored a hit.  Would give a few extra jabs in the same area for good measure.  No smell, no fuss and no holes from the dog digging up the yard.  Also had a dog he used to help him locate the moles to help determine where to apply the pitchfork.  Except sometimes the dog was lazy. 

Only once in 12 years have I seen a mole ridge moving. I grabbed a shovel and took care of that one. They seem to do their thing at night or when I am not looking lol. The spring loaded traps with the spikes work best for me. Just need to find their primary tunnel. That always leads into the woods, which completely surrounds my yard.

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