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October Discobs Thread


George BM

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Total from Nate: .08.  It is very dry here.  Hopefully we will get some rain tonight and tomorrow.  Maybe a half inch if lucky.  Been awhile since I have heard a lawn mower.  We have lots of fat pecans but the squirrels are plundering them before they drop.  No matter what I grow there is some animal, bird or bug that gets to it before it's quite ready to harvest.

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Other than rain/clouds keeping temps down, the upper level pattern has strong consensus for a persistent -pna for the next 10 days. GEFS flips it through d10-15 but that's way out there. It's going to be a while before we can get any sustained bn temps. If the GEFS is right with the big ridge in the west, the conus will prob get it's first legit cold air mass of the fall towards the end of the month. Until then....shorts and flip flops galore. 

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than rain/clouds keeping temps down, the upper level pattern has strong consensus for a persistent -pna for the next 10 days. GEFS flips it through d10-15 but that's way out there. It's going to be a while before we can get any sustained bn temps. If the GEFS is right with the big ridge in the west, the conus will prob get it's first legit cold air mass of the fall towards the end of the month. Until then....shorts and flip flops galore. 

I read that the Euro weeklies hold the pattern through the end of the month, so although it may not be as hot and humid as it has been the last few days, my gut says we get a flip in NOV. That's a good time for a flip imho too. Mid-late NOV flips usually have some staying power.

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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I read that the Euro weeklies hold the pattern through the end of the month, so although it may not be as hot and humid as it has been the last few days, my gut says we get a flip in NOV. That's a good time for a flip imho too. Mid-late NOV flips usually have some staying power.

Wouldn't be surprised if it holds in general. It's all pac driven and this is the time of year where troughs in the east pac can persist. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than rain/clouds keeping temps down, the upper level pattern has strong consensus for a persistent -pna for the next 10 days. GEFS flips it through d10-15 but that's way out there. It's going to be a while before we can get any sustained bn temps. If the GEFS is right with the big ridge in the west, the conus will prob get it's first legit cold air mass of the fall towards the end of the month. Until then....shorts and flip flops galore. 

Looks like we might at least get some seasonal air sneaking under the UL ridge this time next week.  Highs in the 60s will feel glorious.  

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52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like we might at least get some seasonal air sneaking under the UL ridge this time next week.  Highs in the 60s will feel glorious.  

Yea, we'll definitely get some "normal" October days but the balance looks warm on average. My post was mostly aimed at first freeze and stuff like that. I'm thinking I made a mistake going to late for IAD/BWI in the contest. If the ridge on the GEFS is real then getting a blast of legit cool Oct air with freezes in the burbs seems more likely than not hitting a freeze by the end of the month. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw 3knam and it has lots of areas north of i70 doing well.. we all need it for sure.

Looks better for the the tidewater and coastal parts of our area to me. 12km NAM too. Maybe some 2"+ in those areas.

Might be a bit overdone. I would be happy with an inch imby.

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw 3knam and it has lots of areas north of i70 doing well.. we all need it for sure.

Edit.. that's the Euro. 3k nam looks good for most .

Yeah, Euro is more like it. Heavy stuff up your way, and also down towards the beaches, light stuff in between lol

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, we'll definitely get some "normal" October days but the balance looks warm on average. My post was mostly aimed at first freeze and stuff like that. I'm thinking I made a mistake going to late for IAD/BWI in the contest. If the ridge on the GEFS is real then getting a blast of legit cool Oct air with freezes in the burbs seems more likely than not hitting a freeze by the end of the month. 

I like your pics for the first freeze for early Nov.    I can’t believe I went with late October for IAD and 10 days later for BWI.  My rationale was the bay has to be a furnace and will prevent 32F.    I have remorse about my choices but too late now.  I put DCA in early Dec.  that I feel good about.

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