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October Discobs Thread


George BM

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16 minutes ago, Jebman said:

On radar, yellows are moving east and are going POOF! Gone. Should be light fast moving sprinkles around midnight, then breezy and warm. Ditto for the rest of the week on into what should be mainly a dry weekend (except for the Midwest, AGAIN lol).

Doing nothing but going poof on my doorstep so far.  As usual, no such problems with under-performing winds.

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BTR made an oopsie ;)

Anytime you see a cell ID, that's more than likely cell motion not wind. 

You need to check velocity for wind speed potential. 

Not to mention, for 77kt wind you wouldn't be seeing a lack of LSRs. 77kts would be widespread destruction along the path. Derecho style wind. Max potential will be around 50mph probably. 

Further, those winds are not going to be out of the north either. 

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3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

.08 so far. Big gust to 21 earlier. I can't contain myself. 

Seriously, it's nice to get some rain and have cooler temps in the near term. Very disappointed in the fall foliage though. Very bland. 

And very brown/shriveling.

The showers around Arlington VA gave maybe a quarter-inch.

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Have to start casually watching the latter half of the weekend for some action. Looks like all of the guidance has another event with a potential tropical connection. 

       I'm buying the potential for a widespread soaker Sunday, although I'm a little cautious based on last night's event looking a lot better 5 days out too.....

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22 minutes ago, high risk said:

       I'm buying the potential for a widespread soaker Sunday, although I'm a little cautious based on last night's event looking a lot better 5 days out too.....

Ens mean looks better for the upcoming event. Unless I missed some runs, ens mean precip never looked like a strong signal for the overnight deal.  The GEFS is showing over 1" mean precip for the weekend. That's pretty good for d5+

This event is a bit different in that there is a very strong closed ULL dropping into the MW and a subtropical moisture feed/energy interacting. Good dynamics but it needs to line up right. It's going to be a narrow band of heavy precip.  "Someone" is probably going to get a nice soaker. 0z euro says 95 and east is the bullseye. I'm sure ops will move the stripe around every 6-12 hours. lol

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Hmmmm

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   In general, the latest available medium range model output suggests
   that a digging short wave impulse may contribute to further
   amplification of large-scale troughing east of the Rockies late this
   week.  This feature may then quickly pivot eastward toward the
   Atlantic Seaboard through the weekend, accompanied by a reinforcing
   cold intrusion across the Plains/Mississippi Valley, into the
   northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Ahead of this front, models indicate
   that potential exists for significant surface cyclogenesis along a
   remnant prior front returning northward toward the southern Atlantic
   coast.  It appears that this could be accompanied by a rapid and
   substantive inland moisture return off the western Atlantic, and
   (across at least portions of southern Florida) the Caribbean.  It is
   possible that associated warm sector destabilization in the presence
   of strengthening shear may lead to at least some increase in severe
   weather potential across parts of the southern through middle
   Atlantic Coast region.  

   At the present time, guidance seems to maximize this potential early
   Sunday across parts of eastern North Carolina into the Virginia
   Tidewater.  However, the spread within the ensemble output
   concerning these developments remains sizable, and uncertainties
   still appear too large to allow a forecast of 15 percent severe
   probabilities at this time.
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12z GFS looks decent for some possible storms and heavy rain Sunday afternoon into evening (see hrs 126-132)

Monday highs look to be around 50... sounding at DCA for 18z MON shows temp 52 degrees (from TT)... upslope snow showers possible late Sunday night into Mon morning if enough moisture left, which 12z GFS shows there is at hr 144

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS looks decent for some possible storms and heavy rain Sunday afternoon into evening (see hrs 126-132)

Monday highs look to be around 50... sounding at DCA for 18z MON shows temp 52 degrees (from TT)... upslope snow showers possible late Sunday night into Mon morning if enough moisture left, which 12z GFS shows there is at hr 144

12z GGEM has the same... perhaps a bit stronger in the storm/heavy rain department... at 126 12z GGEM has a 997mb SLP on the W VA/E WV border

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Some light snow looks to be possible in higher elevations Wed night per LWX afternoon AFD:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A third cold front, this one weaker than both of its
predecessors, will cross the region late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This third front precedes the strong upper trough.
Thus, Wednesday will start out with lingering clouds from the
overnight frontal passage, turn out mostly sunny for a time,
then see increasing clouds late. Temperatures will be cooler,
with highs staying below normal for the first time in what feels
like ages (but will actually only be the first time since the
middle of last week). As the front and upper trough crosses the
region overnight, some upslope showers look likely along the
Allegany Front, and at higher elevations, some light snow looks
likely, though accumulations are uncertain. Further east, a lot
of uncertainty whether anything can reach the ground, but a few
models suggest some showers might make it into the Blue Ridge or
even VA Piedmont, so something to watch. Lows will be much
cooler, with 40s and 30s common - could be some frost if there
is enough clearing, but clouds may limit that potential

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