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October Discobs Thread


George BM

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I am not surprised - rain chance has been trimmed to only 40 percent. Expect this trend tonight and tomorrow as well. The boss rain hoggs down in central VA got all the rain. We won't get shyte.

I am sick with disappointment. Its gonna happen a lot this fall and winter. Dry is the operative word here - clear into late fall in 2018.

NEVER be prudent. I mowed my lawn yesterday, to get it done before the rain. Now, we are DRY. We need to do all we can to make it rain - wash and wax our cars, leave expensive stereo equipment outside, do everything we can to get some rain. We all need to do rain dances and chant like the American Indians.

 

Welcome to La Nina - relatively warm and dry - in Washington.

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On 10/9/2017 at 5:34 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

This sultry airmass can get outa here anytime now.

But we knew we were gonna pay when much of August was more like early October. Thats just how things roll here.

We pay for a -1.5 August with a +8 October.

Gotta love global warming.

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I congratulate those who got to enjoy heavy rain tonight. It is way overdue.

These showers are falling apart just before they get to me lol. I have light drizzle, about four drizzle particles per square foot.

The looooooong wait for genuine rain goes on.

I've been strikin' out a lot lately with rain chances.

 

While I am 99 percent unlucky with respect to rainfall, I am MUCH LUCKIER on the slots lol. Too damn BAD I can't even buy a heavy shower.

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Okay so I got a moderate shower after all.

It took me a while to figure out what the racket was. Its been so damned long.

La Ninas are so hard to deal with, they are so damned DRY, California wildfire DRY. And HOT, I expect Halloween to be 70 degrees, Thanksgiving to be 70 degrees, and Xmas to be about 68 degrees, with 67 dewpoints. New Year's Eve will be about 64 degrees, with drizzle. In late January 2018 a potent Miller B will give us drizzle and 58 degrees, then redevelop off north Del, and then move to The Benchmark, and bury Boston alive in 6 feet of wind driven snow. La Ninas have a tendency to bury New England alive in extremely deep snow.

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OK, the other 'wet' streak continues, but not by a lot. 6th straight day with measurable and up to 3.11. It is misting/drizzling now, and 0.01 is in gauge since 7 am dump so the streak will continue tomorrow with 7/3.12 at least. Amazing after the previous 4 weeks of almost total dryness. Color is awesome out there right now, btw,  for those wanting to check it out this weekend.

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@losetoa6 check out this panel. Freeze on the mean @iad. Impressive.

gfs_T2m_neus_52.png

 

Eps is now showing the ridge building in the west day 10 so the pattern flip is starting to lock in. I had a hunch a couple days ago when the gefs started showing the ridge in the west that my first freeze guesses were in trouble.  Lol. I almost never go late either. Prob picked the wrong year.  

Eta: I'm a dummy. I was looking at the op thinking I clicked gefs. Gefs still chilly on the mean at very long leads. 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_64.png

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