NNE Fall Thread

[backedgeapproaching]

24 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Nice to see the uptick on the map as we get closer to the storm  Waiting on the discussion to update.

Complete opposite down here...every update is a downgrade as the primary seems to track further N with every model run.

[Hitman]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Well they do mention the slight chance p-type might become a problem in the southern CPV so we shall see.

and its a good thing they have that 50-100" color, because you know, the day after tomorrow is coming.

[eyewall]

Just now, Hitman said:

and its a good thing they have that 50-100" color, because you know, the day after tomorrow is coming.

LOL well we did have the 30" event last winter. 

[borderwx]

8F sunset. Waited a little to long to hang the lights on the tree:)

DSCN0953 by Chad, on Flickr

 

[ApacheTrout]

55 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well they do mention the slight chance p-type might become a problem in the southern CPV so we shall see.

Aw man, them's fighting words.  Deeply insulting yo mama is a.....  type words.  Why they gotta go there?  I thought teh internet was s'posed to be a force for good, and here we see the BTV mets abusing it with terms that slip past my firewall's filter.  Gotta leave them a terse reply in my CoCoRahs report tomorrow morning that there are indeed women and children reading their forecasts.

[eyewall]

Gusty winds at higher elevations made for tricky flight this afternoon:

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 16.5 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

 

The second collection from the moderating polar front moving though the area this morning was identical to the first in both amount and density.  We cleared out fully today, so that marks the end of that event.  Next up for potential snowfall is the clipper coming into the area tonight.

[adk]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

odd to see the best snow on the leeward side of the foothills of the dacks, but makes sense with the track of the clipper and strong SE winds with WAA.  Often times the best snows are on the NW side of Lake Placid with LES setups and some synoptic storms (NW flow events) but with this storm the SE foothills should do well...Gore and Whiteface should do well.

I think Whiteface will do very well with moisture streaming up the CPV today.  They do well when there is a strong southerly component to the winds - sw flow events also smoke the face. 

Looks like we have about an inch so far in BTV.  NWS says 7" possible by tomorrow night....Would be nice. I actually can't remember the last year we had some decent CPV snow before christmas that hung around and made it look nice. 2013 maybe?

[eyewall]

Snowing steadily in Winooski. Eyeballing about 1.5 so far.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.0

Snow Density: 5.9% H2O

Temperature: 22.8 F

Sky: Snow (3-8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

[alex]

Coming down heavily. Hard to tell how much we've gotten due to the wind, I'll go out and figure it out later

[backedgeapproaching]

ALY AFD was mentioning a blocked flow tomorrow for usplope looking at the BTV 4kM.  Down here, that is better for the Taconics, not quite as good for me personally. Not sure if the flow with vary a bit or of its blocked for most of the event.

I haven't looked at BTV AFD, but Im sure they have been all over this.

 

I

 

[powderfreak]

Some good echoes lately in the Stowe/Waterbury area on the east slope.

The SSE flow does well in that area.

 

[eyewall]

3 inches or so here in the Banana Belt so far.

[J.Spin]

22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like at least 4-5" in Stowe so far.

 

Snow total here at the house as of ~10:30 A.M. was 5.2”, so it sounds right in line with what you’ve been hearing.  I cleared our webcam snowboard before this event, and I’m leaving it alone until tomorrow, so you can monitor that and get a sense of settled accumulations in the area for this event while you’re away.  I’m at home today, so I should be able to get a noontime snow and liquid measurement.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Snow total here at the house as of ~10:30 A.M. was 5.2”, so it sounds right in line with what you’ve been hearing.  I cleared our snowboard webcam before this event, and I’m leaving it alone until tomorrow, so you can monitor that and get a sense of settled accumulations in the area for this event while you’re away.

Thanks J!  Looks nice up there.  

 

[eyewall]

4.3" in Winooski as of 12pm. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 6.8” Snow/0.36” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 5.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.26 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 19.6

Snow Density: 5.1% H2O

Temperature: 29.3 F

Sky: Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

 

I’m not sure if we’re 6” or 7” in 12 hours here to verify a Winter Storm Warning, but I’d say we’ll probably do that either way, even if the snow did start in the wee hours this morning.

[adk]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

4.3" in Winooski as of 12pm. 

About that in BTV. 

Actually performing as modeled. That's nice.  

PF and I disagree on this but I am always so skeptical and non-plussed about events with s/se winds. I should change my tune. 

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, adk said:

About that in BTV. 

Actually performing as modeled. That's nice.  

PF and I disagree on this but I am always so skeptical and non-plussed about events with s/se winds. I should change my tune. 

Latitude makes the difference.  When I lived in northern Maine, I noted that most of the biggest snowstorms came on SE winds.  If the direction was north of due east, it was generally a miss/graze.  The thaws came when the wind was south, and strong.  (There are exceptions, of course.  The most powerful blizzard in my 10 years there came on NE winds.  Maybe its having been on April 7-8 made the difference.)

[ApacheTrout]

4.8 inches here.

 

[eyewall]

Shots from just before midday:

[wxeyeNH]

I'm closing in on 6".   Watching that changeover line to my SE.  Obviously, at 23F and CAD I will not get above freezing but pingers will get close.  I don't think they will make it...

Storms like this make me feel bad for the SNE guys.

[eyewall]

We may have some p-type problems and a little taint here in the CPV soon. We are right at freezing now. We have to wait for the backside and see if the flow is blocked enough. It is looking a lot more "sleety" out there now.

[backedgeapproaching]

51 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm closing in on 6".   Watching that changeover line to my SE.  Obviously, at 23F and CAD I will not get above freezing but pingers will get close.  I don't think they will make it...

Storms like this make me feel bad for the SNE guys.

I don't think they are losing any sleep of you spitting snow grains or smoking cirrus when they are pounding +SN during a coastal. So dont feel too bad...lol

[eyewall]

Looks like any pellets have given way to all snow once again.

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[eyewall]

Some of the best snow of the day falling as of 3:30pm.

[adk]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Some of the best snow of the day falling as of 3:30pm.

Back to some very light snow now after a break at about 4;00.  Really just effect snow now with small dendrites. 

Flow looks to flip around to the NW at around 10pm tonight with good snow growth and lift in the early AM hours. The RH  thins out at 700mb after 10am or so ...with fingers crossed places like stowe and Jay could have 72 hour totals of 24"+....which is pretty awesome for the Vermont economy the week before the Holiday season kicks off.

[PowderBeard]

The moisture and flow look to be present for quite a while (overnight Thursday) for Bolton - north . Hope it just keeps going. I'm optimistic 24" could be on the low end. 

[eyewall]

5 inches in the Noosk.

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