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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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I had a "near" Santa Claus type visit yesterday.  

I had heard that on-air Boston Meteorologists Matt Noyes  (NBC Boston and NECN Boston)  and his Meteorologist wife Danielle Niles (WBZ  Boston) had bought a weekend house adjacent to me.  Their driveway enters the road just below ours so I had not bumped into them yet. I have wanted to stop by but didn't want to intrude but the curiosity got the best of me yesterday.  I saw their car in the driveway so I just knocked on the door.  I introduced myself as their neighbor and they insisted I come in.  I ended up staying for well over an hour.  Really nice people.  I didn't want to come across as a complete weather weenie so the conversation was a mix of weather, the area and just general stuff. but them and us.  They love NNE and want to eventually move up here.  Since they are recognized on the street so much down there its an escape to come north since few people know who they are.   Matt is a total weather freak.  He loves my weather cam. Said he will be bookmarking on his phone so he will know what is going on in the local hood.  I told them that if they need the heat turned up etc. before they come up on weekends to just let me know.  They seemed very excited to have a neighbor willing to do such things.  I told him I need a new Davis station and he wants to help me set it up so that it can broadcast to the web without my PC having to be on.  Just real nice people and great to have 2 Mets as neighbors! 

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Wow Eyewall.  So many oak leaves remain!

Yeah it was surprising. What you don't see was the number of uprooted trees from the wind storm on the east side of the pond.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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N

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah it was surprising. What you don't see was the number of uprooted trees from the wind storm on the east side of the pond.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk
 

That's something I did notice on my way up to Bretton Woods from Thornton. Wondering what kind of an impact it's going to have on skiing in the woods this winter? 

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41 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Sand grains falling in the Noosk.

 

Yeah, I came out of lecture a bit before noon here on the UVM campus and it was snowing with patches of dusty accumulations here and there. 

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As the models have been alluding to for a bit, there are a couple of interesting periods to watch for potential snow over the next several days.  The first is Thursday, and the second is Sunday into Monday.  Related excerpts from the most recent BTV NWS forecast discussion are below

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

643 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

As of 436 AM EST Tuesday... A cold front will move through the area Thursday with a chance of rain showers changing to snow showers mainly in the higher terrain later in the day with a NW upslope flow expected.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Any rain showers will be changing to snow showers behind the cold front Saturday night with Lake Ontario and upslope snow showers continuing Sunday and Monday.

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I need to make a quick run up to the NEK on Friday to pick my kids up from school for the turkey day break. Think I'm ok to leave the warm season tires on or should I swap before I leave? Any snowy roads could be a hassle with the tires that are on the car right now. Thanks.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 28.0 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

I arrived at the Waterbury Park and Ride yesterday evening to find light snow falling and accumulating on my car.  The snow continued back to the house, but the snow was so light, and the flakes small enough, that I really didn’t expect any accumulation.  I didn’t even check on the BTV NWS forecast discussion to find the origin of the snow – I figured it would go down as a trace and that would be that.

 

This morning I’d already entered and sent in my CoCoRaHS data at a trace of new snow, when low and behold I happened to go outside and realized that there was a bit of new accumulation.  After measurement I had to go back and edit my entry to indicate that there was a tenth of an inch.  That of course meant I needed to know the origin of the snow for my records, and thanks to the helpful BTV NWS forecast discussion archive system, I was able to find out that it was a from a weak shortwave trough, although I guess the low level inversion could be involved as well, since we sometimes have light flakes falling out of those.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1022 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

As of 1016 PM EST Tuesday...Well, it`s November in the North Country and that can only mean 1 thing...clouds, clouds and more clouds (maybe that`s 3?). Despite surface high pressure and mid-level ridging building over the region, a pesky low level inversion has kept extensive cloud cover over the Northeast and upstream across Canada and the eastern Great Lakes today. We`ve even seen some isolated snow showers and flurries across the area with a weak shortwave trough moving north of the region this morning.

 

Well, that’s the snowfall story for now – there’s actually still snow hanging around from last week’s snow events, so that has had some impressive staying power for this early in the season.

 

I was looking at the forecast and it appears as though our next chance for snow is tonight into tomorrow – the focus certainly seems to be over the higher elevations, but we’ll see if anything happens in the lower elevations along the spine.

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Below I’ve got the thoughts from the BTV NWS on the upcoming storm.  Looking at several of the models, on all of them I’m seeing the 540 dam line well south of the area during the precipitation, so it’s hard to imagine that there’s going to be much to interfere with keeping the precipitation as snow above 3,000’.  In line with that, the BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions 4 or 5 inches above 3,000’, and the Mansfield point forecast suggests accumulations of 4 to 8 inches at elevation.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

701 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 420 AM EST Wednesday...The short term will feature developing northwesterly low-level upslope flow of 25 to 30 knots as the main forcing for lift transitions from the thermodynamics with the upper trof to orographic. Cold air advection will commence as 925mb temps around 0C fall to -12C by Fri morn so any rain showers will change to snow showers as freezing levels lower from around 3000 ft to the surface area wide by around 06z. Upslope forcing will peak out 06-09z with Froude numbers just below 1 suggesting precip/snowfall mainly at and just west of the summits with little in the valleys. Snow showers will gradually dry up by mid morning with moisture decreasing and rising heights aloft. Not expecting a whole lot of QPF Thursday night into Friday, mainly 0.10 or less to as much as 0.40 at some of the summits. Could be a inch or less of snow on the higher terrain mainly on the western slopes but increasing as you go up in elevation 4 or 5 inches at the summits above 3000 ft.

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Today is one of those days I feel I live in the twilight zone.  Zero discussion on the boards in any thread about tomorrow.  Other than  Alex and me no other high elevation posters in the Whites or high foothills to discuss. The storm tomorrow that could give the Whites a good paste job.   Nonevent for everyone else so no discussion.     

Right now I guess its wait and see.  Perhaps cold rain with cat paws or maybe the rain going back to big non-accumulating flakes.  I'll watch the models closely all by my lonesome....

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34 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Today is one of those days I feel I live in the twilight zone.  Zero discussion on the boards in any thread about tomorrow.  Other than  Alex and me no other high elevation posters in the Whites or high foothills to discuss. The storm tomorrow that could give the Whites a good paste job.   Nonevent for everyone else so no discussion.     

 

LOL, no kidding, but it’s sort of par for the course in the forum and the NNE thread.  Right now there’s pages of discussion about weenie disgruntlement over November snow that, realistically, climatologically, etc., isn’t even a “thing” for the most part, while there’s an imminent snowstorm approaching the region.  But, it’s nearly irrelevant to most, and discussion of the overall pattern is important.  I’m sure Powderfreak, adk, eyewall, etc. will comment on the upcoming threat as their time permits, but it is a bit like being in the twilight zone.  Fortunately the NWS folks are paid to discuss it, although I know things are a little more distant from the main forecast office over in the Whites, so it doesn’t quite get the coverage that the Greens do, being only 10-15 miles or so from BTV.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

LOL, no kidding, but it’s sort of par for the course in the forum and the NNE thread.  Right now there’s pages of discussion about weenie disgruntlement over November snow that, realistically, climatologically, etc., isn’t even a “thing” for the most part, while there’s an imminent snowstorm approaching the region.  But, it’s nearly irrelevant to most, and discussion of the overall pattern is important.  I’m sure Powderfreak, adk, eyewall, etc. will comment on the upcoming threat as their time permits, but it is a bit like being in the twilight zone.  Fortunately the NWS folks are paid to discuss it, although I know things are a little more distant from the main forecast office over in the Whites, so it doesn’t quite get the coverage that the Greens do, being only 10-15 miles or so from BTV.

The first rule of Fight Club is that you don't talk about Fight club. 

In all fairness, the Thursday thing wasn't looking like much of a thing until VERY recently. And when things don't look like things in November, they likely AREN'T things.....but now it looks like a thing...at least above 2500 feet. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh. Congrats higher els.

Meh for you but getting very close for me. 12Z GFS ticked colder.  Cold rain for me or big parachutes up at my hilltop while it rains 600 feet below?

Edit. New weatherlink ip data logger coming today. Maybe I can get my Davis station online for tomorrow...

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Meh for you but getting very close for me. 12Z GFS ticked colder.  Cold rain for me or big parachutes up at my hilltop while it rains 600 feet below?

Not my point. I don't understand the complaining about SNE posters when it's a tiny % of higher el people possibly being affected by this in NNE.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not my point. I don't understand the complaining about SNE posters when it's a tiny % of higher el people possibly being affected by this in NNE.

I didn't mean to be complaining its just that I miss the good Met input for a potentially interesting situation for me.  Don't expect them to discuss since its not relevant.  I just sometimes wish there were more posters up here. You are the only one in my area with deep knowledge and even your situation can be different than mine.

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