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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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6 hours ago, J.Spin said:

The latest update BTV NWS forecast discussion on tomorrow night’s potential snow is below – there’s some nice discussion of applying their snow squall forecast methodology:

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 329 AM EST Wednesday...Coldest airmass of the early winter season is poised to move across our cwa during this time period and a few of us who live at 44 degrees north latitude to experience winter are extremely excited. Models in very good agreement showing potent 5h energy diving southeast associated with digging mid/upper level trof...while sharp modified arctic boundary is approaching the SLV by 00z. This cold front will quickly sweep across our cwa on Thursday Night...with a period of rain/snow showers...along with a few embedded snow squalls...especially over northern NY/VT.

 

The locally developed snow squall parameter shows values 5-7 between 03-09z Friday...indicating good instability, moisture, and lift is present. NAM12/4km show sfc based CAPE values btwn 125 and 150 J/kg...with sharp convergence...and strong 925mb fgen forcing to enhance lift...while pw values range btwn 0.25 and 0.50. All these parameter support the idea of some embedded snow squalls associated with arctic boundary on Thursday Night...so have continued with +SW for northern NY into parts of central/northern VT. Initially boundary layer temps will support a mix of rain/snow in the valleys with progged snow levels around 2000 feet...before quickly crashing behind boundary. As quickly as snow level drop to the valley flow...deep layer moisture is rapidly shifting east and llvls are drying out on gusty west to northwest winds. Bottom line expect an inch or two of snow above 1000 feet and a dusting to maybe an inch in the valleys by early Friday morning. A few slippery spots are possible during the Friday morning commute with some black ice and snow covered roads.

 

 

And of course who wouldn’t enjoy that comment to start off the short term forecast:

 

...and a few of us who live at 44 degrees north latitude to experience winter are extremely excited.

Yes! I'm at 44.1970° N!

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Some intense lightning with the Front here in Burlington/Winooski. We shall see if a flip to snow occurs at all.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Some intense lightning with the Front here in Burlington/Winooski. We shall see if a flip to snow occurs at all.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk
 

I wasn't expecting a thunderstorm before this arctic front! 

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.19” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 25.9 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

 

Well, the accumulating snowfall season is underway now at our site, and it certainly came in with a bang.  The snowfall with the frontal passage was pretty typical, but the dramatic thunder and lightning associated with it was quite impressive.  We picked up a pretty good shot of liquid (0.14”) as the event unfolded, and then around 2:00 A.M. the change to snow began, and we picked up another 0.05” of liquid as snow.

 

Snow totals dropped off as I headed east into Waterbury, and really disappeared heading west – I didn’t see much of anything more than a trace west of Bolton Flats, and it doesn’t look like the Burlington area picked up anything at all.

 

On the climatology side, we had that first trace of snow back on October 31st, which already set the latest date in that category, and I was wondering if that might be the same with respect to this accumulation.  It turns out that this year’s date of November 10th is late (mean is October 26th) but it actually falls in second place.  The latest in my records for first accumulating snow is the 2007-2008 season with November 16th.  I don’t think there would be any complaints around here if this season wanted to behave like that one.

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I drove route 15 to Jeffersonville and then 108 to the notch. The first dusting was seen just past the mill in Jericho. Jeffersonville had up to an inch and it was 2-3 at the notch entrance. It is still snowing at times in Jeffersonville to the notch.

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can't believe the 12pm temperatures look like this:

4,000ft... 2F

1,500ft... 12F

700ft... 17F (MVL with -SN)

This is quite the impressive cold shot.

 

More impressive is what the Midnight temps looked like in comparison

 

10 Nov 12:00 am 31 15 SW 34G55    0.00    

 

Nothing like a 30 degree tumble in 12 hours. 

 

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35 minutes ago, adk said:

Skiing happened. 

That's actual snow from the sky too. 

23415334_10100368715163695_802998165612873780_o.jpg

 

Nice, I’m guessing natural over a manmade base?

 

PF, have you received any numbers for accumulations up high?  I know you mentioned a couple of inches at the base in an earlier post.

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29 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Nice, I’m guessing natural over a manmade base?

 

PF, have you received any numbers for accumulations up high?  I know you mentioned a couple of inches at the base in an earlier post.

From snowmakers (as well as adk and crew) I think its pretty even over the elevations.  I went 2-2" in my notes.

It may be more like 1.5"-2.5" (base to top) or something but given the actual precipitation time was fairly limited to about 60-90 minutes, it would've been hard to get more than 2-3" up high.  Given the wind though, I'm sure it has blown in and I can see scouring/drifting up on the trails as it is.  Overall, I think it was pretty evenly distributed. 

The overnight crew said it started as straight snow up at the mountain (thundersnow) with several very close strikes.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

From snowmakers (as well as adk and crew) I think its pretty even over the elevations.  I went 2-2" in my notes.

It may be more like 1.5"-2.5" (base to top) or something but given the actual precipitation time was fairly limited to about 60-90 minutes, it would've been hard to get more than 2-3" up high.  Given the wind though, I'm sure it has blown in and I can see scouring/drifting up on the trails as it is.  Overall, I think it was pretty evenly distributed. 

The overnight crew said it started as straight snow up at the mountain (thundersnow) with several very close strikes.

Yeah, those were CGs, none of that weak sauce IC stuff.

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Yea, I'd say it was 1-2.5" maybe  3" ...but who knows really. Plenty of wind movement. 

It was natural over manmade base...but let me tell you that man made base is about has manmade as it gets right now. Sometimes with real low temps you'll get almost powder blown out the guns. Nope. Not now. It's real wet paste.  The upper mtn had the guns off and so the piles were drained and a little firmer. The lower mountain....welll.....that was hell. Almost would have preferred to duck over and ski the fast grass....

 

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4 minutes ago, adk said:

Yea, I'd say it was 1-2.5" maybe  3" ...but who knows really. Plenty of wind movement. 

It was natural over manmade base...but let me tell you that man made base is about has manmade as it gets right now. Sometimes with real low temps you'll get almost powder blown out the guns. Nope. Not now. It's real wet paste.  The upper mtn had the guns off and so the piles were drained and a little firmer. The lower mountain....welll.....that was hell. Almost would have preferred to duck over and ski the fast grass....

 

Thanks for the update ADK, sounds like the mountain is putting down some durable stuff at this point.  I’m sure they want a base that will hold up to anything at this stage of the season to weather any potential thaws and skier traffic.  At least there’s some base in place for earning a few turns over the next week ahead of opening.  Another round of natural on top would be nice, but it looks like the most substantial chance coming up isn’t until Thursday.  There’s possibly a touch of snow in that Monday impulse, but it really seems like it want to die before it gets here.

 

On the new snow note, we actually picked up more snow this morning here at the house than we did yesterday morning, and we’ve still got some light snow falling.  There’s not nearly as much moisture in this stuff though, it appears to be lake-effect/upslope fluff based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion.  It’s definitely making it picturesque out there though.  I’ll have the numbers in just a bit.

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Just now, eyewall said:

A few flakes flying here this morning courtesy of the lake.

 

Yeah, we’re getting them over here along the spine as well – BTV NWS says we’re getting some upslope enhancement here to boost the effect.

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Yeah, we’re getting them over here along the spine as well – BTV NWS says we’re getting some upslope enhancement here to boost the effect.

Yeah the radar definitely shows that signature.

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah the radar definitely shows that signature.

 

I just took a look – if anything, it looks like it’s actually building over this way a bit more.

 

11NOV17A.gif

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I just took a look – if anything, it looks like it’s actually building over this way a bit more.

 

11NOV17A.gif&key=fa99ff7353427284cb6b7135cc36b43ff0c6411893d46dee9189efe755e24c07

Yeah the bands overall appear to be pulsing up. The Bolton webcam is clearly picking it up on top of the snowmaking.

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Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 17.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

 

I was surprised to see it snowing again last night, and the flakes were still floating down this morning.  A check on the BTV NWS forecast discussion gave me the lowdown:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

434 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 430 AM EST Saturday...Pre-dawn IR imagery still showing abundant upslope cloudiness across n-central/nern VT and across the Adirondacks. Also seeing some low clouds produced across the VT side of the Champlain Valley, a function of a strong moisture flux from Lake Champlain where water temperatures remain in the low 50s. However, as high pressure builds ewd across NY/New England, should see increased subsidence and decreasing upslope flow, allowing these clouds to generally dissipate.

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 30.6 F

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

I couldn’t get more than a trace out of the cores from this morning’s snowfall, so that’s the way this liquid report will have to go.

 

With a couple of accumulating snowfall events in the books now, and the first third of November down, I just checked to see where the season is sitting with respect to average.  November can be quire variable even here, but after getting a bit behind with the warm October, the numbers say we’re actually right on track at this point.  1.4” on the season is very much in line with the mean (1.2”) and median (1.4”) snowfall for the date.  Standard deviation is ± 0.8” for this date.

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5 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

Thanks for the update ADK, sounds like the mountain is putting down some durable stuff at this point.  I’m sure they want a base that will hold up to anything at this stage of the season to weather any potential thaws and skier traffic.  At least there’s some base in place for earning a few turns over the next week ahead of opening.  Another round of natural on top would be nice, but it looks like the most substantial chance coming up isn’t until Thursday.  There’s possibly a touch of snow in that Monday impulse, but it really seems like it want to die before it gets here.

 

On the new snow note, we actually picked up more snow this morning here at the house than we did yesterday morning, and we’ve still got some light snow falling.  There’s not nearly as much moisture in this stuff though, it appears to be lake-effect/upslope fluff based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion.  It’s definitely making it picturesque out there though.  I’ll have the numbers in just a bit.

Yeah it's all production snow, all the banks are open on every gun, putting as much water as possible out on the hill.  

Whats the saying?  It's all about that QPF?

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's all production snow, all the banks are open on every gun, putting as much water as possible out on the hill.  

Whats the saying?  It's all about that QPF?

…It’s something along the lines of "bass is for base", "top it with treble", etc.

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