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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

As of roughly midnight last night there was a final tenth of an inch of snow that was obviously from Winter Storm Benji based on the radar, and I figured that would be it for the event.  However, this morning there was actually a total of 0.5” of snow on the snowboard, and the additional snow really seemed to be of a different origin because it was extremely dry and fluffy.  So something clearly snuck in there overnight.  Diving into the BTV NWS forecast discussion, this snow seemed to align best with this part of the discussion:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 617 AM EST Sunday...Area of light snow has flared up in the vicinity of Lake Champlain this morning with activity expected to hold together through mid-morning as it moves only slowly eastward. Have updated forecast to account for this enhanced area of light snow that may put down a dusting to two inches of snow over parts of northwest Vermont this morning.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 911 AM EST Sunday...No changes were needed with this update. Two areas of light snow continue to slowly move eastward this morning...one over northwestern VT and the other across the Adirondacks. Expect this precipitation will wane a bit through the morning hours as it pushes east, but snow showers should increase this afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain, as the upper trough swings across the region.

 

I’m going categorize this morning’s extra snow as post-Winter Storm Benji, and split it out from that event.  There really doesn’t seem to be enough mentioned about this morning’s flare up of snowfall to split it out as its own event, so I’m going to roll it in as part of the trough moving through the area, which would include anything else that falls today in line with the BTV NWS forecast discussion.

 

The big, fluffy flakes from this flare up have continued to fall for a lot of the morning around here in Waterbury, so that’s been quite picturesque.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 27.5 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

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Snowing with an inch so far today.

I like where radar is going...I think the mountain might get lit up with a few inches by 12z tomorrow.  Good flow off Ontario.

Tons of terrain openings going on... up to 48 trails, the most in Vermont.  Nickels and dimes add up over time.

Snowing-in-Stowe-and-expanding-open-terr

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Anyone have ideas for my wife and I to spend 4-5 nights in either Stowe/ Waterbury area or White Mountains during the Christmas holiday week. She no longer skis but I snowboard. I know both areas have lots to do for non skiers. I don't need to be on the mountain just centrally located to hit up a few slopes. I figured this could be a good year for an early start to the season. Any suggestions for a particular property would be appreciated. 

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1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said:

Anyone have ideas for my wife and I to spend 4-5 nights in either Stowe/ Waterbury area or White Mountains during the Christmas holiday week. She no longer skis but I snowboard. I know both areas have lots to do for non skiers. I don't need to be on the mountain just centrally located to hit up a few slopes. I figured this could be a good year for an early start to the season. Any suggestions for a particular property would be appreciated. 

Not going to lie, but good luck on getting lodging for that week right now.  Stuff that's still available in Stowe will certainly cost a premium with low supply and high demand.  Waterbury actually might be a decent option though.  A little removed from the ski town lodging scene and right between Stowe and Sugarbush.  

I'd the Whites are the same with regards to busy during that week.

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47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not going to lie, but good luck on getting lodging for that week right now.  Stuff that's still available in Stowe will certainly cost a premium with low supply and high demand.  Waterbury actually might be a decent option though.  A little removed from the ski town lodging scene and right between Stowe and Sugarbush.  

I'd the Whites are the same with regards to busy during that week.

Thanks I know how the holidays can get. It's like July 4 weekend here. Since I'm a teacher, I have few options. Waterbury sounds like a good possibility. Thanks PF!

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46 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yowzer ALY..seems a bit aggressive. I could see some favored East Slope spots maybe getting up there, but widespread 8-12? I guess its not THAT far off some of the 12Z guidance output, but we'll see.

 StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Yeah that does seem a bit aggressive.  This doesn't have a widespread 8-12" feel.  More of a widespread 4-8" type vibe. 

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

We picked up an additional 0.3” of snow this morning from the weak trough of low pressure moving through the area, but by the time I had time to core it, it had sublimated so it will have to go down as a trace in terms of liquid.

 

Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 27.5 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

 

I think that event is done, and based on consultation with the BTV NWS forecast discussion, I’ll put anything that might come into the area tonight as part of the ongoing lake effect from Lake Ontario.

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20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing with an inch so far today.

I like where radar is going...I think the mountain might get lit up with a few inches by 12z tomorrow.  Good flow off Ontario.

Tons of terrain openings going on... up to 48 trails, the most in Vermont.  Nickels and dimes add up over time.

Snowing-in-Stowe-and-expanding-open-terr

Feet and feet of upslope this week

gefs_z500_conus_72.png

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I will be happy with a solid 5" of snow here :). I will be on the hunt for photos on Thu morning I am sure. We had around an inch here overnight.

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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

7" of new snow overnight at 3,000ft on Mansfield.

The skiing is insane.  Most open terrain in the East. 

December_11.jpg.a314645e70c1e3ec3c44850142440ed1.jpg

 

 

wow! you guys are killing it.  I'm counting on this week to set me up for xmas week in SB.  They need a major catch up event.  thinking with the westerly flow wednesday night should be good for them.  There always seems to be one early season upslope event that they get lucky in.

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28 minutes ago, Hitman said:

wow! you guys are killing it.  I'm counting on this week to set me up for xmas week in SB.  They need a major catch up event.  thinking with the westerly flow wednesday night should be good for them.  There always seems to be one early season upslope event that they get lucky in.

We are speechless at this point.  Every single event has seemed to over-perform. 

51" on the season up high.  Last night was ridiculous though.  I posted some photos from my 5am observations in the Banter thread.  Crazy heavy snow when I got in this morning. 

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Wintry appeal today as I drove home at lunch for a furniture delivery. Drove in and out of snow showers and the car thermo was between 22-25F. I-89 between exits 6-8 offers some great long range open views and it’s cool to see the snow crashing into hills in the distance. 

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Lake Champlain has been producing a little pixie dust especially just south of Winooski and along US 7 south of Burlington. It was snowing with hardly a cloud in the sky as well but looked like a cloud of fog from a distance.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We are speechless at this point.  Every single event has seemed to over-perform. 

51" on the season up high.  Last night was ridiculous though.  I posted some photos from my 5am observations in the Banter thread.  Crazy heavy snow when I got in this morning. 

Whiteface has 43 inches on the season, but it usual whiteface fashion I suspect most of it its blown off the mountain

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

Checking on the BTV NWS forecast discussion (below), I’m putting this morning’s accumulations as part of the moderating polar front that is dropping through the area since they’re not specifically speaking of it as a link up with the flow off Lake Ontario.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

646 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

As of 550 AM EST Monday...Minor update to increase light snow/snow shower activity across northern counties through mid-morning to account for current activity. Minor accumulations of a dusting to an inch still look reasonable through 8 am, though localized amounts to 2 inches will be possible here and there. Have a great day.

 

Prior discussion...

The forecast remains largely on track for today as a moderating polar front drops through the area this morning. Scattered light snows/snow showers will continue across mainly central and northern counties in association with the boundary this morning, though accumulations should be light and generally less than an inch.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

 

There’s another half inch down on the board, so with this event the total thus far has been about an inch.

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While the short term forecast in the BTV NWS forecast discussion hasn’t be updated yet this afternoon, I did notice that there were some map updates that were a bit more robust with respect to potential snowfall.  In the advisory maps there’s definitely been some expansion in the Winter Storm Warnings, and in the projected accumulations map, the areas with 8-12” have definitely expanded outward from the spine of the Greens.  There’s also some 12-18” shading sneaking in there along the crest now.

 

11DEC17C.jpg

 

11DEC17D.jpg

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27 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

While the short term forecast in the BTV NWS forecast discussion hasn’t be updated yet this afternoon, I did notice that there were some map updates that were a bit more robust with respect to potential snowfall.  In the advisory maps there’s definitely been some expansion in the Winter Storm Warnings, and in the projected accumulations map, the areas with 8-12” have definitely expanded outward from the spine of the Greens.  There’s also some 12-18” shading sneaking in there along the crest now.

 

11DEC17C.jpg

 

11DEC17D.jpg

odd to see the best snow on the leeward side of the foothills of the dacks, but makes sense with the track of the clipper and strong SE winds with WAA.  Often times the best snows are on the NW side of Lake Placid with LES setups and some synoptic storms (NW flow events) but with this storm the SE foothills should do well...Gore and Whiteface should do well.

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Nice to see the uptick on the map as we get closer to the storm :) Waiting on the discussion to update.

I'm sure it'll read 50 inches for the mountains, 1-2" for the Champlain Valley, turning to rain. ;)  Stowe has to keep up their 50:1 ratio over the Banana Belt.

 

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18 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

I'm sure it'll read 50 inches for the mountains, 1-2" for the Champlain Valley, turning to rain. ;)  Stowe has to keep up their 50:1 ratio over the Banana Belt.

 

Well they do mention the slight chance p-type might become a problem in the southern CPV so we shall see.

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