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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

When the fire first started someone reported that they saw a fireball hit the mountain.  There has been lots of reporting on this.  Basically impossible scenario.  Concord Monitor did a whole story and said no meteorite.   I spent time researching the possibility myself.  Couldn't find anytime a meteorite started a forest fire.  Would have to have been a very big fireball.  No one but this one guy saw anything and no sonic boom etc. etc.   By the way a 1 pound meteorite can be worth up to a million dollars.  Go get em boys!

Interesting stuff, thanks for the reply.  Hopefully there is a soaking rain in the near future.

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Interesting stuff, thanks for the reply.  Hopefully there is a soaking rain in the near future.

Next weeks system should put any hot spots out.  

I found the Concord Monitor story about the meteorite possibility.  Here it is...   http://www.concordmonitor.com/meteor-cause-fire-woodstock-nh-12912467

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Temps this time of the year can be crazy. Just got back from dinner in Hart's Location (notchland inn) in the middle of Crawford Notch. Car thermo showed low 50s through the notch, 52 at the Highland Center, which is about 200 ft higher than me, then a steady decline from there, down to 37 at my house. A 15 degree difference in just a few miles with pretty minimal elevation change

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We were 54 on top of the hill and it was 62 at 390 feet on the sounding, the Royal River Valley a couple hundred feet below the office was 39. Big inversion, but shallow. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

We were 54 on top of the hill and it was 62 at 390 feet on the sounding, the Royal River Valley a couple hundred feet below the office was 39. Big inversion, but shallow. 

When I lived in the back settlement in Ft. Kent, there were numerous mornings when our office next to the St. John would be 15F colder than home - 450' lower but only 2 miles distant.  If the cone burner at the cedar mill across in CA had a layer of smoke 100 yards or so above, I knew the inversion was working.

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Drove across NNE to Augusta to work the weekend at the Maine Snowmobile Show for the weeken.  Stick season for the most part but there were still pockets of good color here and there. 

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Went for the last cruise to Wolfeboro today. Got off to walk around and enjoy the lobster roll season finale.  What an amazing summery day.

The islands on the lake are still 90% green in case anyone was wondering.

In sadder news, Pumpkin the 22 year old farm cat at Picnic Rock Farm is no longer with us.

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Oh, just another late October night with the windows wide open...

Some good rain on the way?    Just looked at the Weatherbell accumulated rainfall over the next 10 days..

Euro  1-2" Region wide

GFS   3-4" for VT but 5-10" for much of NH and Maine  Jackpot is Northern Whites with 10-12"

GFS has a second wet system towards the end of the run.  Euro doesn't...

 

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8 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Another inversion morning,.looking at some local PWS in Manchester at 8am it's 36F at 860ft and 57F at 1320ft, and 54F at almost 4K at the top of Mt Equinox. .lol

 

 

I just posted about this in the General Banter thread but will move the disco here...

The inversions this month have led to the LOWER elevations having a COLDER month than the mid-slopes and higher elevations.

MVL at 700ft has had an average temperature this month of 53.8F.

Base of the ski resort has had an average temperature of 57.3F...almost 4 degrees warmer than the lower elevation site!

It is all due to the overnight lows...the valley has been crushing the mid slopes (1,500+) in overnight temperatures by as much as 25 degrees on two nights.  Most nights the difference is 10-15 degrees....like the this morning it was 35F in the valley, vs. 51F at 1,500ft.

During the day, the higher elevations are cooler but at normal adiabatic differences (ie. say 3-4 degrees between 1,500ft and 700ft as mixing hasn't been good enough for steeper rates)...but then at night the difference in the valley is incredible and easily crushes the daytime differences.

 

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To continue on that a bit...

There have been only 4 days this month at 1,500ft with minimum temperatures of 39F or lower.  At 700ft there have been 13 days with minimum temps 39F or lower. 

Today keeps the ball rolling with the lower elevations being colder than the higher elevations in the means.

71F at 1,500ft right now vs. 75 at 700ft... but this morning showed 53F at 1500ft while it was 35F at 700ft. 

Daily average temp today:

62F at 1,500ft

55F at 700ft

I wonder how often this happens...where monthly average temperatures are significantly lower (like 4-5F lower) in the lower elevations vs. those with significantly more elevation.  It would be like if BDL averaged a month 4F lower than ORH.

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Temps this time of the year can be crazy. Just got back from dinner in Hart's Location (notchland inn) in the middle of Crawford Notch. Car thermo showed low 50s through the notch, 52 at the Highland Center, which is about 200 ft higher than me, then a steady decline from there, down to 37 at my house. A 15 degree difference in just a few miles with pretty minimal elevation change

We like going to cabin fever for the pizza. How is Notchland?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

We like going to cabin fever for the pizza. How is Notchland?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

Very different experience. Notchland is a 5 course prix fixe (I think it's $50 or so) dinner with a single seating at 7pm. The ambiance is magical (we try to sit right in front of the fireplace whenever possible in the winter). The food is always very good and the atmosphere really rounds it up. Ed and Les, the owners, have become good friends of ours. Awesome guys. 

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Sooo warm falls mean great winters right?

 

Nicer than just about all June in BTV so far this month. 

Looking forward to December in February and February in April and April in June. 

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Top of the Kanc, looking west Sunday afternoon.  The picture is a bit dark as the sun was filtered through high clouds.  The road was pretty busy with a ton of motorcyclists.  I overheard one guy asking where the railroad was that you can see on the the side of the mountain.  I told him he was in the wrong notch.7403FB49-20C1-4132-8AAA-A0603C9A7731.jpeg

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21 hours ago, Hitman said:

 

That’s a great write-up as usual from the BTV folks.  They certainly allude to the resulting orographic snow in the text:

 

“By the morning of the 15th, the system had occluded as it moved onshore into Maine tracking slight to the northwest. With the low tracking into Maine the flow over much of the North Country had turned northwest which is optimal for the development of orographic snow over both the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains.”

 

…but I’d say the local VT/NNY accumulations map (posted below) from the summary really underplays the substantial snow totals that the resorts and towns along the spine of the Greens ultimately received from the storm.  The 22.3” they have for my site on the map is spot on with the storm total my records show as of my 6:00 A.M. report on March 15th, but it unfortunately doesn’t capture the fact that it then continued to snow at an inch an hour… for the next eighteen hours.  It’s one thing when the mountain towns tack on a few extra inches to the end of an event, or if the substantial extra accumulations are only in the higher elevations where there’s no population, but nearly doubling the valley totals from the first part of the storm seems like it would be pretty impactful.  Perhaps they were being really rigid in trying to present only the “synoptic” portion of the event, but it sure did have quite the backside snows in some areas.  I haven’t looked back at the snowfall numbers to see how localized the snowfall on the back end of the storm was, but maybe PF and others will have some thoughts.

 

24OCT17A.jpg

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2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

That’s a great write-up as usual from the BTV folks.  They certain allude to the resulting orographic snow in the text:

 

“By the morning of the 15th, the system had occluded as it moved onshore into Maine tracking slight to the northwest. With the low tracking into Maine the flow over much of the North Country had turned northwest which is optimal for the development of orographic snow over both the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains.”

 

…but I’d say the local VT/NNY accumulations map (posted below) from the summary really underplays the substantial snow totals that the resorts and towns along the spine of the Greens ultimately received from the storm.  The 22.3” they have for my site on the map is spot on with the storm total my records show as of my 6:00 A.M. report on March 15th, but it unfortunately doesn’t capture the fact that it then continued to snow at an inch an hour… for the next eighteen hours.  It’s one thing when the mountain towns tack on a few extra inches to the end of an event, or if the substantial extra accumulations are only in the higher elevations where there’s no population, but nearly doubling the valley totals from the first part of the storm seems like it would be pretty impactful.  Perhaps they were being really rigid in trying to present only the “synoptic” portion of the event, but it sure did have quite the backside snows in some areas.  I haven’t looked back at the snowfall numbers to see how localized the snowfall on the back end of the storm was, but maybe PF and others will have some thoughts.

 

24OCT17A.jpg

Some of those numbers look a bit low around BTV which recorded 30".  That 17.2 just to the north must have been an ob that was not updated later at the end of the storm. Either way it was my first 30 inch event and the most snow I have seen in a single storm :). I will never forget the 5 inch per hour peak.  

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On ‎10‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 5:49 AM, adk said:

The 10/25-10/30 time period is looking interesting. Some blocking appears likely and an intrusion of seasonal cold air comes with it. Maybe upper trough hooks up with impulses and gives us a classic Halloween storm with upper elevation snows? Seems possible.....

 

 

Well, now that we’re getting into this timeframe we can start to look into the potential a bit more.  I was watching TWC this morning and saw the first maps showing the possibility for snow in the Northeast, so it’s time to start checking into the models.  Based on what I’m seeing it looks like after the weekend system there’s the potential for some frozen starting in the Monday (Oct 30) timeframe and heading through the week.  The BTV NWS isn’t talking about precipitation type in their forecast discussion yet, but they paint the picture of the overall setup:

 

“Behind this system, confidence is increasing that a much larger longwave northern stream trough will slowly carve itself out across the northern tier of states east of the Rockies by the middle of next week. Pieces of energy diving into the base of this feature combined with mean westerly flow should allow at least some scattered shower activity to continue across the mountains and especially to the lee of the Great Lakes where anomalously warm water temperatures should foster instability-driven activity.”

 

We’ll have to see what happens, but the mountains certainly show some potential for frozen as we head into next week.  From the discussion it sounds like pretty standard fare overall, but it will probably be a bit more notable because of the change it represents relative to the pattern we’ve been in as of late.

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1.60" rain.  Brian sure scored just to my south!  Congrads of .75" in 15 minutes.  That would have done a number on my dirt road.

Foliage is getting brighter and brighter.  I thought we were at peak 10 days ago.  Obviously not.  The bright sugar maples and swamp maples seem to peak and then the general forest peaks way after in some years.  Oaks are now all changing.

Calm winds this AM so took the drone up really high.  Great foliage and interesting to see the blue skies over VT and the heavier frontal clouds to the east.  Love this toy!

 

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

1.60" rain.  Brian sure scored just to my south!  Congrads of .75" in 15 minutes.  That would have done a number on my dirt road.

Foliage is getting brighter and brighter.  I thought we were at peak 10 days ago.  Obviously not.  The bright sugar maples and swamp maples seem to peak and then the general forest peaks way after in some years.  Oaks are now all changing.

Calm winds this AM so took the drone up really high.  Great foliage and interesting to see the blue skies over VT and the heavier frontal clouds to the east.  Love this toy!

 

I love cloud punches with the drone :)

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Only 0.09" yesterday in scattered showers, "real" rain started about midnight bringing another 0.84" by 7 AM, and dumped 1.17" more at 2:30.  Ugly looking (probable) hydroplaning wreck on I-95 a dozen miles south of BGR.  Dawn temps in low 60s, avg low for the date low 30s.

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7 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

00z GFS ups the ante..like 6-10" statewide...lol.

it'll probably turn out to be a couple of decimal places to the left. ;)

That's a crazy model result.  Thought for a second I was looking at snow depth, considering those are colors not frequently seen on rain maps.

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I got a nice mention in the BTV AFD, lol.

Too bad I'm out of town at the Toronto Ski Show.

Props to our local office...where else would you get this detail in a NWS forecast in New England for the high elevations?  

_________

For the snow lovers...have gone ahead and added some additional detail into the grids...as thinking when best lift/moisture arrives this aftn...column cools just enough to support a heavy wet snow...mainly above 3500 feet by this evening. RAP 850mb temps drop below 0C by 22z for the Green Mtns...supporting a change over to wet snow by sunset...for the summits. 

The combination of favorable upslope 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots and strong dynamics will help to support a period of moderate wet snow near the summits of the Green Mountains from Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington overnight. 

Current thinking a dusting to 2 inches between 2700 and 3500 feet with 2 to 5 inches above 3500 feet by Friday Morning. Looking forward to seeing some pictures from the picnic tables on Mansfield from our Stowe spotter. Meanwhile...Whiteface already at 0C...but best moisture will be east of this region...so only a light accumulation for the high peaks...dusting to couple inches above 3500 feet.

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Snowing now at the picnic tables.

32F at 3600ft on Mansfield and 1.21" so far today.

Killington cams have snow at summit too.

Tight bright banding circle with lowering snow levels.

IMG_7151.GIF.80faf397bcb104d71510102d20e46c87.GIF

 

 
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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I got a nice mention in the BTV AFD, lol.

Too bad I'm out of town at the Toronto Ski Show.

Props to our local office...where else would you get this detail in a NWS forecast in New England for the high elevations?  

_________

For the snow lovers...have gone ahead and added some additional detail into the grids...as thinking when best lift/moisture arrives this aftn...column cools just enough to support a heavy wet snow...mainly above 3500 feet by this evening. RAP 850mb temps drop below 0C by 22z for the Green Mtns...supporting a change over to wet snow by sunset...for the summits. 

The combination of favorable upslope 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots and strong dynamics will help to support a period of moderate wet snow near the summits of the Green Mountains from Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington overnight. 

Current thinking a dusting to 2 inches between 2700 and 3500 feet with 2 to 5 inches above 3500 feet by Friday Morning. Looking forward to seeing some pictures from the picnic tables on Mansfield from our Stowe spotter. Meanwhile...Whiteface already at 0C...but best moisture will be east of this region...so only a light accumulation for the high peaks...dusting to couple inches above 3500 feet.

 

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing now at the picnic tables.

32F at 3600ft on Mansfield and 1.21" so far today.

Killington cams have snow at summit too.

Tight bright banding circle with lowering snow levels.

IMG_7151.GIF.80faf397bcb104d71510102d20e46c87.GIF

 

Nice PF, it’s great to see the snow talk appearing – we’re about to move into November, so it almost feels overdue, but Octobers can definitely be capricious when it comes to snowfall.  Man was it raw out there yesterday with all the moisture and temperatures topping out well down in the 40s F.  I didn’t know if we’d be seeing any snow out of it, but sure enough, the peaks did their thing.  So I guess this is round three for the season after the little shot at the end of September, and the mid-October snow.  The peaks are still in the clouds right now, but I’ll keep an eye out for them to appear and see what the views show.

 

As noted earlier in the thread, it looks like there’s more potential for next week.  The BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests that we could get some lake moisture involved, and from what I can see on the models, the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe would seem to have the flow in our direction.

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 515 AM EDT Friday...From Monday night through Thursday the weather will remain active with a couple chances for some showers and the temperatures will respond back to near seasonable numbers for early November, highs in the lower 50s and lows in the lower to mid 30s. Westerly flow will set up across the region and several vorts pass thru quick upper level flow bringing some scattered showers to the North Country. Will start to see some white in the higher elevations with temperature profiles finally cold enough to support snow in the higher elevations. This flow will also be favorable for some lake effect moisture off of Lake Ontario.

 

 

Mansfield point forecast:

 

Monday

Occasional rain showers before 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. High near 49. Very windy, with a west wind 41 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Very windy, with a west wind 40 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph.

Tuesday

A chance of rain and snow showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Windy, with a west wind 33 to 38 mph decreasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight.

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