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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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Hey, guys, from the SE forum. I'm headed up to North Conway, NH, for the week before Christmas to celebrate my anniversary with my wife. What are my odds of seeing much snow this year? We were hoping to be able to cross country ski, snowshoe, and/or snowmobile. Even if the valley doesn't have snow, would the Presidential Range? Thanks for any input you can provide. Happy Thanksgiving!

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13 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Hey, guys, from the SE forum. I'm headed up to North Conway, NH, for the week before Christmas to celebrate my anniversary with my wife. What are my odds of seeing much snow this year? We were hoping to be able to cross country ski, snowshoe, and/or snowmobile. Even if the valley doesn't have snow, would the Presidential Range? Thanks for any input you can provide. Happy Thanksgiving!

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Congrats on the anniversary! See Alex's photos from Bretton Woods today in the banter thread. Snowy up there already. I'd be shocked if there isn't substantially more by the time you get up there. One of the better snow spots in NE.

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6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Congrats on the anniversary! See Alex's photos from Bretton Woods today in the banter thread. Snowy up there already. I'd be shocked if there isn't substantially more by the time you get up there. One of the better snow spots in NE.

Up in the Northern White Mountains, odds are very  high of snow on the ground by the week before Christmas.  Skiing is a definite as areas are already making lots of snow and will continue as we move deeper into winter so you're all set even without lots of natural snow cover.  You don't need deep snow for cross-country skiing or snowshoeing.  There does have to be about 10" of natural snow for the snowmobile trails to open up which is a bit harder earlier in the season.   Things don't look good for any storms over the next week or so but we still have most of December to start building up the pack.  I found the map below which shows the chance of at least 1" of snow by Christmas.  As you can see odds are very high.

Enjoy your trip its a beautiful part of the country!

 

Untitled.jpg

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16 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Hey, guys, from the SE forum. I'm headed up to North Conway, NH, for the week before Christmas to celebrate my anniversary with my wife. What are my odds of seeing much snow this year? We were hoping to be able to cross country ski, snowshoe, and/or snowmobile. Even if the valley doesn't have snow, would the Presidential Range? Thanks for any input you can provide. Happy Thanksgiving!

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

Hey! Sorry I've been quiet... getting ready for our first weekend with our soon-to-be adopted kids! Wild. 

As others have said, it would be highly unusual (perhaps unprecedented?) not to have snow that time of the year. The great thing about the White Mountains is that you have very distinct patterns. In upslope patterns, you can head up the notch and come join us at Bretton Woods, which you should stop by anyways - beautiful area (of course, I'm biased - but that's why I chose to live here!) and the Mt Washington Hotel is worth a visit (and daily breakfast buffet till 11 am is AMAZING). In patterns with cutters, the Mt Washington Valley (Bartlett/Jackson/Conway) tends to do EXTREMELY well - the cold air damming in that area can be amazing. So, you're pretty much guaranteed to have decent snow cover somewhere within a short drive. 

Speaking of Bretton Woods, in my many years skiing here, I have to say - they do tend to have the best conditions of just about anywhere I've skied, but it's not for everyone. The terrain is fairly gentle. With good snow, you can ski the glades and that's FANTASTIC - a friend of mine is an advanced skier who generally only skies Stowe and Sugarbush, but last year came over and did the glades and said he had one of the most fun ski days in memory. The thing here is that the snow really tends to be better, for a number of reasons:

1. Terrain as I said is gentle, which helps avoid too much ice. Keep that in mind though... if you're looking for steeps, this is not the place. Go to Wildcat (which you should do anyways - AWESOME mountain with breathtaking scenery, and a very short drive from Jackson). 

2. Frequent upslope snow gives us very constant refreshers. Very rarely is a rainstorm not followed by some upslope (at least that's my observation in the few years I've been here)

3. No wind! Last year I had a season pass to both Bretton Woods and Cannon, and even after a big dump, conditions at Cannon can be iffy because of the wind. Bretton Woods can have a powder day with just 2"  - simply because the lack of wind means the snow doesn't go anywhere. 

4. Great grooming. The team here knows what they're doing, unlike at Cannon. Last year I was at Cannon on a VERY warm day. The snow was incredibly slushy, and we were expecting a refreeze overnight as a cold came through. So what do they do? They groom the slush at 4pm, so that the next morning was an ice sheet. At Bretton Woods, they waited to groom till the morning, and the conditions the next day were GREAT. 

I hope this helps! Feel free to PM me if you need specific info! And while in Jackson, don't forget to stroll around Nestlenook Farms one night. The lights on the tree, piped Xmas music, sleighs and ice skaters on the large pond make it really unique. Amazing place. 

 

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On ‎11‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 8:32 PM, alex said:

Given how boring the forecast is, a quick comparison between last year and this year. We had an awesomely white Thanksgiving last year; this is is white but not nearly AS white. :) Interestingly, though, we had a later start but smaller and more frequent events so far this year. 

2017     2016  
10-Nov 2   20-Oct 3
11-Nov 0.25   25-Oct 0.25
13-Nov 0.5   31-Oct 0.25
15-Nov 0.001   11-Nov 0.25
16-Nov 0.5   21-Nov 3
17-Nov 1   22-Nov 3
19-Nov 0.2      
20-Nov 2      
22-Nov 0.8      

 

This was actually an interesting season for Thanksgiving snow at our location.  Looking back at my weather records for turkey day, we’ve always either had at least 2 inches on the ground, or nothing.  This was the first time that we’ve had only partial snow cover, which goes down as “T”. 

 

Anyway, updating my numbers in terms of climatology, they currently put odds of snow here on Thanksgiving just shy of 60%, with mean depth of 2.9”, and median depth of 2.0”.  Last Thanksgiving was definitely whiter here as well, although these earlier Thanksgivings would in theory be the tougher ones to have snow cover down.  You can see it in the daily snowfall averages here for November.  Splitting the month into thirds:

 

first third:  0.04” snow/day

middle third:  0.23” snow/day

final third:  0.66” snow/day

 

The overall weather pattern will of course trump any monthly snowfall trend, but all things being equal, the more of that last third of the month that you can get into before Thanksgiving, the better the odds of having some snow down.  Our latest three Thanksgivings here (‘08-‘09, ’13-‘14, & ’14-‘15) do all have snow cover, with an average depth of more than half a foot.

 

Checking my snow records, there are a few obvious things of note that I’ve observed thus far, even though the month isn’t complete:

 

1) Days with snow cover:  Looking at my CoCoRaHS data, I can see that we’ve recorded a trace or more of snow on the ground here continuously since the 10th of November.  It can’t actually represent the start of the winter snowpack here because there was a break (there was a trace reported in the morning, then the snow fully melted out that day, but another storm came in so we were back to coverage by the report the next morning).  In any event, that’s about as early for a stretch like that as I’ve ever seen here, so it was certainly noteworthy.

 

2) In terms of the number/frequency of November events that you mentioned, this year has actually been noteworthy in that department.  This year we had six accumulating storms in the first 2/3 of the month, and we’ve never done that before.

 

3) On November 20th, this season was leading all seasons in my records for snowfall (9.5”) as of that date, being 0.7” ahead of ’14-‘15.  It immediately fell behind ’16-‘17 the next day, but even having the lead at any point says something about this season because there are some heavy hitters in there (indeed it’s already fallen to 5th place).

 

Anyway, it certainly hasn’t been an outrageously snowy November thus far by any means, but it’s been good and had its moments.  There’s still about a week to go though, and the models do show some snow chances, so we’ll see what transpires going forward.

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On ‎11‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 8:32 PM, alex said:

Given how boring the forecast is, a quick comparison between last year and this year. We had an awesomely white Thanksgiving last year; this is is white but not nearly AS white.

 

19 hours ago, MarkO said:

Not quite white up here this year although there are patches of snow. Last year I think we had about 2" on the ground from the turkey day event.

 

Seeing the comments you guys made, and catching a few glimpses of my trip reports from the period when I was researching Thanksgiving numbers for my previous post, you guys aren’t kidding – the Thanksgiving period last year really was quite snowy.  It looks like we were being affected by Winter Storm Argos, which dumped almost a foot of snow here at the house, and I’m seeing a storm total of more than two feet at Bolton Valley.  We had four back-to-back ski outings during that stretch, on Nov 20th, Nov 21st, Nov 22nd, and Nov 23rd, so indeed the conditions would have been great to warrant that.  I grabbed a few images from my reports to provide some visuals of the period:

 

20NOV16E.jpg

 

22NOV16E.jpg

 

22NOV16B.jpg

 

23NOV16A.jpg

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4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

Seeing the comments you guys made, and catching a few glimpses of my trip reports from the period when I was researching Thanksgiving numbers for my previous post, you guys aren’t kidding – the Thanksgiving period last year really was quite snowy.  It looks like we were being affected by Winter Storm Argos, which dumped almost a foot of snow here at the house, and I’m seeing a storm total of more than two feet at Bolton Valley.  We had four back-to-back ski outings during that stretch, on Nov 20th, Nov 21st, Nov 22nd, and Nov 23rd, so indeed the conditions would have been great to warrant that.  I grabbed a few images from my reports to provide some visuals of the period:

 

 

22NOV16E.jpg

 

 

 

Now that image is how Thanksgiving should always look, lol.  Last year early season was amazing.  Even straight into mid-December.  All the Front Four at Stowe were open by December 10th I think...pretty impressive and for me, that type of early snow that lays down an early base sets the stage for the rest of the winter.  Because usually in the mountains, once you get those types of snow depths they aren't melting out until April/May.

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Looking back on last winter... yeah jeez the early season.  86 of 116 trails open on December 10th.

December 1-18 at 3,000ft yielded 67" of snowfall.  No wonder so much stuff was open so early.

Untitled.jpg.220c3801ff4ef687b953eb49de896f76.jpg

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looking back on last winter... yeah jeez the early season.  86 of 116 trails open on December 10th.

December 1-18 at 3,000ft yielded 67" of snowfall.  No wonder so much stuff was open so early.

Untitled.jpg.220c3801ff4ef687b953eb49de896f76.jpg

 

It’s interesting to look at the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plots for this season and last season – they don’t look all that different for this part of November despite that great skiing that we had at Thanksgiving last year.  Last season the snowpack was a smidge higher at this point, but you can see that it was about to stagnate until roughly the start that December 1st period you show in your data.

 

24NOV17A.jpg

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28 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

It’s interesting to look at the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plots for this season and last season – they don’t look all that different for this part of November despite that great skiing that we had at Thanksgiving last year.  Last season the snowpack was a smidge higher at this point, but you can see that it was about to stagnate until roughly the start that December 1st period you show in your data.

 

24NOV17A.jpg

Yeah this November has been solid, IMO.  It would be hard to describe a -3 to -4 temperature departure at MVL/MPV/1V4 as anything else.

As usual this time of year its a lot of up and down but it has averaged quite cold, which this time of year when normals are still relatively high means mountain snowpack sticks around.  This is the time of year I want -4 departures in the means.  In January, it's usually a bit too much to handle.  But in November it basically makes it seem like it's almost a month ahead of time with regards to average temperatures.

The mountain has been uniformly white pretty much since the 10th of November...going on like 2 weeks now of "white" at the mountain.  It really has an impact on the overall "mood" and "feel" of the early season.

Here's today's photo from Spruce looking at Mansfield.  It's winter.  But yet only November 24.  And there's some substance to that snow, too.

The-Meadows-Quad-is-now-open.jpg

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah this November has been solid, IMO.  It would be hard to describe a -3 to -4 temperature departure at MVL/MPV/1V4 as anything else.

As usual this time of year its a lot of up and down but it has averaged quite cold, which this time of year when normals are still relatively high means mountain snowpack sticks around.  This is the time of year I want -4 departures in the means.  In January, it's usually a bit too much to handle.  But in November it basically makes it seem like it's almost a month ahead of time with regards to average temperatures.

The mountain has been uniformly white pretty much since the 10th of November...going on like 2 weeks now of "white" at the mountain.  It really has an impact on the overall "mood" and "feel" of the early season.

Here's today's photo from Spruce looking at Mansfield.  It's winter.  But yet only November 24.  And there's some substance to that snow, too.

The-Meadows-Quad-is-now-open.jpg

Any bumps on National yet?

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is the time of year I want -4 departures in the means.  In January, it's usually a bit too much to handle.  But in November it basically makes it seem like it's almost a month ahead of time with regards to average temperatures.

 

Yeah, negative departures in November are awesome, just like in March/April.  I hate to think about negative departures in January.  It’s hard to imagine January that way with us still staying right in the storm track – if we’ve got serious negative departures at that time of the year, we’re probably dealing with a lot of arctic outbreaks and the storm track too far south.  Anyway, even if that’s not the case, we’re still going to be freezing our butts off.  It does feel like banking an extra month of winter when November delivers, and getting that boost to potential snowpack building just can’t be replaced.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Looking back on last winter... yeah jeez the early season.  86 of 116 trails open on December 10th.

December 1-18 at 3,000ft yielded 67" of snowfall.  No wonder so much stuff was open so early.

Untitled.jpg.220c3801ff4ef687b953eb49de896f76.jpg

I remember last year in December here it just kept snowing day after day, and the resort decided to just drop the ropes on a bunch of trails without ever grooming them. Good times. 

 

 

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Great Nov 25th day out there!

Hey, the question for OceanSt..    I see that they are getting ready to move GOES 16 into the new east position starting Nov 30th.  The website is confusing to me as some instruments will continue to work and some will be shut down.  Will we still get images as it moves?  Hope we don't have to wait till Dec 30th.  I know your the go to guy on this!

 

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On ‎11‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 5:45 PM, powderfreak said:

Frequency of snow is what we do best in upslope country.  

I'm really glad you found this forum because it's awesome to have the obs from your area. We always knew there was upslope there but it's nice to add people to the small group that sees these snows and can compare/discuss and have a very similar climate.  

You've got 1500ft of elevation too which is huge for where you live.  That's the only way anyone will give JSpin a run for his money...he's usually got everyone beat in terms of precipitation amounts but your elevation 1000ft higher give you a big advantage in events like yesterday.  I'm just the horse that trots along in 3rd place, as I'm a couple miles too far east to really compete...won't miss out but won't jackpot type location.  Of course I've always got "the office" which mixes elevation with max orographic lift to get my rocks off when home isn't getting it done.

 

It is really nice having observations from White Mountain upslope country to add to what we have here in the Greens.  Although I’m still amazed that more of the resorts around here don’t have the sort of camera setup that Sugarbush has in place, or dedicated snow reporters with the snow plots and transparency that Stowe has, we’re still pretty lucky overall around here.  We’ve got a number of valley observers, and a decent density of resorts that are reporting on snow during the season.  With the amount of snow that the Northern Greens/Central Greens etc. get, it’s great to have the observations we do, but it still feels like the Whites are very underrepresented in that department for whatever reason.

 

I agree with what PF mentioned before, in that Alex’s location and my location probably get roughly similar overall snowfall.  So in terms of which location gets more snow in any given season, it would probably just depend on the tenor of the season.  If it’s a season where storms tend to bit hitting areas off to our east more, or there are a lot of elevation snows, that would probably give Alex’s location the edge, but in a season with a lot of Green Mountain upslope, the edge might be in this area.  That extra 1,000’ of elevation that Alex’s location has can be really important though – especially to cash in at the fringes of the season when temperatures are a bit warmer.  I have to think that at 1,500’ elevation here along the spine, snowfall averages would be 175” or so.

 

PF, what’s the average snowfall you record at the Stowe base area?  That’s a bit east of the spine, but a good comparison for elevation since it’s around 1,500’.

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3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Great Nov 25th day out there!

Hey, the question for OceanSt..    I see that they are getting ready to move GOES 16 into the new east position starting Nov 30th.  The website is confusing to me as some instruments will continue to work and some will be shut down.  Will we still get images as it moves?  Hope we don't have to wait till Dec 30th.  I know your the go to guy on this!

We will not get the traditional suite of satellite images. The big one is the ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager: http://www.goes-r.gov/education/ABI-bands-quick-info.html) which handles visible, IR, WV, etc. 

My assumption is that it will be in place and we'll be getting data before 12/20, but there will be a "testing" or check-out phase where they make sure nothing was damaged prior to becoming GOES-East. 

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26 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

It is really nice having observations from White Mountain upslope country to add to what we have here in the Greens.  Although I’m still amazed that more of the resorts around here don’t have the sort of camera setup that Sugarbush has in place, or dedicated snow reporters with the snow plots and transparency that Stowe has, we’re still pretty lucky overall around here.  We’ve got a number of valley observers, and a decent density of resorts that are reporting on snow during the season.  With the amount of snow that the Northern Greens/Central Greens etc. get, it’s great to have the observations we do, but it still feels like the Whites are very underrepresented in that department for whatever reason.

 

I agree with what PF mentioned before, in that Alex’s location and my location probably get roughly similar overall snowfall.  So in terms of which location gets more snow in any given season, it would probably just depend on the tenor of the season.  If it’s a season where storms tend to bit hitting areas off to our east more, or there are a lot of elevation snows, that would probably give Alex’s location the edge, but in a season with a lot of Green Mountain upslope, the edge might be in this area.  That extra 1,000’ of elevation that Alex’s location has can be really important though – especially to cash in at the fringes of the season when temperatures are a bit warmer.  I have to think that at 1,500’ elevation here along the spine, snowfall averages would be 175” or so.

 

PF, what’s the average snowfall you record at the Stowe base area?  That’s a bit east of the spine, but a good comparison for elevation since it’s around 1,500’.

I want a fleet of SNOTELs will cameras dropped all over New England. Until then, I rely on the weenies.

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Speaking of, this secondary shortwave looks like it's packing a little heat with it. Nice twist to the precip coming off Lake Ontario. MWN slipped below freezing, so Mansfield has to be close if not there too. Could be a little lake enhanced upslope on the way.

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

We will not get the traditional suite of satellite images. The big one is the ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager: http://www.goes-r.gov/education/ABI-bands-quick-info.html) which handles visible, IR, WV, etc. 

My assumption is that it will be in place and we'll be getting data before 12/20, but there will be a "testing" or check-out phase where they make sure nothing was damaged prior to becoming GOES-East. 

1)Thanks Ocean!   

2) Congrats on the little one inbound...

3)  Uh oh...  Could we break this boring dry spell with some kind of cut off slow moving system?  Noticed the 7" bullseyes on the 18Z GFS over Alex and interior Maine.  All rain too, no snow.  At least something to start watching to see how this all plays out... Would be nice if this was white and not warm to help NNE start building up snowpack for the holidays...

 

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We'll have to keep our eyes out for some upslope action over the next 48 hours.

It looks disjointed and comes from two different waves, but we might nickel and dime a few inches for the ski resorts tomorrow morning through Monday.

18z RGEM looks similar to the 12z EURO in total precip.  GFS is a bit less

ZtETc8f.png

 

As usual the 3km NAM/WRF is on crack and juiced up to like 1.4" QPF... which it does every time it seems. 

2DaKQvJ.png

 

The NCEP NAM looks much more reasonable.

BUsa2Vm.png

 

Something to watch over the next 48 hours though... in a relatively boring pattern we'll take some flakes and hopefully get the ground back to white in the mountain valleys after today's torch finished it all off.

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52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We'll have to keep our eyes out for some upslope action over the next 48 hours.

It looks disjointed and comes from two different waves, but we might nickel and dime a few inches for the ski resorts tomorrow morning through Monday.

Something to watch over the next 48 hours though... in a relatively boring pattern we'll take some flakes and hopefully get the ground back to white in the mountain valleys after today's torch finished it all off.

 

Yeah, it looks like today’s precipitation and temperatures melted the remaining snow here at our place, at least as far as I can tell.

 

Thanks for the maps – it should be fun to see how this goes over the next couple of days.

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Thoughts from the BTV NWS forecast discussion regarding the upcoming snow chances:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Overcast conditions prevail across the North Country this afternoon in SW flow regime. Briefly reached 52F at BTV and 57F at RUT during the late morning hrs, but pre-frontal trough and associated -SHRA has generally cooled readings into the 40s, and locally into the upper 30s in the nrn Adirondacks. Lingering showers across central/nrn VT will result in <0.10" additional rainfall thru mid-late aftn. Otherwise, just looking at cloudy conditions with SW winds generally 5-10 mph thru early this evening.

 

Trailing cold front across the Ottawa Valley at 19Z will bring a northwesterly wind shift as it moves across northern NY and VT between 00-06Z late this evening. Anticipate FROPA at BTV around 03Z. Cooling low-level thermodynamic profiles will begin to support snow around 01Z in the nrn Adirondacks and by 04Z or so in the northern Green Mountains. So, will have some upslope/orographic snow showers during the overnight hrs with up to 1-2" across the higher summits, and a general coating to 1" possible across the nrn Adirondacks region and central/nrn VT in general by 12Z Sunday. Generally cloudy in valley locations with a brief flurry or two. Daybreak lows will range from the low-mid 20s across the nrn Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley, to the uppr 20s to lower 30s across central/nrn VT where low-level CAA arrives a bit later. Highest PoPs (70-80%) confined to the higher summit locations, with just 20-30% in the lower valleys.

 

Will see NW winds 10-15 mph with some gusts to 25 mph with steep lapse rates (and downsloping in the CT River Valley) thru Sunday morning, before sfc ridge axis briefly shifts into the region with lighter winds expected late in the day. Any lingering snow showers should end across the mtns during the morning hrs before upslope winds diminish. Not looking for much sunshine with trapped moisture and low- level inversion -- maybe a few breaks in the afternoon before clouds advance ahead of next shortwave trough from the nrn Great Lakes. Highs on Sunday mainly 28-35F, warmest at BTV.

 

700mb shortwave trough in NW flow and weak sfc reflection move in for Sunday night from the northern Great Lakes region. Limited moisture with PW values 0.2-0.3" but sufficient synoptic ascent and upslope enhancement for some light snow or snow shower activity, especially 03-09Z. Went with high PoPs (70-90%) for a low QPF event...liquid equiv. 0.05-0.15", highest in the mtns. Everyone should see at least a light period of snow, with 1-3" in the mtns, and a dusting to an inch possible in valley locations by 12Z Monday. Sunday night lows generally 22-28F.

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Snowing hard out this morning.

Really nothing below 1000ft but then bam pasted white. 

Only 1" at 5:30am but we may have added another half inch or an inch in this burst.  Pasty snow sticking to every little twig.

IMG_7452.JPG.fdfc2815f6b1545a45870285e827056b.JPG

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Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.13” L.E.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 33.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

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