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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mentioned the shortwave in the obs/banter thread....but this is a classic case of synoptics being enhanced by the mesoscale terrain factors. There's still plenty of moisture back into upstate NY so we will prob see a mini-bust for the favored areas.

 

Yeah Will, I saw your post about the shortwave in the other thread.  The BTV NWS actually had it mentioned in their discussion, but they’re now starting to update the discussion and are pointing out that the setup has been more potent than guidance suggested:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 1247 PM EST Monday...well, still trying to play some catchup with the combo Lakes Superior/Huron snow band that has moved across northern NY and now into northern VT. The snowfall intensity and coverage has ended up being more than even the hi-res models indicated, at least here locally in the Champlain Valley and along the western slopes. Given that it`s snow, radar doesn`t detect it very well, so it wasn`t until it started snowing here in the Champlain Valley that we could "see" it on radar. Appears that there was some blocked flow that developed as well. That said, it appears that using the GOES-16 IR channel has been working well by using the -25C cloud top temperatures to show where the best snows are occurring. Over the last hour, the overall trend has been for cloud tops to start to warm. Although the hi-res models were doing fairly well earlier this morning, they have totally missed the snow here in the Champlain Valley and across the Green Mountains. Have tried to enhance coverage of the snow above what the models give, but even then, I`m still too low.

 

Will probably continue to forecast chase the snow band over the next few hours. However, by this evening, wind flow will turn more southwest and be disruptive to the bands that are out there. So as we go on toward midnight, we will only be left with clouds and a few flurries, especially across northern NY.

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is the surprise little events like this that cause the most wrecks around here as 89 wasn't treated yet.

Yea, your right about that too.  Definitely coming down on 89..time sensitive.

1ea72da6c44e41f53d7e0261d4e7b51f.jpg

 

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14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is the surprise little events like this that cause the most wrecks around here as 89 wasn't treated yet.

This really was a surprise too...wasn't on even the high res models as of 0z this AM and even radar wasn't picking it up....That's pure trouble for 89

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Flurries have begun under milky virga skies. Vis unlimited looking toward Brian's but lower NW. Wind is roaring thru trees Nice J Spin. 3" down.

Yeah...we sun.

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I just got a text alerting me of a special weather statement:

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

National Weather Service BURLINGTON VT

148 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

 

VTZ001-002-005-006-008-009-016>018-202100-

Grand Isle-Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Washington-Western Addison-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Including the cities of Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, and Ripton

148 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

 

...Special Weather Statement...

Light snow is falling and starting to accumulate in the Champlain Valley. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling. Reports indicate numerous accidents and slow travel conditions.

 

20NOV17B.jpg

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1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

JSpin might eek out a 6 spot out of this.

Someone is getting at least 4 I would say. I am back in the Taft's corners area and it is picking up again. 

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They are a surprise, but it's these little weak WAA regimes enhanced by a s/w and lift that can turn 0.15" into 4-5" of fluff. I don't forecast for VT, but it did look interesting even yesterday. At least to me.

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18 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Jspin already has 4 based on his cam

 

Yeah, I was going to comment that there was 4” down based on our cam.  This event has already put down more snow that we’d had over the course of the entire month up to this point, and it did it in just a couple of hours.

 

It’s funny, in order to reset the camera board today I had to scrape it with my ice a scraper (unfortunately I don’t have a multiple boards with measurement sticks in them), and I was definitely grumbling a bit in the early morning – “Bah, I should just skip this, there’s nothing notable in the forecast today”.  Well, this is one of those cases where vigilance came in handy.  I guess my advice would be to stay on your game when it comes to snow observation in the Northern Greens because you never know when they’re going to throw one of these “unannounced” events at you.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone is caught pants down.  I hear 89 is a ****show.

This is legit.

This is why snow growth is so important. When conditions are right, you can fart and get 1"/hr snows. Add the terrain too.

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Coming up on 2" at my parents house in Williston (near Taft Corners off exit 12 of I-89). There is probably at least twice that by now in Richmond.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is why snow growth is so important. When conditions are right, you can fart and get 1"/hr snows. Add the terrain too.

That's true, and that's happened plenty of times. But normally we can see it coming 24 hours away.  Nobody I know saw 4-6" happening today. That's what is so neat. 

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Just now, adk said:

That's true, and that's happened plenty of times. But normally we can see it coming 24 hours away.  Nobody I know saw 4-6" happening today. That's what is so neat. 

Yeah I agree. But when those conditions are maximized, that's how those busts happen. We had an event back in 2014 that turned 4-8" into 12-18". 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why snow growth is so important. When conditions are right, you can fart and get 1"/hr snows. Add the terrain too.

Yeah even still I just went back and looked at say the 00z ECM... it was a partly sunny type forecast.

This wasn't like "Snow showers likely" turned into Advisory level snows.  This was "Partly Sunny" turned into 1-2"/hr.

Very cool.  I still think the mountains are on of the few spots where that can still happen in today's day of technology.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah even still I just went back and looked at say the 00z ECM... it was a partly sunny type forecast.

This wasn't like "Snow showers likely" turned into Advisory level snows.  This was "Partly Sunny" turned into 1-2"/hr.

Very cool.  I still think the mountains are on of the few spots where that can still happen in today's day of technology.

Yeah, it's one of those things though that you can look back and at least see what happened. I just think the WAA and perfect setup for snow growth was under-modeled a bit. Sometimes in weather all you need is something to be tweaked ever so slightly and boom! It's never linear.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, it's one of those things though that you can look back and at least see what happened. I just think the WAA and perfect setup for snow growth was under-modeled a bit. Sometimes in weather all you need is something to be tweaked ever so slightly and boom! It's never linear.

True true.  It's either it happens or it doesn't.  

When the model spits out 20% POP after 12z this morning...we'll we got the 20% chance it goes to town.  Say 8 out of 10 other times nothing happens but some Mtn flurries.

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This was the Euro run from the 11th, its funny how often we see stuff 6-8 days out then it disappears. Congrats, this is why get us the cold it will eventually snow is usually  on the money especially for you guys.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017111112_222_492_241.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017111112_228_492_215.png

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This was the Euro run from the 11th, its funny how often we see stuff 6-8 days out then it disappears. Congrats, this is why get us the cold it will eventually snow is usually  on the money especially for you guys.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017111112_222_492_241.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017111112_228_492_215.png

I wish our snow depth were anywhere near that. :huh:

Really coming down though, nice surprise!

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