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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

No, December is going to be a cold and stormy month. Early winter this year.

That's a very bold statement to make this far out.  We haven't had a true front-loaded Winter in years.

Beautiful late October day with a sunny and deep blue sky.  Textbook.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

During the November 1-10 period, the region is typically warmer than normal during cases when the PNA has values of -1.000 or below. The 1981-2010 base mean temperature for that period is 51.3°. During cases with the PNA values cited above, the mean temperature was 55.1°.

Considering the modest impact of ongoing warming throughout and following the 1981-2010 base period, it is likely that 5-7 days will see high temperatures at or above 60° during the November 1-10 period and fewer than 3 (perhaps even none) would see low temperatures below 40° in NYC. The possibility of at least one 70° day exists

Strong PNA- patterns do not necessarily mean that the month would wind up colder or warmer than normal in the East. November 1989 saw such a pattern early on, but severe cold later in the month. In contrast, November 2005 saw such a pattern at the start of the month, and November wound up warmer than normal across much of North America.

The idea that the first half of November will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal is supported by the EPS. The CFSv2 favors a continuation of the warmth throughout the month (weekly anomalies).

Finally, as the November thread has not yet been started, taking into consideration the forecast temperature anomalies on the MOS, there is now implied 68% probability that NYC will set a new record for the warmest October. If so, all of the monthly records for September through November (autumn period) will have been established after 2010. All in all, the 2000-17 period would account for nearly 24% of the 10 warmest values and the period beginning in 2010 would account for almost 12% of such values. NYC’s records go back to 1869, so both periods would be overrepresented. For the year as a whole, the following months would have seen record warm values established in the 2010-2017 period:

February: 2017
April: 2010
September: 2015
October: 2017 (likely)
November: 2015
December: 2015

Don, I think the month that really stands out in my memory for being insanely warm was March, 2012. NYC hit 90 degrees at the end of that month. The extreme warmth was just staggering. That was the only time I can ever remember needing a/c in March

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don, I think the month that really stands out in my memory for being insanely warm was March, 2012. NYC hit 90 degrees at the end of that month. The extreme warmth was just staggering. That was the only time I can ever remember needing a/c in March

March 2012 was exceptional. It set many monthly records across the U.S. and parts of Canada. NYC, itself, wound up 2nd warmest on record, just below the 1945 average.

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Remainder of Oct. averaging 59degs., or +6degs.  Should end up +7.5degs. and @Number 1.

As I calculated before in Banter, Nov. need be just +3degs. and we will have the warmest Fall ever.

This might have been court level evidence at one time that Nov. was going to stay under +3degs., but warm records are disobeying statics too easily lately.   lol.

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On 10/27/2017 at 0:02 PM, snowman19 said:

Don, I think the month that really stands out in my memory for being insanely warm was March, 2012. NYC hit 90 degrees at the end of that month. The extreme warmth was just staggering. That was the only time I can ever remember needing a/c in March

NYC did not hit 90F in March ever. The earliest 90F in NYC, I believe, was April 6, 2010.

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On 10/27/2017 at 0:02 PM, snowman19 said:

Don, I think the month that really stands out in my memory for being insanely warm was March, 2012. NYC hit 90 degrees at the end of that month. The extreme warmth was just staggering. That was the only time I can ever remember needing a/c in March

I thought March 1990 was just as warm, we were in the mid to upper 80s in the middle of the month wearing t-shirts and shorts!  Then, paradoxically, we got an inch of snow in early April 1990 lol.

 

December 2015 was on the warm side too.

 

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On 10/27/2017 at 10:07 AM, donsutherland1 said:

During the November 1-10 period, the region is typically warmer than normal during cases when the PNA has values of -1.000 or below. The 1981-2010 base mean temperature for that period is 51.3°. During cases with the PNA values cited above, the mean temperature was 55.1°.

Considering the modest impact of ongoing warming throughout and following the 1981-2010 base period, it is likely that 5-7 days will see high temperatures at or above 60° during the November 1-10 period and fewer than 3 (perhaps even none) would see low temperatures below 40° in NYC. The possibility of at least one 70° day exists

Strong PNA- patterns do not necessarily mean that the month would wind up colder or warmer than normal in the East. November 1989 saw such a pattern early on, but severe cold later in the month. In contrast, November 2005 saw such a pattern at the start of the month, and November wound up warmer than normal across much of North America.

The idea that the first half of November will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal is supported by the EPS. The CFSv2 favors a continuation of the warmth throughout the month (weekly anomalies).

Finally, as the November thread has not yet been started, taking into consideration the forecast temperature anomalies on the MOS, there is now implied 68% probability that NYC will set a new record for the warmest October. If so, all of the monthly records for September through November (autumn period) will have been established after 2010. All in all, the 2000-17 period would account for nearly 24% of the 10 warmest values and the period beginning in 2010 would account for almost 12% of such values. NYC’s records go back to 1869, so both periods would be overrepresented. For the year as a whole, the following months would have seen record warm values established in the 2010-2017 period:

February: 2017
April: 2010
September: 2015
October: 2017 (likely)
November: 2015
December: 2015

I hope it stays much warmer than normal because my boiler broke down for the third time in two years and I can't get it fixed right now so no heat (outside of space heaters.)

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On 10/27/2017 at 0:09 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Based on Don's post I don't see why November can't score a +8 or better, the weeklies were scorching, everything from water temps to persistence says we should see another record breaking month. 

I'll go with Top 3 for now. 

I wonder if the chances are good to have the warmest Fall on record?

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Not surprising. We have been in a persistent, massive torch since September 1st. November, as it stands right now, also has a very good chance of also being a well above normal month 

Well this is good news for me since I have a broken boiler that I can't have fixed right now (every contractor I talked to is super busy) so I am using space heaters- hopefully it can stay this way at least through Thanksgiving, although I heard there was a shot of cold air coming next weekend?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

I hope it stays much warmer than normal because my boiler broke down for the third time in two years and I can't get it fixed right now so no heat (outside of space heaters.)

It likely will, with the exception of only short periods into mid-November. The latest ensembles are forecasting a fairly infrequent event for the first half of November, during which the PNA will dive below -1.500. That kind of pattern has typically been much warmer than normal. In fact, the CFSv2 has now evolved in an exceptionally warm look for the month as a whole. The first half looks very warm based on the latest EPS. 

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