October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

Just recently it looked like a cold start, so I am willing to give it more runs. I just can't see the whole month being +8 or anything.

+8 seems too warm

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

No screaming PAC jet slamming into the WC and no death vortex over AK though....I'll take it for now.  Actually, that's a great PAC look, especially considering that we are in a Niña, no?  I feel like, with time, we'll get periodic ATL help to do the trick.

Right now, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic for a decent December (especially in comparison to the last few).

The weak La Nina pattern since last fall has had a poleward Aleutian ridge extension from time to time. That's what saved our snowfall last winter while it was still one of the warmest on record. 

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continue to underestimate the strength of the WAR longer range.

New run for November 1st

old run

 

 

Yep. The previously cold GEFS and Canadian ensembles have caved to the EPS. As we get closer to November, it’s looking warmer and warmer. Would not be surprised at all to see yet another well above normal month

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

No screaming PAC jet slamming into the WC and no death vortex over AK though....I'll take it for now.  Actually, that's a great PAC look, especially considering that we are in a Niña, no?  I feel like, with time, we'll get periodic ATL help to do the trick.

Right now, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic for a decent December (especially in comparison to the last few).

We'll probably see more cold spill east if November's pattern goes into December. 

Could be stormy too with such an amplified look although how strong the ridging to our NE/E will determine both. 

A true -NAO block would be really helpful though, not comfortable with that Newfoundland ridging. 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll probably see more cold spill east if November's pattern goes into December. 

Could be stormy too with such an amplified look although how strong the ridging to our NE/E will determine both. 

A true -NAO block would be really helpful though, not comfortable with that Newfoundland ridging. 

Yeah we usually don't get much snow in November anyway, so December is the more important month. As scary as the climate has been, we have had a long stretch of nice, sunny weather without summer heat. So there's a positive.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Great post as always Don. There is mounting evidence that November ends up warmer to much warmer than normal for the reasons you stated above. If it does, that would make for the 3rd above normal month in a row (Sept, Oct, Nov). We have been in a warm pattern ever since the 1st week of Sept

Right now, I think it's a pretty good bet. However, there remains some possibility that the start of the second half of November could wind up closer to normal/perhaps even a little below normal before the pattern might shift again toward the end of the month. I'm not sure right now.

[MJO812]

[CIK62]

Next 8 days down to 58degs., or +5degs.  For the rest of Oct., average is 59degs., also about +5degs.

This would work out to  +7.5degs. for Oct. and a new record.

[CIK62]

JB says colossal storm here Sun./Mon.  Will be closer to coast, he feels.

I will monitor Buoy 44025, (currently 11' waves predicted) during  the stormy period, to see which way they go.

[donsutherland1]

Through October 24, NYC (Central Park) has had a monthly average temperature of 66.1°. From today through October 31, the temperature could average as low as 55.2° and NYC would still see the warmest October on record.

Select Record Temperatures from Yesterday:

Record high temperature:
Bridgeport: 76° (tied record set in 1970)
New Haven: 76° (Old record: 74°, 1970)
New York City:
…JFK: 74° (Old record: 73°, 2001)

Record high minimum temperature:
Bridgeport: 66° (Old record: 61°, 2001)
Islip: 67° (Old record: 61°, 2001)
New Haven: 66° (Old record: 61°, 1959)
New York City:
…JFK: 65° (Old record: 61°, 1959)
…LGA: 67° (Old record: 64°, 2001)
…NYC: 66° (Tied record set in 1908)
Newark: 66° (Old record: 63°, 1959)
Westhampton:  65° (Old record: 61°, 2001)
White Plains: 66° (Old record: 61°, 1959)

Finally, Los Angeles had a high temperature of 104° yesterday. That smashed the old record of 97°, which was set in 1965. It is also the hottest reading on record this late in the season by 9 days.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

JB says colossal storm here Sun./Mon.  Will be closer to coast, he feels.

I will monitor Buoy 44025, (currently 11' waves predicted) during  the stormy period, to see which way they go.

It certainly looks like a high-impact storm and it is something that has been picked up here at AmWx with an appropriate thread devoted to it. Tropical interactions can lead to some pretty wild conditions.

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It certainly looks like a high-impact storm and it is something that has been picked up here at AmWx with an appropriate thread devoted to it. Tropical interactions can lead to some pretty wild conditions.

Timing nearly lines up with the 5 year anniversary of Sandy.

It always seems like the Oct 20-31st period sticks out for storminess, perhaps it's the perfect mix of late season tropics (still warm waters) and an influx of extratropical storms/nor'easters.

[CIK62]

Today marks 6 weeks of 90% of the days being AN.

I make it some +7.7degs. and just 1.30"  of rain since 9/13.

Weather regimes usually break after 45 days.

[nzucker]

21 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Just recently it looked like a cold start, so I am willing to give it more runs. I just can't see the whole month being +8 or anything.

I don't think November is going to be nearly as warm as October in terms of overall departure. I expect the -EPO will dump some cold into North America, which will slowly sweep east. I also expect that given the main burst of ENSO cooling has passed, the MJO/tropical convection will revert to more favorable.

Still expecting a warm month, but not +8. I think what we are seeing is the heat release of the 2016 El Nino directed towards the East by the nascent La Nina.

Global temperatures are also running quite warm...October should be the warmest since May. Global temps should slowly decline with the cooling SSTs due to La Nina and the approach of solar minimum.

[CIK62]

When viewed in 5 day chunks, all that cold air in the middle of the country, seems to die on the vine and retreat slowly back into central and western Canada.   Good thermal conflict here for some storminess.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, nzucker said:

I don't think November is going to be nearly as warm as October in terms of overall departure. I expect the -EPO will dump some cold into North America, which will slowly sweep east. I also expect that given the main burst of ENSO cooling has passed, the MJO/tropical convection will revert to more favorable.

Still expecting a warm month, but not +8. I think what we are seeing is the heat release of the 2016 El Nino directed towards the East by the nascent La Nina.

Global temperatures are also running quite warm...October should be the warmest since May. Global temps should slowly decline with the cooling SSTs due to La Nina and the approach of solar minimum.

I also do not expect a crazy warm departure like a +8 for next month. That said, it is looking very likely now that November is yet another solidly warmer than normal month and perhaps much above normal at that

[LurkerBoy]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I also do not expect a crazy warm departure like a +8 for next month. That said, it is looking very likely now that November is yet another solidly warmer than normal month and perhaps much above normal at that

Why do you say that

 

[bluewave]

Looks like November starts out with a version of the cold season La Nina -PNA composite. But with a more poleward extension of Aleutian ridge like last winter. The SE ridge or WAR is running stronger this year than a typical La Nina like we have seen this fall with the record temperatures.

 

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/compare/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CIK62]

Remainder of Oct. averaging about 57degs., or +3degs. and the whole 8 days is averaging 56degs., maybe +4degs. as normals drop.

Should still finish Oct. at about +7.4degs., and a new record.

With the normal 850mb temperature at the start of Nov. being +5C, we look to be BN for a while at start of month, but already Week Two is looking as hot as a fireman's helmet.

[NJwx85]

These clouds the last two days have been annoying. Most of New England continues to get dumped on today. The slow movement is indicative of the blocking pattern that continues to persist. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

20 hours ago, nzucker said:

I don't think November is going to be nearly as warm as October in terms of overall departure. I expect the -EPO will dump some cold into North America, which will slowly sweep east. I also expect that given the main burst of ENSO cooling has passed, the MJO/tropical convection will revert to more favorable.

Still expecting a warm month, but not +8. I think what we are seeing is the heat release of the 2016 El Nino directed towards the East by the nascent La Nina.

Global temperatures are also running quite warm...October should be the warmest since May. Global temps should slowly decline with the cooling SSTs due to La Nina and the approach of solar minimum.

If anyone predicts 2 or 3 above the 1981-2010 averages they will be right a majority of the time given recent trends. If this keeps up it will be hard to get much snow in the big cities especially NYC south, but if the timing is right as it has been I think especially NYC will continue to do fine but south of there would be more of a problem.

[LurkerBoy]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of Oct. averaging about 57degs., or +3degs. and the whole 8 days is averaging 56degs., maybe +4degs. as normals drop.

Should still finish Oct. at about +7.4degs., and a new record.

With the normal 850mb temperature at the start of Nov. being +5C, we look to be BN for a while at start of month, but already Week Two is looking as hot as a fireman's helmet.

According to what?

[CIK62]

15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

According to what?

 A Top Secret document the government has been sitting on for over 50 years.  lol   No, really, I think it was the previous CFS and the EURO 5 day slices.

[psv88]

Light rain, 0.02. Odd radar presentation.

[psv88]

[CIK62]

Remainder of Oct. averaging 58degs., or +5degs.  Should end month at +7.6degs.    The 8 day period is averaging 56degs., or +3degs. or so.

[snowman19]

On 10/26/2017 at 7:49 AM, bluewave said:

Looks like November starts out with a version of the cold season La Nina -PNA composite. But with a more poleward extension of Aleutian ridge like last winter. The SE ridge or WAR is running stronger this year than a typical La Nina like we have seen this fall with the record temperatures.

 

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/compare/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big time strong RNA (-PNA) pattern coming up for November. The models are in very good agreement now. Looks very Niña esque. The WAR and SE ridge are modeled to hold on strong too, no shock there given the last 2 months and the furnace off the east coast

[Isotherm]

34.5F, first frost.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Big time strong RNA (-PNA) pattern coming up for November. The models are in very good agreement now. Looks very Niña esque. The WAR and SE ridge are modeled to hold on strong too, no shock there given the last 2 months and the furnace off the east coast

We also continue to see the more poleward extension than usual for Aleutian ridge with a La Nina. That 500 meter block near the Aleutians for next week is close to record levels for November. So we get a downstream -PNA trough and a warm SE ridge/WAR pattern for our area.

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

During the November 1-10 period, the region is typically warmer than normal during cases when the PNA has values of -1.000 or below. The 1981-2010 base mean temperature for that period is 51.3°. During cases with the PNA values cited above, the mean temperature was 55.1°.

Considering the modest impact of ongoing warming throughout and following the 1981-2010 base period, it is likely that 5-7 days will see high temperatures at or above 60° during the November 1-10 period and fewer than 3 (perhaps even none) would see low temperatures below 40° in NYC. The possibility of at least one 70° day exists

Strong PNA- patterns do not necessarily mean that the month would wind up colder or warmer than normal in the East. November 1989 saw such a pattern early on, but severe cold later in the month. In contrast, November 2005 saw such a pattern at the start of the month, and November wound up warmer than normal across much of North America.

The idea that the first half of November will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal is supported by the EPS. The CFSv2 favors a continuation of the warmth throughout the month (weekly anomalies).

Finally, as the November thread has not yet been started, taking into consideration the forecast temperature anomalies on the MOS, there is now implied 68% probability that NYC will set a new record for the warmest October. If so, all of the monthly records for September through November (autumn period) will have been established after 2010. All in all, the 2000-17 period would account for nearly 24% of the 10 warmest values and the period beginning in 2010 would account for almost 12% of such values. NYC’s records go back to 1869, so both periods would be overrepresented. For the year as a whole, the following months would have seen record warm values established in the 2010-2017 period:

February: 2017
April: 2010
September: 2015
October: 2017 (likely)
November: 2015
December: 2015