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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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This big diurnal temperature range with very low humidity is more common for the Western US. Parts of NJ that dipped into the upper 30's this morning are around 80. That's how anomalous all this high pressure at the surface and aloft has been here.

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Seems like most of these wave breaking events from 2009 to 2013 would end up with a strong 500 mb block over Greenland. Now the heights almost always max out near Newfoundland  without the big -2.5 to -5.0 SD -AO/-NAO Greenland Block.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.68c16edf138118f66f0edae22e22cf79.png

 

 

 

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12z 10/21 ECM with 1.17 total QPF at NYC thru Day 10 with most of that 0.93 falling bewteen Tue and Thu.

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

A 39 degrees swing for me today from this morning, on the way back down now. 

 

Close here - 38F diurnal. Went from 40 to 78 today, and now down to 55F already. More akin to the interior West (a place like Grand Canyon at 6,000ft comes to mind - often in the 30s/40s by night and near 80 by day in the warm season).

We should be well down into the 40s again tonight with the sfc ridge overhead and concomitant low dew points. 

The foliage is actually brightening up quite a bit here now, especially on the maples, due to these cold nights/warm sunny days.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

12z 10/21 ECM with 1.17 total QPF at NYC thru Day 10 with most of that 0.93 falling bewteen Tue and Thu.

Shocker, as the event draws closer precipitation amounts go down. This has been the trend for months.

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25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Shocker, as the event draws closer precipitation amounts go down. This has been the trend for months.

i never have high hopes for heavy amounts from squall lines in this area. i do think we'll get a strong line but not enough for 1" +

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10/21

EWR: 81
TEB: 81
New Brunswick: 79
LGA: 79
PHL: 79
NYC: 78
TTN: 77
ISP: 76
ACY: 76
JFK: 76
 

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On 9/30/2017 at 1:25 PM, uncle W said:

some October stats for NYC......

decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall

1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55"

1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"

1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"

1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"

1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"

1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"

1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"

1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"

1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"

1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"

1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"

1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"

1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"

2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"

2010's.....58.5.......60.2....57.1......80.4...38.3......86...33......4.02"

1870---

2009.......56.8..............................80.0...36.8......................3.66"

1980---

2009.......57.2...............................78.9...38.0......................4.36"

Warmest...

63.6 in 1947

63.6 in 2007

63.1 in 1949

62.7 in 1971

61.9 in 1990

Coolest...

48.6 in 1888

49.7 in 1889

50.6 in 1925

50.6 in 1876

50.9 in 1869

wettest"...

16.73 in 2005

13.31 in 1903

12.97 in 1913

09.00 in 1927

08.63 in 1983

driest...

0.14 in 1963

0.28 in 1924

0.36 in 2013

0.43 in 1879

0.59 in 1892

0.66 in 2001

0.66 in 1909

Snowiest"...

2.9 in 2011

0.8 in 1925

0.5 in 1876

0.5 in 1952

Hottest max..

94 in 1941 10/5

91 in 1939 10/10

90 in 1927 10/2

90 in 1941 10/6

90 in 1938 10/17

89 in 1922 10/5

Coolest monthly max...

66 in 1888

70 in 1894

70 in 1895

70 in 1977

71 in 1981

Coldest min...

28 in 1936 10/27

29 in 1879 10/25

29 in 1976 10/27

29 in 1976 10/28

29 in 1925 10/31

29 in 1887 10/31

warmest monthly min...

45 in 1946

45 in 1971

44 in 2004

43 in 1994

43 in 1927

Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...

1876...32

1879...29

1877...29

1889...32

1904...32

1917...32

1925...29

1928...32

1933...32

1936...28

1940...30

1965...32

1969...31

1972...32

1974...31

1975...31

1976...29

1988...31

most 32 or lower days...

1974...3

1925...3

1976...2

1969...2

1940...2

1936...2

1933...2

1887...2

1879...2

..........................................................................

NYC looks a lock for top 4

 

Warmest...

63.6 in 1947

63.6 in 2007

63.1 in 1949

62.7 in 1971

61.9 in 1990

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Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

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