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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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some October stats for NYC......

decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall

1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55"

1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"

1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"

1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"

1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"

1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"

1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"

1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"

1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"

1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"

1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"

1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"

1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"

2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"

2010's.....58.5.......60.2....57.1......80.4...38.3......86...33......4.02"

1870---

2009.......56.8..............................80.0...36.8......................3.66"

1980---

2009.......57.2...............................78.9...38.0......................4.36"

Warmest...

63.6 in 1947

63.6 in 2007

63.1 in 1949

62.7 in 1971

61.9 in 1990

Coolest...

48.6 in 1888

49.7 in 1889

50.6 in 1925

50.6 in 1876

50.9 in 1869

wettest"...

16.73 in 2005

13.31 in 1903

12.97 in 1913

09.00 in 1927

08.63 in 1983

driest...

0.14 in 1963

0.28 in 1924

0.36 in 2013

0.43 in 1879

0.59 in 1892

0.66 in 2001

0.66 in 1909

Snowiest"...

2.9 in 2011

0.8 in 1925

0.5 in 1876

0.5 in 1952

Hottest max..

94 in 1941 10/5

91 in 1939 10/10

90 in 1927 10/2

90 in 1941 10/6

90 in 1938 10/17

89 in 1922 10/5

Coolest monthly max...

66 in 1888

70 in 1894

70 in 1895

70 in 1977

71 in 1981

Coldest min...

28 in 1936 10/27

29 in 1879 10/25

29 in 1976 10/27

29 in 1976 10/28

29 in 1925 10/31

29 in 1887 10/31

warmest monthly min...

45 in 1946

45 in 1971

44 in 2004

43 in 1994

43 in 1927

Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...

1876...32

1879...29

1877...29

1889...32

1904...32

1917...32

1925...29

1928...32

1933...32

1936...28

1940...30

1965...32

1969...31

1972...32

1974...31

1975...31

1976...29

1988...31

most 32 or lower days...

1974...3

1925...3

1976...2

1969...2

1940...2

1936...2

1933...2

1887...2

1879...2

..........................................................................

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One of the biggest PNA drops near the start of October of the 2000's so far. This is only the 5th year that the PNA dropped below -2.5.

Lowest value and date

9-29-17...-2.800..est

9-24-15....-2.676

9-29-10...-.2.576

10-01-04..-3.288

10-04-02..-3.422

pna_mrf_obs.gif.354aaf5d31f46f4a346e0c5cef4e5a5c.gif

 

 

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23 hours ago, uncle W said:

the ao/nao is forecast to go positive...last October had a very negative ao and the winter ao was positive...I hope the ao stays positive until November...

 

I agree. Many have asserted that October blocking is a propitious indicator; I disagree. The longer term statistics indicate an inverse correlation.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

One of the biggest PNA drops near the start of October of the 2000's so far. This is only the 5th year that the PNA dropped below -2.5.

Lowest value and date

9-29-17...-2.800..est

9-24-15....-2.676

9-29-10...-.2.576

10-01-04..-3.288

10-04-02..-3.422

pna_mrf_obs.gif.354aaf5d31f46f4a346e0c5cef4e5a5c.gif

 

 

all those years came near the same date and every winter that followed had a major blizzard...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

all those years came near the same date and every winter that followed had a major blizzard...

A big PNA drop around this time of year is more of a warm neutral to El Nino thing rather than cool neutral to a La Nina since 1970.

PNA drops near or below -2.5 late Sep early Oct:

2017...Cool neutral  to La Nina

2015...El Nino

2010...La Nina

2004...El Nino

2002...El Nino

1997...El Nino

1996...Cool neutral

1994...El Nino

1993...Warm neutral

1987...El Nino

1977...El Nino

1974..La Nina

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6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

46 here already, which is only a few degrees off the low from last night.

 

Never decoupled last night, so my low was 50F. But now that we're calm, it's off to the races; I'll be chasing you tonight. Down to 47.5F here. We seem to be close on RC nights.

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17 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

45F here. Chilly night incoming, got to get use to this it has been warm for so long lol.

Definitely a shock to the system.  Very crisp feel out there.

12 minutes ago, snywx said:

43/38 here right now.. Another night in the 30s coming up. 

Yeah you'll easily dip into the 30's.  I think I'll have to wait a little longer down here, the third week is typically first frost.

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12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Never decoupled last night, so my low was 50F. But now that we're calm, it's off to the races; I'll be chasing you tonight. Down to 47.5F here. We seem to be close on RC nights.

I agree, we are typically +/- a few degrees of each other.  Thinking tonight gets a little cooler here.

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