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bluewave

October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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53 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I remember blogging in late Sept. that the GFS had a +10degs. for the first 10 days of Oct.

Didn't Oct. 1990 kick off with mostly temps. in the 80's.  Could you post that data if I am correct.  ( I may have wrong year).

 

Between October 6-14 in 1990, 6 days had high temperatures of 80° or above in NYC. Also 13 of the first 15 days of October had high temperatures of 70° or above.

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New record for 80 degree days over the last month at LGA of 17. Only 5 less than the whole month of August this year.Also a new record for 70 degree or greater minimums.

 

59de2057e6de4_Screenshot2017-10-11at9_40_21AM.png.ad068aa75995b4e71dddf42c99f4e92e.png

59de221986166_Screenshot2017-10-11at9_50_31AM.png.9958cb633a4654119808396f7f79fa6f.png

 

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmest first 10 days of October across the area since 2007.

NYC....+9.3

LGA....+9.1

JFK.....+7.7

ISP.....+8.8

BDR...+8.5

EWR..+9.2

+8.2 here.

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmest first 10 days of October across the area since 2007.

NYC....+9.3

LGA....+9.1

JFK.....+7.7

ISP.....+8.8

BDR...+8.5

EWR..+9.2

The humidity has been making it feel a lot worse too. If it was dry it would be okay, but we've been getting stuck under mostly cloudy skies with warm temps.

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10/11:


PHL: 79
ISP: 77
NYC: 77
JFK: 77
ACY: 77
EWR: 76
TEB: 76
LGA: 74
New Brunswick: 73
TTN: 73

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Why the next 8 days are becoming positively cold, average down to 62degs., but still a +4degs.

In addition the first 40 degree morning may occur before the record date of the 20th.

We will probably be down to +7degs. for the month by the20th.---still record territory.

Using the colder looking last 10 days of month outlook, I think we will finish Oct. near +5degs.

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8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

The humidity has been making it feel a lot worse too. If it was dry it would be okay, but we've been getting stuck under mostly cloudy skies with warm temps.

Another run on 80 degrees coming for this weekend and potentially the following weekend also. So two more very impressive warm ups over the next 10 days.

 

ecmwf_t2max_12_nj_18.thumb.png.ab62651ba6ee7097d63cbc5d0e1ded79.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.thumb.png.c58d541b2e74194a7972ac0cb9b96972.png

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another run on 80 degrees coming for this weekend and potentially the following weekend also. So two more very impressive warm ups over the next 10 days.

 

ecmwf_t2max_12_nj_18.thumb.png.ab62651ba6ee7097d63cbc5d0e1ded79.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.thumb.png.c58d541b2e74194a7972ac0cb9b96972.png

Yep.  Like I posted in banter, this cool down is just a blip in the torch pattern.  And like you've said, normal temps feel like way below as we'll see on Monday and Tuesday.

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31 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yep.  Like I posted in banter, this cool down is just a blip in the torch pattern.  And like you've said, normal temps feel like way below as we'll see on Monday and Tuesday.

Yeah, the departures coming up will continue to be very impressive for this time of year. The normal high/low for the 15th is 64/50 and 62/48 on the 22nd.

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Negative 850mb temps. on the way in by Halloween.   Will probably prevent a record warm month from occurring.

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I believe the 67 degree SST's are near record levels for this time of year.

 

                               AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY HARB ENTRANCE 2050            62 67   70/ 21/ 27 1026.0          8/ 8
20 S FIRE ISLAND 2050            60 66   70/ 23/ 27 1026.3         10/ 8

midatl_oisst_anom_current.thumb.png.2d3f8ebf6f1a026773ca8b6ff45f97b7.png

 

 

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According to 45-day EURO the dates to watch for cold are 10/26---30 [midwest goes first], 11/09---12, 11/19-21 a solid 20degs. BN, fliping to 10degs. AN by 11/26.

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48 minutes ago, psv88 said:

All week looked like a beautiful weekend. Now all of a sudden it looks like clouds and rain. Unreal. Impossible to get two nice weekend days lately. It's maddening

at least here, it's a 20 to 30% chance of rain per Upton.  Give the dryness, I doubt we see much.

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Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had.

 

I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. 

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2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Do hurricanes coming toward the eastern US transport warm air masses with them? I've seen this written elsewhere as an excuse for the abnormally warm weather we've been having, but I don't understand how a couple of hurricanes can be responsible for the long term warmth we've had.

 

I thought a hurricane's track was a product of the upper air pattern already in place, not the other way around. 

I think there's more to it than that.  The pattern in place for most of the summer simply flipped.   I'm sure the canes added some warmth, but that's usually transitory.

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34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The RGEM does have this for tomorrow-the CMC also has it but further south-no other model agrees with it though

rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

Doing the Epilepsy Walk in Eisenhower Park tomorrow morning. Better not rain.

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9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Doing the Epilepsy Walk in Eisenhower Park tomorrow morning. Better not rain.

12z NAM is coming in with this feature (an IVT trough) further S and E.

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