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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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This big diurnal temperature range with very low humidity is more common for the Western US. Parts of NJ that dipped into the upper 30's this morning are around 80. That's how anomalous all this high pressure at the surface and aloft has been here.

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

A 39 degrees swing for me today from this morning, on the way back down now. 

 

Close here - 38F diurnal. Went from 40 to 78 today, and now down to 55F already. More akin to the interior West (a place like Grand Canyon at 6,000ft comes to mind - often in the 30s/40s by night and near 80 by day in the warm season).

We should be well down into the 40s again tonight with the sfc ridge overhead and concomitant low dew points. 

The foliage is actually brightening up quite a bit here now, especially on the maples, due to these cold nights/warm sunny days.

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25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Shocker, as the event draws closer precipitation amounts go down. This has been the trend for months.

i never have high hopes for heavy amounts from squall lines in this area. i do think we'll get a strong line but not enough for 1" +

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On 9/30/2017 at 1:25 PM, uncle W said:

some October stats for NYC......

decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall

1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55"

1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"

1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"

1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"

1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"

1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"

1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"

1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"

1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"

1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"

1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"

1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"

1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"

2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"

2010's.....58.5.......60.2....57.1......80.4...38.3......86...33......4.02"

1870---

2009.......56.8..............................80.0...36.8......................3.66"

1980---

2009.......57.2...............................78.9...38.0......................4.36"

Warmest...

63.6 in 1947

63.6 in 2007

63.1 in 1949

62.7 in 1971

61.9 in 1990

Coolest...

48.6 in 1888

49.7 in 1889

50.6 in 1925

50.6 in 1876

50.9 in 1869

wettest"...

16.73 in 2005

13.31 in 1903

12.97 in 1913

09.00 in 1927

08.63 in 1983

driest...

0.14 in 1963

0.28 in 1924

0.36 in 2013

0.43 in 1879

0.59 in 1892

0.66 in 2001

0.66 in 1909

Snowiest"...

2.9 in 2011

0.8 in 1925

0.5 in 1876

0.5 in 1952

Hottest max..

94 in 1941 10/5

91 in 1939 10/10

90 in 1927 10/2

90 in 1941 10/6

90 in 1938 10/17

89 in 1922 10/5

Coolest monthly max...

66 in 1888

70 in 1894

70 in 1895

70 in 1977

71 in 1981

Coldest min...

28 in 1936 10/27

29 in 1879 10/25

29 in 1976 10/27

29 in 1976 10/28

29 in 1925 10/31

29 in 1887 10/31

warmest monthly min...

45 in 1946

45 in 1971

44 in 2004

43 in 1994

43 in 1927

Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...

1876...32

1879...29

1877...29

1889...32

1904...32

1917...32

1925...29

1928...32

1933...32

1936...28

1940...30

1965...32

1969...31

1972...32

1974...31

1975...31

1976...29

1988...31

most 32 or lower days...

1974...3

1925...3

1976...2

1969...2

1940...2

1936...2

1933...2

1887...2

1879...2

..........................................................................

NYC looks a lock for top 4

 

Warmest...

63.6 in 1947

63.6 in 2007

63.1 in 1949

62.7 in 1971

61.9 in 1990

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That's fine, but it's not because the majority of the country is just flooded with warm air. Model guidance is heavily favoring an evolution to a dual blocking +pna pattern over the next week. It is initially centered more over the Midwest and lakes but shifts east. So those warm numbers will occur out ahead of the large full latitude trough slowly transitioning east, but the times they are a changing and by months end into early November it's a shock change into late fall/early winter in the east. 

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8 hours ago, doncat said:

Made it to 78 here Saturday which was a record for the date...am low of 47.

 

 

40F to 78F yesterday, and down to 41F this morning. 37-38 degree diurnal ranges, very impressive for this part of the country. Foliage is finally becoming more lurid as a result here.

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29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

10/22 00Z ECM has 3.26 QPF total thru D10

 

1/2 of that falls Tue/Wed (10/24 - 10/25) and the other half falls 10/30-10/31

Nice to see the Euro bump precipitation amounts back up, curious to see what the 12z runs do today. The GFS has also increased amounts as well especially for Tues/Wed. 

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4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Nice to see the Euro bump precipitation amounts back up, curious to see what the 12z runs do today. The GFS has also increased amounts as well especially for Tues/Wed. 

Just a matter of time for the EC which will be sandwiched between the deep trough over the Midwest and WAR pushing up along the EC.  We'll see how much we can cash in.  Halloween 9 days out but looks unsettled.

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5 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

That's fine, but it's not because the majority of the country is just flooded with warm air. Model guidance is heavily favoring an evolution to a dual blocking +pna pattern over the next week. It is initially centered more over the Midwest and lakes but shifts east. So those warm numbers will occur out ahead of the large full latitude trough slowly transitioning east, but the times they are a changing and by months end into early November it's a shock change into late fall/early winter in the east. 

Tbh it's more of a transient change to normal than anything. I think our torch is locked. 

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