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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°,

Is that likely to happen?

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7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Is that likely to happen?

There's a lot of guidance suggesting it could happen. Taking into consideration uncertainty and modeling error, even as the outcome is not yet assured, it's plausible. Taking the ECMWF through the 30th and then assuming the 31st finished with a normal daily mean temperature, the monthly mean would wind up near 64°. So, we'll see what happens. If this month winds up the warmest October on record, the outcome will represent another case where persistent warmth rather than extreme warmth during a short period of time was the driving factor.

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3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

An astounding 14 degree swing this morning from Hastings on Hudson to Queens.

Normal swing is 7. Large swing is 10. 14 degrees averages more than 1 degree per mile (but in reality there is a line around Van Cortland Park). 50 vs 64

I noticed a bigger than usual spread as well. I go a shorter distance starting in the Bx so the temp contrast is really compressed. Most of the temp change happens in a short span around the Cross County Pkwy. South of it is basically Bx lite. North of it, rapid temp drop begins.

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The MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 3.479 on October 18. That is a new October record for Phase 5. 2017 set the record on October 16 with an amplitude of 3.421. Similar extreme events have seen the seasonal winter temperature anomaly in the eastern U.S. (including the Midwest) wind up warmer than normal if November was warmer than normal or colder than normal if November was colder than normal. Aside from a possible cold shot during the first half of November from the impact of Lan's recurvature on the jet stream, odds lean toward a warmer than normal November right now. It should also be noted that Lan does not appear likely to rival Nuri's (2014) intensity as it recurves and passes north of the Aleutian Islands in the extended range.

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Most stations around the region are currently the 3rd warmest October on record through the 19th. The perma-ridge continues to dominate our pattern.

EWR...#3...NYC...#5....LGA...#3...JFK...#3...ISP...#3...BDR...#3...POU...#3...PHL...#3

 

500.gif.b0ac822bf18482c35ce15804f888d1fe.gif

 

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Based on guidance we should surpass those records, don't see much of a cool down. 

(.61)(65.8) + (.39)(x) = 63.7     Solving for x gives  60.0    Remainder of month (12 days) must average 60 degs. to end up beating the 63.6.   Next 8 look to average 64 already.

19/31 = .61    (31-19)/31 =.39   add  0.1 to current record.    A simple weighted average problem.

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Based on long term guidance October should end near normal and November should begin above normal temperature wise as the Southeast ridge reloads. If we can hold onto these 60's and 70's right through Thanksgiving that would be awesome. I find it amazing that it's October 20th and I've needed to wear long pants outside of work once so far.

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Low topped squall line potential for Tuesday could mix down stronger winds from aloft.

 

...DISCUSSION...
   Models suggest that an amplification within the mid-latitude
   westerlies, across the eastern Pacific into western North America by
   late this weekend, will translate eastward during the early to
   middle portion of next week.  This may occur in the form of a
   significant digging upper trough to the lee of ridging centered near
   the Pacific coast, from the upper Mississippi Valley into much of
   the eastern U.S. by late next Wednesday.  When and just how this
   feature consolidates with another perturbation initially over the
   lower Mississippi Valley remains unclear, but strong surface
   cyclogenesis appears at least a possibility across parts of upper
   Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region.  If this is realized, it is
   possible that any associated convective development embedded within
   potentially strong deep layer mean wind fields could aid downward
   transfer of this momentum to the surface, with a risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts.  At the present time, any such
   activity seems most probable Tuesday, east of the lower Great Lakes
   region into portions of New England, and/or across parts of the Mid
   Atlantic Coast region.  It is unclear if thermodynamic profiles will
   be supportive of lightning with this convection, which may be mostly
   low-topped in nature.

59ea2f31d2bd9_2017102012_GFS_105_40.83-73.92_severe_ml.thumb.png.6051f1215c1e8b06a7c0c01979867d8c.png

 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Low topped squall line potential for Tuesday could mix down stronger winds from aloft.

 


...DISCUSSION...
   Models suggest that an amplification within the mid-latitude
   westerlies, across the eastern Pacific into western North America by
   late this weekend, will translate eastward during the early to
   middle portion of next week.  This may occur in the form of a
   significant digging upper trough to the lee of ridging centered near
   the Pacific coast, from the upper Mississippi Valley into much of
   the eastern U.S. by late next Wednesday.  When and just how this
   feature consolidates with another perturbation initially over the
   lower Mississippi Valley remains unclear, but strong surface
   cyclogenesis appears at least a possibility across parts of upper
   Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region.  If this is realized, it is
   possible that any associated convective development embedded within
   potentially strong deep layer mean wind fields could aid downward
   transfer of this momentum to the surface, with a risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts.  At the present time, any such
   activity seems most probable Tuesday, east of the lower Great Lakes
   region into portions of New England, and/or across parts of the Mid
   Atlantic Coast region.  It is unclear if thermodynamic profiles will
   be supportive of lightning with this convection, which may be mostly
   low-topped in nature.

the modeled soundings are pretty impressive for a southerly flow event. those much above normal SST's are a big factor

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Based on long term guidance October should end near normal and November should begin above normal temperature wise as the Southeast ridge reloads. If we can hold onto these 60's and 70's right through Thanksgiving that would be awesome. I find it amazing that it's October 20th and I've needed to wear long pants outside of work once so far.

Just as long as it rains, it's been so dry lately that fire dangers are growing. 

I think at some point we have to come to grips that our baseline temp averages have risen significantly since the last major Nino event. 

You don't keep setting records and have multiple record high months in a 2 year period unless there's a major baseline shift. 

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Based on long term guidance October should end near normal and November should begin above normal temperature wise as the Southeast ridge reloads. If we can hold onto these 60's and 70's right through Thanksgiving that would be awesome. I find it amazing that it's October 20th and I've needed to wear long pants outside of work once so far.

I agree. Loving it. My tomato plants are producing like it's still August. I have put a jacket on a maybe a handful of times the whole fall while going out in the evening. Keep this for another month and then let winter hit. 

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38 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

I agree. Loving it. My tomato plants are producing like it's still August. I have put a jacket on a maybe a handful of times the whole fall while going out in the evening. Keep this for another month and then let winter hit. 

Winter doesn't just hit after a record warm Oct-Nov, look what happened after Oct 2007. If you want a snowy winter then it greatly helps if November is BN since it's often a precursor to the winter season. 

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38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Winter doesn't just hit after a record warm Oct-Nov, look what happened after Oct 2007. If you want a snowy winter then it greatly helps if November is BN since it's often a precursor to the winter season. 

What happens in December will likely provide strong insight. Since 1869-70, NYC had seen 17 cases when October had a mean temperature of 60° or above and November had a mean temperature of 45° or above (one of which was 2007). Mean snowfall for the following winter was 21.6" (median: 18.1"). 53% of those winters had less than 20" snow; 41% had less than 15" snow; 47% had 20" or more snow; 24% had 30" or more snow.

The subset that saw less than 4" snowfall in December wound up with a mean seasonal total of 15.2" (median: 11.9"). 73% of those winters had less than 20" snowfall and 64% less than 15". The most recent winter in that group was 2007-08 with 11.9" snow. The subset that saw 4" or more snowfall in December wound up with a mean seasonal total of 33.2" (median: 27.6"). 83% of those winters saw 20" or more snow and 50% saw 30" or more snowfall. The most recent winter in that group was 2013-14 with 57.4" snow.

 

 

 

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With today’s 73°-57° temperature range in Central Park, that station has a mean monthly temperature of 65.8°. If one incorporates the MOS MEX values and operational GFS forecast for the remainder of the month (with errors as high as 10° per day, which are unlikely in the near-term), there would be an implied probability of 51% for October 2017's surpassing Octobers 1947 and 2007 as the warmest on record.

Implied probabilities for select October monthly mean temperatures are below:

61°: 88%
62°: 76%
63°: 62%
64°: 45%
65°: 29%

Taking into consideration the 12z ECMWF, a monthly mean temperature of around 64° remains plausible.

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19 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i wish the green colors started at -8 

 

Yes they are definitely misleading. People look at the maps and equate green with the brown on the other side of the scale. I took a course on Arcgis for my geology degree and I would consider this color scheme a no no.

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