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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Amazing how the wet pattern flipped to dry.  Remember how many soaking rains we had back in April and May?

Warm and dry has been the default weather setting here. So we need to maximize any rainfall we get in late October while the MJO is still near record amplitude. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 63degs. or about +8degs.  All that talk of cold air coming was hot air.

We should be +7.4degs. by the 26th.  Trying to stay at least +6.8degs to finish as warmest ever Oct.

The last few days will put a damper on the warmest October ever. I think we'll finish between +5.5 and 6. 

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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

37 and 38 for the past two nights respectively here. Was hoping for first frost or 32F, but that looks like it will have to wait until next week. Average first 32F is October 18th here.

The 34 actually surprised me a bit, considering it came around 7:00 am, and at 6:00 am it was 36.  

I don't have data like you do, but I'm roughly on track for my first frost.  Freezes are usually late October, and hard freezes typically wait until November.

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The monthly temperature departures will get a bigger boost from the models trending much stronger with the ridge east of New England. The ridge is so strong that it forces the cold to go well SW of our area behind the cold front next week. 

 

eps_t2m_anom_noram_180.thumb.png.9fe759707802f7e61374b04cde98b356.png

 

 

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The monthly temperature departures will get a bigger boost from the models trending much stronger with the ridge east of New England. The ridge is so strong that it forces the cold to go well SW of our area behind the cold front next week. 

 

eps_t2m_anom_noram_180.thumb.png.9fe759707802f7e61374b04cde98b356.png

 

 

Looks like Euro is alot cooler in the long range than the GFS.

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like Euro is alot cooler in the long range than the GFS.

At the rate that we are going, the -11 daily departure on 9-2 in NYC may hold as the coldest departure for the fall(SON). The lowest this month so far in NYC is -6 on the 17th. The biggest cool daily departure in NYC for November 2015 and 2016 was only -8.

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On 10/17/2017 at 5:54 PM, Eduardo said:

Don, I was thinking about this yesterday when I saw the forecast for Lam.  Do late-season storms of Nuri's caliber have a long-term, seasonal effect on the pattern and possibly our sensible weather?  For example, did Nuri contribute in any substantial way to the wonderful EPO-driven tundra we experienced in the 2014-15 winter, or can we only say with confidence that it drove the November 2014 cold shot?

Eduardo,

I believe it is a short-term effect. The November cold shot can be attributed to it. The extreme February probably can't.

The  EPO can't be predicted at long timeframes with a great deal of accuracy, though there is some correlation between SSTAs and the EPO.

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Next 8 days still managing to average a ridulous 64degs. or +9degs.

We should be +7.7degs. by the 28th and have a 20 degree surplus or so to waste during the last four days of the month-----last  4 days could average -5degs. and this still would become the warmest Oct. ever.

After donning my sunglasses and looking at the next 45 days, there will be no 'Next 8 Days' with a - in front of it till Dec. sometime.  Best bet now is 11/3---10 maybe, since all other 5 day periods look AN.  We will see.

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28 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Wait, so it's already the warmest Oct ever in NYC?

Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°,

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°,

Based on guidance we should surpass those records, don't see much of a cool down. 

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