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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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25 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Meaning?

sorry just new 

That the pattern is going to get very amplified day 6-10 with the chance for our first widespread heavy rain and wind event in a while. The last time that many of us had an inch or more of rain was the beginning of September.

 

ecmwf_pwat_slp_noram_32.thumb.png.d66f0b086c93d4a9354cef8b1470b9e3.png

 

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Yesterday saw the temperature fall below 50° for the first time this fall in Central Park. 2017 is only the fourth year on record that the first sub-50° reading occurred so late in the season. The other three years are:

1955: October 16
1995: October 16
2005: October 20

In addition, on October 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 3.293. That was the 3rd highest figure on record for October in Phase 5. Only October 4, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.311) and October 1, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.298) had a higher amplitude.  The highest October amplitude on record occurred during Phase 1 of the MJO on October 18, 2011 (3.602). The following years saw the MJO reach amplitudes of 2.000 or above during Phase 5 in October: 1979, 1988, 1998, 2006, 2008, and 2010.

Typically November’s temperature anomalies in the East (from the MJO sample and late sub-50° sample) provided a good idea of the predominant temperature anomalies during meteorological winter in the East. Therefore, as goes November in the East, so might the winter go, so to speak when it comes to temperature anomalies.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Don, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Seasonal guidance seems to be keying in on those near record SST's east of New England for November. That's where most of the guidance shifts the mean ridge position to. Should that scenario verify, November would probably finish with above normal temperatures here.

 

sstanom0.png.a466217142b1d9265d3b95ead7453792.png\

cahgt_anom.1.png.24bde7ce46a6b310ece1aa322a4222aa.png

So far, it looks like a warmer than normal November could be on tap. A wildcard might be concern the possibility of a strong Pacific typhoon's recurvature. Much as happened with Nuri (2014), there might be the risk of a strong shot of cold sometime in the first half of November. For now, that's highly speculative.

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Today looks to be the only the 2nd below normal day of this month in the Park. The first being Oct 1. Yesterday was slightly above norm with the midnight high temp. Today will end 15 straight above normal days.

 

Meanwhile its still a wrap for Orange County...

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...The growing season has come to an end across Orange County in
Southeastern New York...

Widespread freezing temperatures occurred this morning across
Orange County, bringing an end to the growing season.

Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost
Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be
issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring
of 2018.
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16 minutes ago, dWave said:

Today looks to be the only the 2nd below normal day of this month in the Park. The first being Oct 1. Yesterday was slightly above norm with the midnight high temp. Today will end 15 straight above normal days.

 

Meanwhile its still a wrap for Orange County...


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...The growing season has come to an end across Orange County in
Southeastern New York...

Widespread freezing temperatures occurred this morning across
Orange County, bringing an end to the growing season.

Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost
Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be
issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring
of 2018.

Wow, that's an abrupt end to the growing season after such a warm start.  I think the season will hold on here until at least November, which is quite typical anyway.  34 last night, hard frost.

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

So far, it looks like a warmer than normal November could be on tap. A wildcard might be concern the possibility of a strong Pacific typhoon's recurvature. Much as happened with Nuri (2014), there might be the risk of a strong shot of cold sometime in the first half of November. For now, that's highly speculative.

Don, I was thinking about this yesterday when I saw the forecast for Lam.  Do late-season storms of Nuri's caliber have a long-term, seasonal effect on the pattern and possibly our sensible weather?  For example, did Nuri contribute in any substantial way to the wonderful EPO-driven tundra we experienced in the 2014-15 winter, or can we only say with confidence that it drove the November 2014 cold shot?

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19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday saw the temperature fall below 50° for the first time this fall in Central Park. 2017 is only the fourth year on record that the first sub-50° reading occurred so late in the season. The other three years are:

1955: October 16
1995: October 16
2005: October 20

In addition, on October 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 3.293. That was the 3rd highest figure on record for October in Phase 5. Only October 4, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.311) and October 1, 1979 (Amplitude: 3.298) had a higher amplitude.  The highest October amplitude on record occurred during Phase 1 of the MJO on October 18, 2011 (3.602). The following years saw the MJO reach amplitudes of 2.000 or above during Phase 5 in October: 1979, 1988, 1998, 2006, 2008, and 2010.

Typically November’s temperature anomalies in the East (from the MJO sample and late sub-50° sample) provided a good idea of the predominant temperature anomalies during meteorological winter in the East. Therefore, as goes November in the East, so might the winter go, so to speak when it comes to temperature anomalies.

Interesting as all three of those Octobers were followed by big snow storms that winter in NYC. :)

March 1956

January 1996

February 2006

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Warm run of 70's over the next week. Departures falling near normal  to below normal during the last week of October.

NEWARK              
 KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/18/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO
 X/N  71| 54  74| 53  73| 51  71| 53  73| 59  74| 61  71| 56  62 44 62

eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_168.thumb.png.7ef7dedeb3bc102656e2ac0436701dc2.png

eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_312.thumb.png.6fb772bdea6fbe37f3da9f11795aff6b.png

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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The 06z GFS was really wet with the storm for the early and middle part of next week with anywhere from 2.50"-4.00" of rain for most of the area, have to see if that continues in future runs.

Euro was 2.00"-2.60" for the area. This may be our best chance for a widespread heavy rain event while the MJO is still really amplified. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro was 2.00"-2.60" for the area. This may be our best chance for a widespread heavy rain event while the MJO is still really amplified. 

Amazing how the wet pattern flipped to dry.  Remember how many soaking rains we had back in April and May?

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