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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

It doesn't just go away actually, there's more cold air from where that came from and we get a nice trough possibly a +PNA setup.

 

All the people talking about how warm it's been...Since Thursday the temperatures went below freezing north of the arctic circle and yes it's been warm since than but not as bad as before that day, and now all of a sudden some may get below feeezing before the end of the month. Maybe even some flurries 

What? The arctic regularly goes below freezing in July. The arctic going well freezing now in mid-October means absolutely nothing for our sensible weather.  

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

where's the big cool down?

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

Models trending stronger with the WAR. Hopefully, this means a good soaking storm tracking along the stalled out front. But I will wait until this is within 120 hrs before getting my hopes up for some actual heavy rains.;)

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models trending stronger with the WAR. Hopefully, this means a good soaking storm tracking along the stalled out front. But I will wait until this is within 120 hrs before getting my hopes up for some actual heavy rains.;)

Euro shows more storminess towards the end of the run, hopefully we'll get something out of it. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro shows more storminess towards the end of the run, hopefully we'll get something out of it. 

Could be a decent storm signal. A piece of the WAR tries to hang east of New England while the trough amplifies over the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Hard to bet against that perma-ridge and near record warm October SST's east of New England.

 

midatl_oisst_anom_current.thumb.png.9c84f519e8ad2ff9bef78a51bb89ba5f.png

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Could be a decent storm signal. A piece of the WAR tries to hang east of New England while the trough amplifies over the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Hard to bet against that perma-ridge and near record warm October SST's east of New England.

the 12z eps has a much stronger ridge south of greenland which is a favorable spot for a big east coast event 

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Next 8 still averaging 62degs., or +6degs.

This would give us a +7.3degs. for the month by the 25th.  At that time we would have a surplus of 12 degrees over the record and 7 days to get rid of it.  Last week of Oct. must come in under +2degs., I would say to set monthly record. (+6.8degs. or better)

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11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the 12z eps has a much stronger ridge south of greenland which is a favorable spot for a big east coast event 

October 20-31st has been prime time for storms here during the 2000's. We seem to usually get some great amplitude to the pattern around this time.

Looks like this MJO is near record levels for this time of year.

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif.small.gif.a5d90213dddb7e40493a5c7e679a384f.gif

 

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