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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Big bust today forecast was sunny and low 80s

Most guidance had upper 70's today and we maxed out in the mid-70's with just a few breaks of sun. Still not bad for mid-October. Have to allow for more clouds with such high humidity this time of year.

This was the forecast from last night.

LaGuardia Airport, NY
   DRZL     PTCLDY   SUNNY    SUNNY    SUNNY    SUNNY    SUNNY
     /77    58/63    46/61    51/70    55/72    58/73    58/74
      /10    30/10    00/00    00/10    10/10    10/10    10/10

 

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         75    113 PM  83    1956  66      9       66
  MINIMUM         66    647 AM  39    2009  51     15       49
                                      1939
  AVERAGE         71                        58     13       58
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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if this is one of those Octobers when NYC doesn't drop below 40 degrees.


NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/15/2017  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22|MON CLIMO
 N/X  60  63| 44  59| 49  70| 56  71| 59  75| 63  76| 62  75| 62 47 62

KNYC_2017101512_eps_min_max_15.thumb.png.f920653b1b4d4a43292393678f2aefbb.png

 

 

I'd say it's a good bet

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Warm pattern continues this week after the brief taste of fall Tuesday into early Wednesday. It also dries out so the 70's next weekend may come with more sun than this past weekend.

NEWARK              
 KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/16/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23 CLIMO
 X/N  63| 42  61| 47  70| 51  73| 53  76| 55  76| 58  75| 57  73 45 63
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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Right now, the lows the next few mornings look like they may be cooler than anything at the end of the month. Especially in regard to the radiational cooling in the outlying areas.

10-25-26 might be cooler, but time will tell.

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This warmth seemed to come out of nowhere...who would have thought we'd have the warmest 30 days on tap and possibly the warmest October on record when we were freezing on 9/1?

More like the cooler temps in August into early September were a big outlier and October just returned back to the warmer base state that has been dominating.

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs trending stronger with the cool-down although it looks transient as of now. 

It doesn't just go away actually, there's more cold air from where that came from and we get a nice trough possibly a +PNA setup.

 

All the people talking about how warm it's been...Since Thursday the temperatures went below freezing north of the arctic circle and yes it's been warm since than but not as bad as before that day, and now all of a sudden some may get below feeezing before the end of the month. Maybe even some flurries 

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