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Hoosier

Major Late Season Heat Possible Again 10/2 ---?

113 posts in this topic

CMH rose from 48 to 79 yesterday. Already 3 degrees of this time yesterday (with clouds) and there isn't a cloud in the sky today. HRRR tops out at 83, sadly well short of the 1953 record of 89F. Records don't drop back into the low-80s until 10/17 actually.

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Glad to see this warmup fizzle down the drain.

Looks like I'm going to get my fall weather for fall camping.

Yea!

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On 9/27/2017 at 5:37 PM, rainsucks said:

Lol @ Jonger's wishcasting

How'd that turn out?

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

How'd that turn out?

I don't know how it's turning out for rainsucks, but at FWA it's turning out like this:

10/1-4:

Avg temp 64°

Departure +6.5°

10/5-10 forecast:

Avg temp ~ 64°

Departure ~ +6.8°

It's going make for a pretty good positive departure for the first 10 days of October.

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

How'd that turn out?

@ KRMY

~ 6 hrs @ 80-83 Tues afternoon vs 5 DAYS of 90+ with the real deal heatwave. A very slight difference I'd argue..:huh:  Admittedly, I've never followed real closely during the warm season stuff, but this was one of the more epic hot model run fails that I can recall. 

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I don't know how it's turning out for rainsucks, but at FWA it's turning out like this:

10/1-4:

Avg temp 64°

Departure +6.5°

10/5-10 forecast:

Avg temp ~ 64°

Departure ~ +6.8°

It's going make for a pretty good positive departure for the first 10 days of October.

Even though the super warm stuff didn't have the sustainability, it does look like some decent warm spikes embedded in what should be an overall warmer than average pattern.  I suspect both of us aren't done with 80 degree temps yet.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even though the super warm stuff didn't have the sustainability, it does look like some decent warm spikes embedded in what should be an overall warmer than average pattern.  I suspect both of us aren't done with 80 degree temps yet.

80s look likely this weekend and perhaps next week. If the Euro is to believed, maybe even into next weekend. 

This pattern is truly incredible, even though I typically loathe warm autumns. At least in October 2007, temps plummeted to well below normal levels by mid month before warming back well above normal. 

I don't see any convincing signs temps will trend below normal for longer than a day or two until MAYBE late this month. 

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It is unseasonably warm. Like many niña October's, this clearly will be a warm one. I assume jongers point is regarding "major heat". This is unseasonably warm. This is not major heat lol.

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1 hour ago, WxMatt21 said:

80s look likely this weekend and perhaps next week. If the Euro is to believed, maybe even into next weekend. 

This pattern is truly incredible, even though I typically loathe warm autumns. At least in October 2007, temps plummeted to well below normal levels by mid month before warming back well above normal. 

I don't see any convincing signs temps will trend below normal for longer than a day or two until MAYBE late this month. 

Sounds good to me! Loving this weather!

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55 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It is unseasonably warm. Like many niña October's, this clearly will be a warm one. I assume jongers point is regarding "major heat". This is unseasonably warm. This is not major heat lol.

It was 85 two days ago, that is major heat for October.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

It was 85 two days ago, that is major heat for October.

Could potentially see more 80*F+ Saturday - Tuesday, depending on the extent of precipitation / cloud cover from the remnants of Nate.

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Just now, Powerball said:

Could potentially see more 80*F+ Saturday - Tuesday, depending on the extent of precipitation / cloud cover from the remnants of Nate.

Yes and then potentially late next week too. Potential looks to be there as we have yet again another transient cool push.

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yes and then potentially late next week too. Potential looks to be there as we have yet again another transient cool push.

and people were lashing out on me for saying that the models were severely overdoing the "cold shot"....

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Just now, rainsucks said:

and people were lashing out on me for saying that the models were severely overdoing the "cold shot"....

People were lashing out because you are a one trick pony and just to be fair the heat didn't live up to its potential either.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

People were lashing out because you are a one trick pony and just to be fair the heat didn't live up to its potential either.

No it's because they don't like warm weather. I explained why I didn't think it would get cold mid month but I guess that's not good enough.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

No it's because they don't like warm weather. I explained why I didn't think it would get cold mid month but I guess that's not good enough.

I don't mind warm weather. I keep my home at 70F all year. 70 to 80F is fine outside, anything beyond that is annoying no matter the situation. I can't achieve the same level of comfort with clothing at 85+ as I can with a coat at 25F. 

My body still follows the laws of physics and biology.

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8 hours ago, rainsucks said:

No it's because they don't like warm weather. I explained why I didn't think it would get cold mid month but I guess that's not good enough.

No, it is because as stebo said you are a one trick pony. Has nothing to do with people not liking warm weather. Even people who dislike warmth...if anytime of year is good for them to see unseasonable warmth, it's oct. It's too late for it to be uncomfortably hot and too early to be interfering with snow time. My first memory of your posts was in August when I said looks like August would end up cooler than normal to which you "lashed out" witt nah it would torch. No explanation. And it did end up cooler than normal. So I must have missed it, what was your explanation for why it wouldn't get cold mid month?

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On 10/6/2017 at 4:39 AM, michsnowfreak said:

No, it is because as stebo said you are a one trick pony. Has nothing to do with people not liking warm weather. Even people who dislike warmth...if anytime of year is good for them to see unseasonable warmth, it's oct. It's too late for it to be uncomfortably hot and too early to be interfering with snow time. My first memory of your posts was in August when I said looks like August would end up cooler than normal to which you "lashed out" witt nah it would torch. No explanation. And it did end up cooler than normal. So I must have missed it, what was your explanation for why it wouldn't get cold mid month?

You said Sept would be cooler than normal, and we all know it obviously wasn't.

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21 hours ago, rainsucks said:

You said Sept would be cooler than normal, and we all know it obviously wasn't.

By the 23rd or so I changed my tune. I said since it was the 5th coldest Sept 1-10 on record Here, chances are the coming warmth wouldn't be enough to totally erase that departure. Once it was apparent that it would be a solid week of temps 15-20° I changed my tune. I gave a reason and once it became apparent I was wrong I said as much. You will say warmer than normal every month regardless lol.

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