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2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread


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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah it really is a surprise. Back in the late 90s, early 2000s I thought the city was a lost cause. The turnaround has been incredible. Today is also the anniversary of the big LES storm from 3 years ago. 

Nice vid! I remember that outbreak very well, I had about 36" in a few days was rood raking before Thanksgiving, then got hit again the following week but not as bad. Thought that winter was going to be epic then we went into the freezer and never came out. Lakes froze and it was game over for everyone 

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For those interested, the Capital Weather Gang has an article in yesterday's Washington Post concerning Cohen's Siberian October Snow Correlation or whatever it's called. Also a couple of interesting thoughts in the comments section if you're one to peruse those.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/16/snow-in-siberia-presents-mixed-signals-about-the-winter-outlook-in-eastern-u-s/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.d8670abe62bf#comments

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16 hours ago, Stebo said:

Aren't you in South Bend, your average high is 48... It is rapidly dropping and we are going into winter...

It just seems hard to believe we can’t even get a day into the 50s now when it was in the 90s late September.

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2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

It just seems hard to believe we can’t even get a day into the 50s now when it was in the 90s late September.

We are in a very progressive pattern...meaning not much time or space for big warm-ups or cool downs. If the pattern slowed down a bit, you would have more opportunities for bigger systems that pull warm air up in front, and cold air down on the backside. So, in reality, there haven't been many extremes in the temp. department, other than leaning on the colder side of average.

The warmth of September and October was harder to believe than this.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah another down year after like 5 in a row.

There have been some ridiculous differences between MI and IL/IN in recent years, especially IL.  How about 2006 with 123 tornadoes in IL and 10 in MI.  I mean Michigan averages less of course but it's gone to an extreme lately.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

There have been some ridiculous differences between MI and IL/IN in recent years, especially IL.  How about 2006 with 123 tornadoes in IL and 10 in MI.  I mean Michigan averages less of course but it's gone to an extreme lately.

The other shoe will drop at some point, history before 1978 says it should. Look at the period from from 1950 to 1977 for violent tornadoes in MI. Then you also have 2 major events in 1896 and 1920 in the state as well. I know the rating now is much firmer than then but, there hasn't been anything in comparison even with that taken into account since 1977.

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14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The other shoe will drop at some point, history before 1978 says it should. Look at the period from from 1950 to 1977 for violent tornadoes in MI. Then you also have 2 major events in 1896 and 1920 in the state as well. I know the rating now is much firmer than then but, there hasn't been anything in comparison even with that taken into account since 1977.

No doubt.  The era prior to 1950 suggests it as well.  I've posted this before but here's a map of F4-F5 tornadoes I put together a while back (based on data from Tom Grazulis' book).

 

post-14-0-66477600-1459206279.thumb.png.7eb623607bb0d3932f1f4b216cb05686.png

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

695 was the tri state tornado? That's the longest tornado track I've ever seen seen. 

Yep.  There's been some research in the past few years that has questioned whether it was actually quite that long, but even that research still had it with an enormous continuous segment.  We'll never know for sure.

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48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No doubt.  The era prior to 1950 suggests it as well.  I've posted this before but here's a map of F4-F5 tornadoes I put together a while back (based on data from Tom Grazulis' book).

 

post-14-0-66477600-1459206279.thumb.png.7eb623607bb0d3932f1f4b216cb05686.png

Add to this map from 1950 to 1977 16 F4 and 2 more F5 in MI, none since. It just defies logic how this state has avoided tragedy with a tornado outbreak with high end tornadoes. The closest we came was when near Toledo was in June of 2010, still ended up with an EF2 near Dundee.

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13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Add to this map from 1950 to 1977 16 F4 and 2 more F5 in MI, none since. It just defies logic how this state has avoided tragedy with a tornado outbreak with high end tornadoes. The closest we came was when near Toledo was in June of 2010, still ended up with an EF2 near Dundee.

Even Wyoming has Michigan beat in F4-F5 since 1978...

map.png.4a4c2a9476aa5d7729f5f3f8823adb51.png

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Even Wyoming has Michigan beat in F4-F5 since 1978...

map.png.4a4c2a9476aa5d7729f5f3f8823adb51.png

Same with MA/NY/CT. We are by far the largest state east of the Rockies besides Florida that isn't had one. The biggest shock on that map though is Colorado, though the Windsor tornado in 2008 would have fit if it had hit anything but it was mostly over rural areas, thankfully because that was a monster.

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It is interesting to see how much the Great Lakes interfere with strong tornado development. An exception to that was in April of 1956, when there were F3 to F5 tornadoes across West Michigan. Hudsonville was hit by an F5, and had the strongest winds on earth for the year of 1956! Impressive!

 

http://woodtv.com/blog/2015/04/02/april-3-1956-hudsonvillestandale-tornado/

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