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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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On 11/5/2017 at 8:34 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS in the LR have a nice look with a pattern change still popping up during the Nov 18-22 period give or take. Nicely positioned -NAO, neg tilted mean trof extending from NW Territories to the East Coast, some signs of weak ridging out west but not much so I would say the PNA look is more neutral.  

Pattern changer looks on track around Nov 18-19 via a strong GL low which moves into SE Canada and parks itself while pumping a ridge near Baffin island (west-based negative NAO). PV takes a trip into the NE US with some disturbances pinwheeling around it. Wouldn't be surprised to see a "threat/chance" for wintry weather sometime between Nov 23-Nov 29 whether that be frozen showery type stuff on a NW flow or something coastal tbd. Meanwhile, a SW Ridge tries to establish itself and transition into a +PNA with the AO going from negative to meandering around neutral. On the EPS/GEFS, this pattern has some holding power thru both ens extended ranges with a general ridge out West and a trof in the East/Northeast. 

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First mid 30's and rain of the year is in the books, hopefully not the first of many. I was never expecting frozen so not a disappointment here at least. I am a bit surprised folks to the N and W didn't get any frozen though. We were at 37 and rain this morning, thought for sure Berks and Lehigh would be 5 degrees cooler than us. With it being November 13th, I don't think really anyone can be let down. Any snow/pingers is unusual this early. 

 

Long range continues to look great on both the GEFS and EPS as well as both OP's. As RW mentioned, pattern changer storm this weekend leading to a trough setting up over the east. Does not look to be transient either and in fact the PNA looks to become more positive and AO/NAO both look to grow more negative through the end of the model runs. I also like the 23-27th period for a shot at something wintery for the area and would say there is a very good chance for at least our first snowflakes region wide at minimum. If LR ensembles continue to indicate the pattern actually becoming more favorable as time rolls on, then first week of December could be another time period to watch as far as as we have been seeing significant storm systems develop and roll through the area on average every 7-10 days or so since October and now into November. It has been a fairly active flow of late which is another good sign for the period ahead. I would expect any significant storm to favor N and W with the coastal plain and philly having mixing issues as that is climo for early December but signs are really starting to come together for an active beginning of winter.

 

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