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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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39 minutes ago, RedSky said:

2.20" wind has picked up finally coming from the west a snowstorm of leaves

 

Yep. Just took a walk while we have this "break" and it was a tad breezy. (15+mph) Moon and stars were breaking through at times. Crisp, hearing the leaves scattering around.....Fall.

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Received 2.33" yesterday and am at 0.35" at post time for today so far, for an event total of 2.68".  Temp began to fall of a cliff just after 12:30 am, from 59F to a current 47F.  Heavier rain band appears to be incoming.

Edit to add - my pressure bottomed out at 28.97 inHg (981 mb) yesterday, which was my lowest for the year to date!  Currently 29.23 (990). Rain up to 0.37" (daily)/2.70" (total) at edit time.

 

10302017-nexrad.gif

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Next 10 days looks seasonable to a bit above normal according to the EPS and Euro. Lots of cold air in canada and a very big ridge in the GOA. AO and NAO both look to be positive during this time as well as the PNA so very progressive pattern. 2-3 cool down followed by a warm up, a day of much above normal, then a cold front and repeat. Entire run is like that and by day 10 there doesn't look like much change. GFS and its ensembles are pretty similar. I do like the height rises in the GOA though and the amount of cold air around. Would be much more pessimistic if NA was mild as a whole but really it is just the east coast which just means we need a pattern shift to bring the cold air down from Canada. By mid month we really want to be seeing signs of a pattern shift though or the early winter calls could be in trouble.

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00z EPS was ugly for the first  half of november. GFS ensembles aren't any better. Much above normal temps. severe negative PNA, positive NAO. Major trough in the west and big ridge in the SE. The only encouraging sign is all of the cold air locked up in Canada. Pacific looks like it is the main driver of the pattern through the 1st half of the month. The 500 anomalies in Alaska and Greenland are also somewhat encouraging for a favorable pattern down the line. How long it takes to get there is another story though. I'd rather have this pattern now than in the beginning of December that is for sure. Still a lot of things can change from now until the end of November. Definitely not ready to write off the early start to winter.

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PHL & ABE on track for 2nd warmest Oct. on record.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**Top 2 warmest October on record for PHL and ABE and virtually
certain top 10 for all of our forecast area**

The 30 year normal listed below is for the period 1981-2010

PHL 64.1 degrees or 6.6 degrees above the October 30 year normal of
57.5. POR dates back to 1874 for the ranking below.

1. 64.5 2007

2. 64.1 2017

3. 63.5 1971


ABE 60.1 or 7.6 degrees above the 30 year normal of 52.5.  The POR
dates back to 1922 for the ranking below.

1. 60.8 2007

2. 60.1 2017

3. 59.5 1984


ACY (not the sea influenced Marina) 62.4 or 6.3 degrees above
the 30 year normal of 56.1. POR for the ranking below dates back
to 1894. ACY 4th warmest October.

1. 64.1 2007

2. 63.0 1947

3. 62.6 1949

4. 62.4 2017

5  62.3 1984



ILG  62.5 or  6.3 degrees above the 30 year normal of 56.2.
Wilmington 8th warmest October.


RDG  60.4 or 6.7 degrees above the 30 year normal of 53.7 The
ranking below is with incomplete data, missing the years 1913
and 1919-1925. That said, RDG would rank 6th warmest in the
available dataset. The warmest October average of 62.6 occurred
in 1947. The ranking POR dates back to 1903.

TTN 61.7 or 7.1 degrees above the 30 year normal of 54.6. Too
much missing data in the historical database to properly rank.

We`ll post the final dat tomorrow and possibly have some other
supportive ranking from the following perspective link.
www.sercc.com/perspectivesmap?region=nrcc

&&

 

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4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Can't recall ever seeing so much green still in the trees for Halloween.

We were talking about that today - so far about 30% of the trees have lost most or all of their leaves, then maybe a few with mixed colors (sweet gum and tulip poplars), and many more still mostly green. That's okay, saving the good stuff for later in December is my optimistic viewpoint.

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