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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Here above the frost line in Chester County we could go no lower than 37.0...however plenty of frost all around below me on the drive to school with my kids.

First morning in the 30's since back on May 8th when we hit 37.3. Will not get out of the 50's here today. We might touch 70 if we are lucky next weekend...

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9 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Long range on the euro ens and GFS ens are showing signs for a cooler than average pattern emerging in the beginning of November. Looks good for troughing in the east with a big ridge in the west. Things continuing to look good for an early and fast start to winter.

We better hope so there are strong signals for a quick winter exit after January, and what happened to next weeks cold wave? I did some checking and a couple pepper plants were untouched by frost this week. Models right now verbatim the rest of the month indicate my first ever October not only without a freeze but with no frost!

 

 

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if the 12z gfs comes true for next tuesday, it could be a very interesting severe weather day. set up screams low topped squall line and has absolutely perfect timing with the front coming through. Great shear in place, far enough from the low to stay out of the rain too so there should be enough instability. Could be a decent wind event. Of course the euro is a good 100-150 west with the low placement and would be much different timing wise. Still something to at least watch. The long range on both models continue to look promising as well with a ton of cold air up in canada and the first real cold shot coming through in the Halloween time period. Could be the first freeze potential. height anomalies continue to indicate a -NAO and +PNA during this period. Hoping to write up my winter forecast on Sunday.

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A bit chillier this morning with the radiational cooling and had a low of 48 (vs yesterday morning's 51F).  Quick rebound allowed me to max out at 75F and noticed some high clouds streaming in this afternoon.  Soon as the sun set, the temp has been dropping quickly.  Currently partly cloudy and down to 64.

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Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

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8 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

I tend to agree with Larry's thinking attm. Not looking like a blockbuster overall but not a dud either. I am sticking with my original thinking for now that early winter will feature more/greater negative temp anomalies than the latter part with increased threat for wintry precip and an active storm pattern during the first half of the season (D and first half J). Could be wrong but I think the lack of 'favorable' and sustained blocking at higher latitudes will not help us once again. "Transient blocking pattern" and/or "transient cold snap" may become popular phrases again later this season but that's not to say we wont get a stretch here and there especially first half but not weeks upon weeks of relentless cold and snowy weather. 

I really like the way Oct has played out so far keeping what cold air there is up North and allowing for expansion at higher latitudes rather than emptying South into the lower 48. It seems when we get a -AO early on it takes much longer for the cold pool to regain a foothold up North until later on which also tends to give us more of a backloaded winter. What I am seeing on the LR is a gradual successive drain of cold air over the next few weeks rather than one massive blast (blue Norther) which tends to bode well for us early-on imho. Early Nov looks to start to feature a more stormy pattern with leakage of Canadian airmasses as I alluded to. I do however see signs that any trof/blocking will be transient for a while. 

it will be interesting to see what happens with the SE Ridge that has been locked in. The active Caribbean tropical season has my interest piqued as well. This could present a few possibilities as we move forward if this feature persists...... 1) Storm track forced farther North, 2) Increased chance of AN temps depending on the strength/timing/location of this feature, and 3) increased threat for more overunning systems (front end thumps) changing to a mixed bag/rain as this relates to #1.

I've gotten more into detail than I had hoped here without allowing Oct to finish out. I will try and expand on this as the month closes out.

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Beautiful weekend! Ended up on the beach in Sea Isle both yesterday and today. Made it to 70.1 at the beach and 70.8 here in NW Chesco.

Of interest if the month ended today we would be the warmest (barely) October in Chester County history back to 1894. There have only been 4 October months with an average temperature that finished at 60 degrees or higher - below are the records

2017 - 61.3

1900 - 61.2

1919 - 60.3

1920 - 60.1

1941 - 60.0

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Really liking tomorrow's severe weather threat. Timing is just about perfect for our area to maximize potential instability. Soundings look like they are signaling a tornado threat but it is largely based on how much instability builds before the front comes through. regardless, there will be multiple rounds of squall lines it looks like with the potential for low topped supercells. I can really see several tornado reports tomorrow if we can get that little bit of instability. 

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Interesting storm track for the period around Halloween. Euro has LP track from FL Keys off the SE Coast then NNE and explodes as it nears New England. GFS has a similar setup. Obviously about 6 weeks too early to be talking about frozen but a storm track off the coast is certainly a better sign than storm track setting up over the Apps. Yet another positive sign for the early part of winter imo.

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Not giddy about the GFS snow bomb for the western half of the state next weekend as shown in the MA thread, too me that has all the feel of frankenstorm 2011 and the winter of 2012 was !$&@%!

 

 

 

And like that models go from a track well off the coast to an inland track lol. I hope this isnt a prelude to winter where the models show something ok then pull the rug out from under us.

 

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3 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Temp bumped up to 70F at some point after midnight, now back down to 68F. Winds are howling but rain has been an underperformer so far. Radar blossoming a bit in the last few frames so we'll see if it produces much.

Yeah - my high this morning was 73F and am down to 68F.  I didn't get any measurable rain until just after 5:30 this morning and am currently at 0.08" with light rain and some breezes.  Seems much of it started breaking up as it reached Philly metro, with a stronger band going south of here.  The front looks to be near Harrisburg but not much ahead or behind it.

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Models did a very poor job with the front timing today and as a result pretty much everywhere is going to massively bust on precip. NAM and GFS were spitting out 1 to 2 inch totals for NJ and SE PA and looks like most places will be lucky to see a half inch. Very big short term fail across the board.

Looks like the Allentown/Bethlehem area is getting some heavier rains at the moment but everywhere else is pretty spotty.  Am up to 0.11" so far with some sporadic light rain.

 

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