Welcome to American Weather
Hoosier

October 2017 Discussion

507 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway...

I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now.

 

9 hours ago, Stebo said:

You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing.

This. As I get older, I like warmth more and more. I actually said in a post awhile back that I prefer warmth until mid-November then flip the switch to cold and I'd be happy. Not rooting for it, but it looks like the first legit shot at flakes flying somewhere in the subforum (other than bo and co.).

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Stebo said:

You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing.

And who roots for garbage heat in September? It's going to be annoying as hell to hear him for the next 6 months whine about people who like cold weather. This is already one of the dullest Fall color shows in probably over a decade, thanks I'm sure to the late Sept heat after the color change started, and by Nov 1st I'm in winter mode anyway. So I'm rooting for cold. I mean November is an in between month anyway so I don't want to "waste" it or anything, but my winter switch is turned on Nov 1st and doesn't go off until April. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The calendar says October while my mind daily grind is full summer. Was swimming in lake St Claire two weeks ago, camping last weekend and working outside is envious of those in office jobs. Top shelf fall weather.... Transient cold on tap, will the be arctic outbreak to the mind and skin.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DAFF said:

The calendar says October while my mind daily grind is full summer. Was swimming in lake St Claire two weeks ago, camping last weekend and working outside is envious of those in office jobs. Top shelf fall weather.... Transient cold on tap, will the be arctic outbreak to the mind and skin.

 

Cold doesn't look so transient on ensembles. This week's weather I think has helped salvage some nice color after the heat of late September tried frying it. We have had cold mornings and mild afternoons, daily 20° to 35° diurnal temp swings.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a gorgeous fall day yesterday. High of 69 and blue skies. A tad breezy but still took the canoe out on the river. Don't think I've ever done that this late in the year.

Thursday managed to get in a 48km bike ride. Actually going to camp up on Georgian Bay this weekend. Such a great month! If anything this warmth is keeping me active and healthy. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was looking at the CFS for November, and talk about an enormous flip from just 2 days ago.  Weird to see it shift that drastically that fast.  Of course this is little more than entertainment value at this point as the end of month runs are the ones to pay more attention to, as has often been mentioned.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.1bf88672b44cbc8ba88894e80e16fd88.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What looks likely at this point is 2-3 days of below average temps, followed by moderation toward the end of the week. The moderation is more prolonged on the 00z ECMWF but ensembles suggest a quicker return to colder temps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah that GFS run is pretty crazy. Chances for quite a bit of cold and chances of lake effect rain/snow in higher elevations.  all locations.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like ORD may hit 80 today as well.

Today is the 39th consecutive above-normal day at ORD.  Even more amazing is that there has only been one day this entire cool season with a low temp cooler than 47.  The normal low for today is 41.  Crazy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Looks like ORD may hit 80 today as well.

Today is the 39th consecutive above-normal day at ORD.  Even more amazing is that there has only been one day this entire cool season with a low temp cooler than 47.  The normal low for today is 41.  Crazy.

I doubt it hits 80 at ORD.  Temp is running a little behind yesterday and the high was 78 yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday looks like a possible candidate for some wet flakes mixing in as far south as parts of IA/IL.  As usual at this time of year, how much warmth is in the lowest levels of the atmosphere is the question.  Freezing levels may get just low enough for flakes to survive to the ground.  This is hardly a done deal but don't be surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know why we'd be seeing such a major cold shot for the last week of Oct? I thought nina falls were usually warm, and aren't we going to be in phase 7 which usually means ridging in the east this time of the year? What's going on here? Just wondering.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, I notice more often than not troughing is more common than ridging in the Eastern US. What's the deal with that? Part of me thinks the Hudson Bay plays a role, but I'm not entirely sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An unusual MJO propagation into the western hemisphere during a La Nina may set the stage for a more prolonged period of cooler/colder than normal temps for a good portion of the north-central and northeastern US into early November.  The cause of the cooldown is pretty straight-forward, the strong phase 5 MJO and re-curving west Pacific typhoon.  Re-curving typhoons are one of my favorite "teleconnections" because that teleconnection seemingly rarely fails to produce a fairly deep trough in the central or eastern US 7-10 days later (though how long that lasts is often quite variable), and after some uncertainty the op runs and ensembles are really dropping that trough in right on time next weekend into the following week. 

My initial expectation was we'd go mild again pretty quickly after a maybe 5-7 day shot or at least see more of a -PNA return which would keep the cold farther west, due to the expectation that the MJO would get into phase 6 or 7 and then head towards the C.O.D. and that we'd possibly revert back to the fairly warm pattern we seem to have been stuck in so far this fall.  If the MJO remains coherent into the western hemisphere, phases 7-8-1 are not warm phases this time of year, and the ensembles have been gradually trending higher with heights over western Canada and Alaska during the first week of November, suggesting troughing remaining over the central or eastern US with below normal temps through at least the first week of November.  My analogs are pretty cold for November and December after a warm October. 

59ebec08cb6f6_ECMMJO.gif.e1b739bece548d2b8f157fe308d2639d.gif

59ebec242c434_MJOcorrelation.png.f40b1a1e431adbd32c6fed3a1abbccef.png

59ebec35e56f3_Novemberanalogs.png.ce7966f06d4da1b78c48f1e3348d188e.png

59ebec49db908_Decemberanalogs.png.b10b75aaa2a0337a1a844bb815449766.png

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Does anyone know why we'd be seeing such a major cold shot for the last week of Oct? I thought nina falls were usually warm, and aren't we going to be in phase 7 which usually means ridging in the east this time of the year? What's going on here? Just wondering.

 

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Also, I notice more often than not troughing is more common than ridging in the Eastern US. What's the deal with that? Part of me thinks the Hudson Bay plays a role, but I'm not entirely sure. 

It's just a coincidence, or (as some may call it) bad luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/20/2017 at 1:14 PM, Hoosier said:

It would basically be on the 20th anniversary of this.  Not sure how many people remember this storm, but I do, even though nothing fell at my location.  My grandparents were flying home and had a scheduled stopover in Omaha.  It was a mess out there.  I remember seeing the images on TWC of downed branches all over the place.

19971028_072_total.png.e47b96bb9438d84a1879ca5c5b0c521b.png

I drove thru a bit of that storm in WMI. I like those maps in general, but find them to be a bit off in amounts. Kalamazoo had a solid 8" and it brought down a massive amount of tree limbs and a lot of power was out in that region!  Such a strange storm for two things. The time of year, and track. CO front range storms don't normally become SMI storms. Seems almost non-existent in my memory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

78 at ORD yesterday and 77 today, a nice way to end this extension of summer we've had.

Looks like fall is delayed, but not denied... With it looking more and more like the first cold day of the season on Tues. High in the 40's and lows in the 30's, with flakes possible in WI/MI.

Beyond looks fairly chilly as well. All good things come to an end I guess...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS WPC graphics show 1.25"+ in northern Ohio and up to 2.97" of rain in Detroit with this upcoming low pressure on Monday night. That 2" certainly would be an annoyingly rainy day for this time of year. In fact, SREF ensemble maxes show over 3" all over Ohio, so maybe 1.5" could be expected

imLxc5u.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still 70 degrees as we approach midnight.  The gusty south winds from earlier continue.  Still getting 20-30mph gusts from time to time.  Hit 79 here, and 81 at MLI/DVN today.  Tomorrow looks like a dark, rainy day with temps stuck in the 50s.  Big change from today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.