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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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47 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro agrees with the NAM on this.

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_36.png

Not sure how much will stick with temps looking to be above freezing while precipitating, and a lot of residual warmth this early in the season.  Would certainly undercut what the maps are suggesting, but maybe enough for a coating, especially colder surfaces.  

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ILN's latest thoughts.

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
327 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today, with rain and
cooling temperatures coming in behind it. After the
precipitation ends on Saturday morning, much cooler conditions
will be in place over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3PM surface observations indicate that the cold front has
entered the ILN CWA and is slowly making its way east. The
forward motion of this front is not especially fast, and as has
been expected, the precipitation has almost exclusively
developed behind it. This seems to be more aligned to the
theta-e gradient in the 850mb-700mb layer, along with aligning
more favorably with upper-level support.

The basics of the forecast are straightforward -- a gradual
spreading of PoPs from west to east, with 100-percent chances of
precipitation for every grid point in the forecast area. Winds
shift to the WNW (and may remain slightly gusty for a while)
along with a steep drop in temperatures that will continue into
the overnight hours. Though precipitation amounts of several
tenths of an inch (over a half inch in the SW ILN CWA) are
possible, heavy rain is not expected. One thing that is notable
is that the front is forecast to slow and lose some definition
as the night progresses, which is likely one reason why
precipitation amounts should be heavier further to the west.

Two wrinkles to the forecast involve the potential for wintry
precipitation. There have been several spots with enhanced
radar echoes over Indiana today, along with a few reports of
sleet mixing in with the rain. Looking at HRRR soundings, there
does appear to be a narrow cool layer at around 925mb that will
slowly advect west along with the greatest ascent. Though said
ascent may be gradually weakening with time, and thus this part
of the forecast is not of the highest confidence, there does
appear to be a chance for some sleet to mix in during the late
evening / early overnight hours, primarily in the western half
of the forecast area. Nothing beyond a nuisance accumulation is
expected.

The second concern is the possibility of a change to snow on the
back side of the band of precipitation. PoPs were adjusted
carefully based on 12Z WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM projections, in order to
keep the cut-off timing as sharp as possible. Nonetheless,
temperatures should be dropping into the 30s before this occurs,
at least where temperatures will be coldest in the western half
of the ILN CWA. This has forced the inclusion of a rain/snow mix
in the final hour or two in which precipitation will be
possible. The most likely scenario will be for most locations to
not receive any accumulations from this mix. However, even along
the back edge of the precipitation, there may be some slightly
heavier waves -- recent HRRR and RAP runs have indicated this.
Thus, it appears possible that there could be some isolated
tenth-or-two accumulations (if the warm antecedent conditions do
not melt everything that falls). Another cause for uncertainty,
though, is that sounding profiles may be somewhat isothermal --
which could keep hydrometeors just on the warm side of the
freezing mark as they fall.

 

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A record's a record, but lol.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
750 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2017

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA...

TODAY/S TRACE OF SLEET AT THE INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 
TIES THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AKA 
SNOWFALL...SET IN 2008 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
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8 hours ago, UMB WX said:

I was surprised to not read about some big totals up there by, Bo in the UP.   Are they getting warmed tongued or something

New AFD is ramping up totals :)



 


 

 

19 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Enjoying watching the snowflakes fall in the lights up at Michigan Tech...these webcams are a great opportunity to track the winter weather in the UP. Looking forward to some pictures, Bo!

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/mid-campus/motion.html

 

1.61" of rain today (7.85" for the month)...dry slotted now and 34.  Should see some flakes later tonight and in the morning, with a few inches possible. 

Wow @ some of the snow falling west of here!  Early start on the snowpack for some locations.

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10 hours ago, Chinook said:

Northwest Minnesota saw snow yesterday, and so did I. This is worse, though

nymq3uw.jpg

At one point my nws point forecast was to get 6-12 inches with this storm. I got 2 inches! 

The wind was real though. If this had been a winter storm with frozen snow covered ground it would have been a region wide blizzard shutting things down for a day or more.

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