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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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Just a gorgeous fall day yesterday. High of 69 and blue skies. A tad breezy but still took the canoe out on the river. Don't think I've ever done that this late in the year.

Thursday managed to get in a 48km bike ride. Actually going to camp up on Georgian Bay this weekend. Such a great month! If anything this warmth is keeping me active and healthy. 

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I was looking at the CFS for November, and talk about an enormous flip from just 2 days ago.  Weird to see it shift that drastically that fast.  Of course this is little more than entertainment value at this point as the end of month runs are the ones to pay more attention to, as has often been mentioned.

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10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Looks like ORD may hit 80 today as well.

Today is the 39th consecutive above-normal day at ORD.  Even more amazing is that there has only been one day this entire cool season with a low temp cooler than 47.  The normal low for today is 41.  Crazy.

I doubt it hits 80 at ORD.  Temp is running a little behind yesterday and the high was 78 yesterday.

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Tuesday looks like a possible candidate for some wet flakes mixing in as far south as parts of IA/IL.  As usual at this time of year, how much warmth is in the lowest levels of the atmosphere is the question.  Freezing levels may get just low enough for flakes to survive to the ground.  This is hardly a done deal but don't be surprised.

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Does anyone know why we'd be seeing such a major cold shot for the last week of Oct? I thought nina falls were usually warm, and aren't we going to be in phase 7 which usually means ridging in the east this time of the year? What's going on here? Just wondering.

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An unusual MJO propagation into the western hemisphere during a La Nina may set the stage for a more prolonged period of cooler/colder than normal temps for a good portion of the north-central and northeastern US into early November.  The cause of the cooldown is pretty straight-forward, the strong phase 5 MJO and re-curving west Pacific typhoon.  Re-curving typhoons are one of my favorite "teleconnections" because that teleconnection seemingly rarely fails to produce a fairly deep trough in the central or eastern US 7-10 days later (though how long that lasts is often quite variable), and after some uncertainty the op runs and ensembles are really dropping that trough in right on time next weekend into the following week. 

My initial expectation was we'd go mild again pretty quickly after a maybe 5-7 day shot or at least see more of a -PNA return which would keep the cold farther west, due to the expectation that the MJO would get into phase 6 or 7 and then head towards the C.O.D. and that we'd possibly revert back to the fairly warm pattern we seem to have been stuck in so far this fall.  If the MJO remains coherent into the western hemisphere, phases 7-8-1 are not warm phases this time of year, and the ensembles have been gradually trending higher with heights over western Canada and Alaska during the first week of November, suggesting troughing remaining over the central or eastern US with below normal temps through at least the first week of November.  My analogs are pretty cold for November and December after a warm October. 

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2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Does anyone know why we'd be seeing such a major cold shot for the last week of Oct? I thought nina falls were usually warm, and aren't we going to be in phase 7 which usually means ridging in the east this time of the year? What's going on here? Just wondering.

 

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Also, I notice more often than not troughing is more common than ridging in the Eastern US. What's the deal with that? Part of me thinks the Hudson Bay plays a role, but I'm not entirely sure. 

It's just a coincidence, or (as some may call it) bad luck.

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On 10/20/2017 at 1:14 PM, Hoosier said:

It would basically be on the 20th anniversary of this.  Not sure how many people remember this storm, but I do, even though nothing fell at my location.  My grandparents were flying home and had a scheduled stopover in Omaha.  It was a mess out there.  I remember seeing the images on TWC of downed branches all over the place.

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I drove thru a bit of that storm in WMI. I like those maps in general, but find them to be a bit off in amounts. Kalamazoo had a solid 8" and it brought down a massive amount of tree limbs and a lot of power was out in that region!  Such a strange storm for two things. The time of year, and track. CO front range storms don't normally become SMI storms. Seems almost non-existent in my memory.

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78 at ORD yesterday and 77 today, a nice way to end this extension of summer we've had.

Looks like fall is delayed, but not denied... With it looking more and more like the first cold day of the season on Tues. High in the 40's and lows in the 30's, with flakes possible in WI/MI.

Beyond looks fairly chilly as well. All good things come to an end I guess...

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NWS WPC graphics show 1.25"+ in northern Ohio and up to 2.97" of rain in Detroit with this upcoming low pressure on Monday night. That 2" certainly would be an annoyingly rainy day for this time of year. In fact, SREF ensemble maxes show over 3" all over Ohio, so maybe 1.5" could be expected

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3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I drove thru a bit of that storm in WMI. I like those maps in general, but find them to be a bit off in amounts. Kalamazoo had a solid 8" and it brought down a massive amount of tree limbs and a lot of power was out in that region!  Such a strange storm for two things. The time of year, and track. CO front range storms don't normally become SMI storms. Seems almost non-existent in my memory.

Easy to see why it happened in this case. Postitively tilted trough and some confluence up north made it difficult for the system to gain a lot of latitude as it moved eastward from the Plains.

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Record watch!

 

Latest euro showing another 5 inches of rain for this area which would help break some monthly records including the October record ( 9.99 ) and monthly record ( 12" Sept 2008 ) for any month!

KBTL currently sitting at 8.24" for the month!

 

Incredibly September was the driest September ever with just 0.41! The old record was 0.56 back in 1956!

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Euro had 0.75-1” of rainfall for our area, and judging from radar, might get shutout today. Forecast had originally called for rain showers off and on all day long. 

 

something  i thought was interesting the high for KCMI on 10/24 is only 80 degrees, from 1899. I’ve noticed 1899 has a lot of high records from September and October. 

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Euro had 0.75-1” of rainfall for our area, and judging from radar, might get shutout today. Forecast had originally called for rain showers off and on all day long. 

something  i thought was interesting the high for KCMI on 10/24 is only 80 degrees, from 1899. I’ve noticed 1899 has a lot of high records from September and October. 

A lot of the precip for today/tonight has yet to develop.
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