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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I see 1989 on there.  No October snowstorm this time though.  

Yeah, that was another point of that graphic. With that being used in analog lists by some, it remains in the running. Such a bi-polar winter that was. I'm really hoping NOT to get a repeat of that tbh. Remains to be seen tho, if we'll ride a roller-coaster or cold will more or less lock in for the core of winter months with the occasional moderation/thaw. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

If anything like the 12z op GFS pans out in the extended, the trees that are still green are going to go into shock.

I've been harping on that very point. Don't remember the year exactly ('05?) when that happened around SMI and the mostly green leafs just froze and dropped. I could see some of that going around if we indeed flip hard. Especially along coastal regions where it's stayed extra mild. 

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Hoosier made me check out the 27th-28th time period. The Canadian agrees on a trough dumping in, although it spins up the surface wave along the front farther north than the GFS. The 12z Euro is also in basic agreement. Looks like it will be a matter of details as to who gets to see flakes flying.

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, that was another point of that graphic. With that being used in analog lists by some, it remains in the running. Such a bi-polar winter that was. I'm really hoping NOT to get a repeat of that tbh. Remains to be seen tho, if we'll ride a roller-coaster or cold will more or less lock in for the core of winter months with the occasional moderation/thaw. 

I've been harping on that very point. Don't remember the year exactly ('05?) when that happened around SMI and the mostly green leafs just froze and dropped. I could see some of that going around if we indeed flip hard. Especially along coastal regions where it's stayed extra mild. 

I don't remember the leaf situation in 2005, but you could be right.  It was a warm fall followed by a quick turn to cold by the start of December.  There was a decent snow event on 12/8/2005... actually one of my favorite quick hitters (relatively speaking).  I was in LAF at the time and we picked up 7-8".

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't remember the leaf situation in 2005, but you could be right.  It was a warm fall followed by a quick turn to cold by the start of December.  There was a decent snow event on 12/8/2005... actually one of my favorite quick hitters (relatively speaking).  I was in LAF at the time and we picked up 7-8".

It's possible it was the pre-Thanksgiving storm in '04, but I clearly remember that the city had not collected all the leafs that were raked curb-side and they ended up being buried by the snow plows which made a real chore when it did melt. Since then, they've maintained an earlier leaf collection schedule. Too early really, if you have late dropping hardy trees like I do

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It would basically be on the 20th anniversary of this.  Not sure how many people remember this storm, but I do, even though nothing fell at my location.  My grandparents were flying home and had a scheduled stopover in Omaha.  It was a mess out there.  I remember seeing the images on TWC of downed branches all over the place.

19971028_072_total.png.e47b96bb9438d84a1879ca5c5b0c521b.png

I remember that one.  Had a few inches in the QC where I lived at the time.  Thought Iowa City had more than what that map above shows, but I'd have to check on that.

DVN made 80 today.  79 here and at MLI.  

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3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

I am surprised any one cares what a model prints after 120hrs. They can't even figure out 72-120 hours correctly with all that tropical forcing going on. Me thinks that ridging need back built which kills the entire premise of the 12z in the first place.

If the long range GFS had panned out I'd have inches of snow on the ground right now. Instead it was a beautiful summery day today with a few more nice days on the way. 

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4 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

I am surprised any one cares what a model prints after 120hrs. They can't even figure out 72-120 hours correctly with all that tropical forcing going on. Me thinks that ridging need back built which kills the entire premise of the 12z in the first place.

So you think the GFS, ECMWF, GGEM, and the ensembles are wrong about a cold shot in the 28th-30th timeframe?

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2 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway...

I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now.

You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing.

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9 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Why would anyone root for garbage cold this time of the year anyway...

I'd rather have some beautiful late fall weather like we're having right now.

 

9 hours ago, Stebo said:

You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing.

This. As I get older, I like warmth more and more. I actually said in a post awhile back that I prefer warmth until mid-November then flip the switch to cold and I'd be happy. Not rooting for it, but it looks like the first legit shot at flakes flying somewhere in the subforum (other than bo and co.).

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10 hours ago, Stebo said:

You are mistaking discussing for rooting, most discussing aren't rooting for it but you have to acknowledge what the models are showing.

And who roots for garbage heat in September? It's going to be annoying as hell to hear him for the next 6 months whine about people who like cold weather. This is already one of the dullest Fall color shows in probably over a decade, thanks I'm sure to the late Sept heat after the color change started, and by Nov 1st I'm in winter mode anyway. So I'm rooting for cold. I mean November is an in between month anyway so I don't want to "waste" it or anything, but my winter switch is turned on Nov 1st and doesn't go off until April. 

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The calendar says October while my mind daily grind is full summer. Was swimming in lake St Claire two weeks ago, camping last weekend and working outside is envious of those in office jobs. Top shelf fall weather.... Transient cold on tap, will the be arctic outbreak to the mind and skin.

 

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1 hour ago, DAFF said:

The calendar says October while my mind daily grind is full summer. Was swimming in lake St Claire two weeks ago, camping last weekend and working outside is envious of those in office jobs. Top shelf fall weather.... Transient cold on tap, will the be arctic outbreak to the mind and skin.

 

Cold doesn't look so transient on ensembles. This week's weather I think has helped salvage some nice color after the heat of late September tried frying it. We have had cold mornings and mild afternoons, daily 20° to 35° diurnal temp swings.

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