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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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Gfs overdoing it per usual with its 2m temps. 

Highs will barely be below average as the average high will be in the mid 50s by next week. Overnight lows may very well be around normal, then we flip back to a milder pattern for the rest of November per GFS ensembles and CFS weeklies.


ECMWF is cooler too.

Average highs will down into the 50's and lows ~40, but I'd bank on some days with highs suck in the 40's and lows in the 20's given how things look as of now.

Oh, and please point me in the direction of the GFS ensembles that go past very early November, as well as the CFS weeklies that show the whole month. (Weeklies are around normal for weeks 3/4 by the way)

It's clearly going to be the end of the end for consistently mild/warm weather.
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6 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Gfs overdoing it per usual with its 2m temps. 

Highs will barely be below average as the average high will be in the mid 50s by next week. Overnight lows may very well be around normal, then we flip back to a milder pattern for the rest of November per GFS ensembles and CFS weeklies.

You must have access to models that don't exist because the GFS ends at 11/04 and the CFS doesn't even go to the end of Nov either. How about you stop lying about things here, your nonstop warm bias is one thing but if you are going to outright falsify things, that isn't going to fly around here.

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13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


ECMWF is cooler too.

Average highs will down into the 50's and lows ~40, but I'd bank on some days with highs suck in the 40's and lows in the 20's given how things look as of now.

Oh, and please point me in the direction of the GFS ensembles that go past very early November, as well as the CFS weeklies that show the whole month. (Weeklies are around normal for weeks 3/4 by the way)

It's clearly going to be the end of the end for consistently mild/warm weather.

Yeah the Euro is actually much colder than the GFS and not as transient as a 2nd shot comes down a week from today per the 00z run.

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Kinda surprised at how slow the color chg has ended up being since the flip to torch temps. You know things are a bit non-traditional when SEMI is ahead of SWMI

 

20171018 WGN Feature graphic.jpg

I see 1989 on there.  No October snowstorm this time though.  

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5 hours ago, Stebo said:

You must have access to models that don't exist because the GFS ends at 11/04 and the CFS doesn't even go to the end of Nov either. How about you stop lying about things here, your nonstop warm bias is one thing but if you are going to outright falsify things, that isn't going to fly around here.

Correlates to one heck of a ridge for our region early-mid November. Would be hard to believe we see a drastic flip to cold later in November with that look also, hence why I say Nov will probably finish on the warm side of average. 

IMG_5359.PNG

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1 minute ago, rainsucks said:

Correlates to one heck of a ridge for our region early-mid November. Would be hard to believe we see a drastic flip to cold later in November with that look also, hence why I say Nov will probably finish on the warm side of average. 

IMG_5359.PNG

You are using 1 image of 1 model run saying that will correlate to a warm month... I mean come on now, you aren't even trying anymore, your trolling is hilariously bad. It will be nice when the plug is pulled.

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You are using 1 image of 1 model run saying that will correlate to a warm month... I mean come on now, you aren't even trying anymore, your trolling is hilariously bad. It will be nice when the plug is pulled.

Sorry but it's been showing up in multiple model runs. I fully expect the first half of Nov to be warm, and if it's not then I'll eat crow.

 

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Just now, rainsucks said:

Sorry but it's been showing up in multiple model runs. I fully expect the first half of Nov to be warm, and if it's not then I'll eat crow.

 

You can't even keep your message straight, first it is all month then half a month of warmth. You are trying so hard to push your agenda around here without any merit or evidence :lol:

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The second half may very well end up milder than average too, but even if it ends up cold I doubt it'd be enough to erase the positive departures that I expect to build up in the first half. It's not really an agenda either, just using the east asian theory/typhoon rule which has worked pretty well lately.  

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32 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

Correlates to one heck of a ridge for our region early-mid November. Would be hard to believe we see a drastic flip to cold later in November with that look also, hence why I say Nov will probably finish on the warm side of average. 

IMG_5359.PNG

 

The bolded part really doesn't make sense. Atmosphere is fluid so "that look" probably won't keep remaining the same.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I haven't seen any reference of the typically higher skilled Euro weeklies (vs. the CFS), which do not show a warm look for November.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, you can't have evidence that contradicts the warm bias :lmao:

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

 

The bolded part really doesn't make sense. Atmosphere is fluid so "that look" probably won't keep remaining the same.

Don't you know if the first 10 days of the most changeable months of the year is warm, it will remain warm the rest of the way.

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think this is the closest modeled snow event thus far, i.e. not some 2 week thing. We'll have enough cold air in the pattern which is half the battle.  Climo would tend to favor the farther north/west areas of course.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.thumb.png.c437a4711511274635a706c35291282b.png

Yeah it isn't too surprising if MN or northern WI got some snow in that period.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it isn't too surprising if MN or northern WI got some snow in that period.

It would basically be on the 20th anniversary of this.  Not sure how many people remember this storm, but I do, even though nothing fell at my location.  My grandparents were flying home and had a scheduled stopover in Omaha.  It was a mess out there.  I remember seeing the images on TWC of downed branches all over the place.

19971028_072_total.png.e47b96bb9438d84a1879ca5c5b0c521b.png

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