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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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7 hours ago, weatherbo said:

52 currently and the high of the day.  Trees are about 75% bare...storm moving in should finish the job!

Wow. We are still waiting for many trees to even change from green down in Lower Michigan! This past week has seen a good change in color...which hopefully won't ALL be gone after this stormy weekend. :(

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57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I believe that is GFS fantasy snowstorm #2 so far this season.

There is definitely a pattern change coming end of October, beginning of November. Positive PNA usually leads to ridge in west and through in East. Pretty decent agreement too. I'd say we see our first measurable snow for Bo/Josh with our first traces in other areas.

pna.sprd2.gif

Evident in the ENS.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_53.png

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is definitely a pattern change coming end of October, beginning of November. Positive PNA usually leads to ridge in west and through in East. Pretty decent agreement too. I'd say we see our first measurable snow for Bo/Josh with our first traces in other areas.

pna.sprd2.gif

Evident in the ENS.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_53.png

I am cool with this, to give us a cooler than average November.

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This system didn't really pan out for my local area.  For days 2 inches looked like a good bet, but the first band of heavy rain yesterday missed north and the main show today trended south.  I finished with 0.73".  The last couple systems didn't even drop 2 inches combined, which is disappointing.  Still, the landscape is very green again, and now I'm looking forward to the upcoming dry, increasingly pleasant week.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah same. Nov is when I start to cheer for cold/snow. This year has been my perfect scenario with much warmer than normal up to November. 

Yeah, I was thinking Nov 10th as the flip, looks like I might be 2 weeks early. I wouldn't be shocked if we have one more warm up in mid November though, probably coming with severe weather too.

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32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This system didn't really pan out for my local area.  For days 2 inches looked like a good bet, but the first band of heavy rain yesterday missed north and the main show today trended south.  I finished with 0.73".  The last couple systems didn't even drop 2 inches combined, which is disappointing.  Still, the landscape is very green again, and now I'm looking forward to the upcoming dry, increasingly pleasant week.

Same here. An inch or so of rain here (they were predicting around 3 inches)...but just a county or two farther to the south (Kalamazoo/Battle Creek areas) have received over 6 inches of rain  today, with more to come!

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ORD is over 4" on the day, which is only the 13th time there has been that much precip in a single day officially for Chicago, and is the wettest calendar day since July 23, 2011.  And they are north of the heaviest band.  I saw a report over 6" near Midway.

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15 hours ago, blackrock said:

Wow. We are still waiting for many trees to even change from green down in Lower Michigan! This past week has seen a good change in color...which hopefully won't ALL be gone after this stormy weekend. :(

Big difference here.  Although, I did have my first frost 7 weeks ago and many since, plus a couple freezes...

There are some areas with color left, but locally here, the show is pretty much over.  1.70" overnight.  

IMG_1263.thumb.JPG.18614e20843a6fffd5ef6a690bb42172.jpg.e4d6adbf03ed46b00b61ab29e0b17e71.jpg

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Big difference here.  Although, I did have my first frost 7 weeks ago and many since, plus a couple freezes...

There are some areas with color left, but locally here, the show is pretty much over.  1.70" overnight.  

IMG_1263.thumb.JPG.18614e20843a6fffd5ef6a690bb42172.JPG

 

 

Its strange here. We have quite a few trees already bare but lots of color and lots of green. Been a weird color season.

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its strange here. We have quite a few trees already bare but lots of color and lots of green. Been a weird color season.

I've commented a couple times about it being an odd season here too.  There was almost like this initial mini peak before the main one. Also, once it colored up, the color was nice for a couple weeks.  29 degrees a few days ago and now the heavy rain and wind... ended the show.  Overall I'd give it a B.  Only reason it wasn't an A season was the weird color up and drop early on.

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30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol at him posting the 372 hr gfs when the ensembles aren't even close!

What the operational GFS is showing is believable, but not as soon as 372hr. I expect a snap back after the cold push post day 10, but I am thinking more the 2nd week of November, not the first week.

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The 6"+ reports from Chicago metro

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1022 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017


...2-DAY RAINFALL ROUND-UP...

THE FOLLOWING ARE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS
AS MEASURED IN THE MORNING BY NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS
AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS. OBSERVATIONS ARE USUALLY
TAKEN AT 7 AM.

  2-DAY RAIN TOTALS FOR SUNDAY (10/15/17)
     AS OF 10:22 AM CDT

ILLINOIS                                 2-DAY RAINFALL
  LOCATION (COUNTY):                         AMT(IN) REPORTS

  BURR RIDGE 1ESE (COOK).......................9.30     (2)
  LISLE (DU PAGE)..............................8.16     (2)
  SOMONAUK 2NE (DE KALB).......................8.09     (2)
  NAPERVILLE 2ESE (DU PAGE)....................7.98     (2)
  AURORA (KANE)................................7.72     (2)
  AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE).........................7.66     (2)
  AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE).........................7.50     (2)
  MONTGOMERY 1SSE (KENDALL)....................7.43     (2)
  WESTMONT (DU PAGE)...........................7.25     (2)
  OAK PARK 1NNE (COOK).........................7.13     (2)
  DOWNERS GROVE 1S (DU PAGE)...................7.10     (2)
  GLEN ELLYN 2SSE (DU PAGE)....................6.95     (2)
  SOMONAUK (DE KALB)...........................6.89     (2)
  EARLVILLE 3S (LA SALLE)......................6.85     (2)
  NAPERVILLE 4SSW (WILL).......................6.77     (2)
  OAK PARK 2S (COOK)...........................6.73     (2)
  CHICAGO 6ESE (COOK)..........................6.49     (2)
  NORTH AURORA 2NE (KANE)......................6.48     (2)
  MENDOTA (LA SALLE)...........................6.44     (2)
  EARLVILLE 5NNE (DE KALB).....................6.16     (2)
  ELMHURST 1ESE (DU PAGE)......................6.14     (2)
  CHICAGO 5NE (COOK)...........................6.07     (2)
  BURR RIDGE 2SW (DU PAGE).....................6.00     (2)
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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

What the operational GFS is showing is believable, but not as soon as 372hr. I expect a snap back after the cold push post day 10, but I am thinking more the 2nd week of November, not the first week.

Oh no doubt. By no means do I think winter is setting in the last week of Oct. It was just the principle of the one trick pony thing. Lol and I see 12z op is back to cold. 

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

I've commented a couple times about it being an odd season here too.  There was almost like this initial mini peak before the main one. Also, once it colored up, the color was nice for a couple weeks.  29 degrees a few days ago and now the heavy rain and wind... ended the show.  Overall I'd give it a B.  Only reason it wasn't an A season was the weird color up and drop early on.

Its been a while since we have had a dull color show here. Lots of bright colors in recent years. Leaves swirling everywhere in the wind right now. Adding to the oddity of this color season, I have heard from several different people in the last week or so that there is more color in SE lower than northern lower. Lots of sunny weather on tap this week so I'm thinking next weekend may be the most colorful of the season. 

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its strange here. We have quite a few trees already bare but lots of color and lots of green. Been a weird color season.

Same here, Josh. The cool start to September caused some quick color change, then the heat that came (combined with the dry conditions) caused the first batch of color to disappear quickly. Then very slow changing until this past week. I was perusing the New England threads this weekend, and apparently the fall foliage season has been the same over there. Many disappointed leaf peepers over there.

Bo, it looks like you're going to be looking at quite a stretch of drab, brown trees with no snow for the next couple weeks. Still waiting on our first frost down in much of Lower. Looks like you may have some good understory color left in the woods. :)

 

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