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October 2017 Discussion


Hoosier

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It looks like it will continue to be dry going into October. Much of Lower Michigan continues to progress more into drought mode. Unfortunately, many of the trees are stressed and don't have vibrant color to them. Some are dropping crispy leaves. :( Hopefully with the cooler weather, we can still get some good fall color yet.

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16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Hasn't really been discussed, because it's so far out, but it does appear we could have a conditional severe weather threat in the subforum next weekend.

I noticed that yesterday, but didn't want to post about it yet, lest I get lambasted. I enjoy the upcoming time of year because limited severe parameters may lead to pretty good events.

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Multi model signal for some kind of tropical entity to make landfall on the Gulf coast late weekend/early next week.  In general it looks like a trough to the west during that time.  If it's timed right and sharp enough, it could kick the remnants northward into the region but if it's flatter, then it would probably kick any remnants east.

Just something to watch.

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So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49.  And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected.

Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October.  Part of it could be UHI, of course.  The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47.  I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October.  Not every day, just some days.  The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc.

Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is.

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26 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49.  And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected.

Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October.  Part of it could be UHI, of course.  The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47.  I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October.  Not every day, just some days.  The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc.

Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is.

Powerful heat island. 

The GFS actually captures the effect now with 2m temps.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49.  And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected.

Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October.  Part of it could be UHI, of course.  The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47.  I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October.  Not every day, just some days.  The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc.

Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is.

My mom was in Chicago this weekend. Says there is less color (though she was on the lake). And it definitely didnt get as cold there as here. I'm assuming the lake has something to do with it. I'm sure UHI definitely affects airports though. Btw I see ORD was 48 the other day.

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5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My mom was in Chicago this weekend. Says there is less color (though she was on the lake). And it definitely didnt get as cold there as here. I'm assuming the lake has something to do with it. I'm sure UHI definitely affects airports though. Btw I see ORD was 48 the other day.

Yep, my bad...was 48 on 10/1. 

The thing about UHI these days is that it's not just the immediate areas around ORD/tarmac, MDW, or lakefront...it's the entire 6 county metro area. I guess that's what 10 million people will do. 

Funny that you hear the NWS in Alaska talk about UHI in Fairbanks relative to surrounding areas. I guess it doesn't take much!

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6 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yep, my bad...was 48 on 10/1. 

The thing about UHI these days is that it's not just the immediate areas around ORD/tarmac, MDW, or lakefront...it's the entire 6 county metro area. I guess that's what 10 million people will do. 

Funny that you hear the NWS in Alaska talk about UHI in Fairbanks relative to surrounding areas. I guess it doesn't take much!

Definitely can and does extend out beyond the central urban core, though obviously not to the same magnitude.  I'd have to check but I know I've had one or two nights in the 30s.  But I am closer to the outer part of the urban zone than the inner.  

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely can and does extend out beyond the central urban core, though obviously not to the same magnitude.  I'd have to check but I know I've had one or two nights in the 30s.  But I am closer to the outer part of the urban zone than the inner.  

Yep, got down to 38 here a few nights ago.

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