BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, mappy said: Timing really is a thing here. If we want an east coast hit (and I mean, we are weenies, so we do, but thinking of moderating that kills me a little bit inside), we need Maria to thread the needle (drink!). Squeeze in between the WAR and incoming trough that will kick it back out to sea. If that trough deepens and tilts, I think it could help us. I think one of the euro runs yesterday was close to that. The trough placement from this 12z euro frame from yesterday and where Maria has been trending today comes close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Those canadians will be mad now that mdecoy has discovered their secret plan to ruin the blue crab industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I won't believe I'm getting tropical imby until I see an eyewall moving N over La Plata on Radarscope. Hasn't La Plata had enough? What did they ever do to you?!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I won't believe I'm getting tropical imby until I see an eyewall moving N over La Plata on Radarscope. Why do they always get the good weather? I won't be satisfied unless a CAT 4+ makes a carrier from norfolk sit in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: Why do they always get the good weather? I won't be satisfied unless a CAT 4+ makes a carrier from norfolk sit in my yard. seems excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Interesting note on the 12z GFS - the northern stream kicker that eventually shoves Maria out to sea doesn't disengage from the larger western US trough until a piece of energy dives in and cuts off a low in the SW US. That piece of energy is over Japan right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Meanwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And what's it showing? (Could you give me the link to the site you guys use for that one?) http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: We're still far from a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 hours ago, cae said: donsutherland1 on the main thread has been trying to balance historical tracks with current model runs and estimates there is about a 30% chance of U.S. landfall. WxWatcher007 has it at about 25%. So I'm going to rely on my expertise in reading posts by people who know more than me and say that there is about a 27.5% chance of U.S. landfall. Enough to keep me tracking for a while longer at least. This is the most scientific thing I've ever read. -said half in jest, half in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: slower than 6z, 0z but further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, H2O said: slower than 6z, 0z but further east Yes, but check out 168... Ninja'd by BTRwx with the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Come on. You know you want to see a CAT 4+ cane lift up a 102,000 ton nuclear powered carrier from Norfolk, toss it ALL THE WAY across the LWX zone, and sit it down neatly right next to mini-map's playscape. I mean, when you put it that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, H2O said: Remember that the Ukie had Irma nailed well in advance The Ukie was too far south and west with Irma. It was just more south and west than the GFS and Euro, so as the forecast shifted to the south and west it looked like the other models were caving to the Ukie. In the end the Euro was best by a good margin. I believe the Ukie had Matthew nailed well in advance though. Again by being farther to the west than the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 So. Much. Banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes, but check out 168... Ninja'd by BTRwx with the map Ok? Previous GEFS runs are all over the place. not sure a pattern can be seen yet where it is more favorable for a EC LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, George BM said: So. Much. Banter. take it up with a mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 there's always the main thread if its gets too bantery up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, cae said: The Ukie was too far south and west with Irma. It was just more south and west than the GFS and Euro, so as the forecast shifted to the south and west it looked like the other models were caving to the Ukie. In the end the Euro was best by a good margin. I believe the Ukie had Matthew nailed well in advance though. Again by being farther to the west than the GFS and Euro. I think he was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Ok? Previous GEFS runs are all over the place. not sure a pattern can be seen yet where it is more favorable for a EC LF Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I think he was kidding. Oops. I should have known that when I saw who wrote it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, cae said: Oops. I should have known that when I saw who wrote it. yes, yes you should. H2O should never be taken seriously. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: Oops. I should have known that when I saw who wrote it. Hey, only 95% of my posts are never to be taken seriously. But i was partly kidding with my Ukie post. My intent was to point out how it was closer to the truth than the GGEM which for whatever reason(and is rarely right) gets posted like there is a chance it will be right this time. GGEM is NAM or CRAS worthy. unless its winter and we are getting neige'd to death in mms. Then it is valid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Hey, only 95% of my posts are never to be taken seriously. But i was partly kidding with my Ukie post. My intent was to point out how it was closer to the truth than the GGEM which for whatever reason(and is rarely right) gets posted like there is a chance it will be right this time. GGEM is NAM or CRAS worthy. unless its winter and we are getting neige'd to death in mms. Then it is valid this is why no one can take you seriously. wishing for carriers in your front yard, speaking LOTR up in here. smh man. pull it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Hey, only 95% of my posts are never to be taken seriously. But i was partly kidding with my Ukie post. My intent was to point out how it was closer to the truth than the GGEM which for whatever reason(and is rarely right) gets posted like there is a chance it will be right this time. GGEM is NAM or CRAS worthy. unless its winter and we are getting neige'd to death in mms. Then it is valid Based on discussions over the last couple weeks regarding the ukie, your comment seemed realistic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: this is why no one can take you seriously. wishing for carriers in your front yard, speaking LOTR up in here. smh man. pull it together. Thanks, I needed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 Slightly weaker Jose, slightly faster Maria, still early per ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 hours ago, yoda said: At hr 138... GFS seems to make teh WAR go poof near Maria 12 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Slightly weaker Jose, slightly faster Maria, still early per ecmwf 12z Euro Hour 96-120 Maria slows down and starts to turn NE, there's a building ridge over the northeast but the incoming trof from the west is making a push east. This may be heading OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: possibly, but tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.