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Major Hurricane Maria--imby and beyond pregame


BTRWx

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It waits for the kicker and then heads east. No mechanism really to drive it much further west. If that's going to be the case in the longer range the track early on (how far west) is going to be important. 

On to the ensembles. 

I'm rooting for a negative tilt trough interaction.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

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41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Clear majority remain OTS, but there is a little cluster that bring a close approach. 

eps_slp_lows_swatl_28.thumb.png.d1ecad6a1df895d57d5d5b9047263621.pngeps_cyclone2_atlantic_33.thumb.png.ee9fed8e324982a6fcb48e0b964ce07c.png

Indicates the Euro,s due east movement between 120 and 144 is suspect.  588dm ridge over PA and not much left of Jose at that time,  yet somehow Jose is still strong enough to not only stop a westward turn but turn Maria due east. Most members keep it moving north or hook it back to the NNW at least.

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The difference in the Gefs and Eps mean low position between day 6 to 7 is like 500 miles ..which is insane..throw a dart but that said they are still both well off sure it just Gefs is almost in another time zone..lol.

Took a quick glance this morning and it looked rough for any possible East Coast impact. If/until we see better Atlantic ridging this looks destined to be a fish storm.

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7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Is there really anyway this couldn't be a fish? It seems to just stall and waits to be taken out.

The ridge in the atlantic relaxes so much there isn't anything to keep it west. So it just travels up the coast, out at sea, until something comes along and moves it. In the case of 06z GFS, its the front coming off the coast next week (that will give us more fall like temps) that eventually pushes Maria away. 

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14 minutes ago, yoda said:

I am taking the 12z GGEM and running with it

@Bob Chill would accept the 144 hr position of Maria :lmao:

 

With all the usual caveats about the GGEM and tropical systems...

The 12z GGEM run doesn't appear to be too crazy.  The main difference between it and the GFS is that it has Jose die off more quickly, allowing the ridge to rebuild.  I can't see the GGEM out to 144 yet, but that apears to bring Maria onshore.

The GFS and Euro have both trended towards having Jose die off more quickly, which is especially apparent on the Euro.  Below are the last three 00z Euro runs.

ClAfioD.gif

And the EPS still have some landfall tracks.  That's not saying landfall is likely - my "follow donsutherland1 and WxWatcher007" method has chances at about 10%.  But I'm still paying attention.

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Just now, mappy said:

Killing someone seems excessive. Are you OK? Yesterday it was a carrier in your backyard, today murder... 

This is what you need to do before the NK does his come at me bro raise the roof arm thing and maria becomes a zombie.  Kill it.  Kill it with fire.

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