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Major Hurricane Maria--imby and beyond pregame


BTRWx

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2 hours ago, Mdecoy said:

Like others have said, still too early, you could say "Don't see anything now to bring this west" and tomorrow something could appear. That being said, when in doubt, go with CLIMO. Climo says fish. Kind of reminds me of Mid Atlantic snowstorms, 1000 things have to go right for snow, only one thing has to go wrong for it to not work.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "climo".  If you mean that most Atlantic hurricanes don't make landfall in the U.S., then you're right.  But if you look only at hurricanes of Maria's strength and Maria's location, the picture changes.  This was posted in the main thread a couple of days ago:

On ‎9‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 2:08 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

Only 1 storm didn't hit America, and it was furthest NW of the bunch, soon to be nonanalog.

at201715_climo.gif

 

As was pointed out a few posts later, the only major hurricane on a Maria-like track that didn't make landfall in the US or northern Mexico is Jose. 

The most recent version of that plot is below.  There are more fish storms, but still a lot that make landfall.

08S5FYc.gif

So this might be one of those situations in which climo actually argues in favor of landfall, but the particulars of the current pattern (e.g. Jose) make landfall less likely.  Remember that the early model runs that had Jose getting out of the way showed Maria making solid landfall in the southeast U.S., consistent with the above maps.

donsutherland1 on the main thread has been trying to balance historical tracks with current model runs and estimates there is about a 30% chance of U.S. landfall.  WxWatcher007 has it at about 25%.  So I'm going to rely on my expertise in reading posts by people who know more than me and say that there is about a 27.5% chance of U.S. landfall.  Enough to keep me tracking for a while longer at least.

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11 minutes ago, cae said:

I guess it depends on what you mean by "climo".  If you mean that most Atlantic hurricanes don't make landfall in the U.S., then you're right.  But if you look only at hurricanes of Maria's strength and Maria's location, the picture changes.  This was posted in the main thread a couple of days ago:

As was pointed out a few posts later, the only major hurricane on a Maria-like track that didn't make landfall in the US or northern Mexico is Jose. 

The most recent version of that plot is below.  There are more fish storms, but still a lot that make landfall.

08S5FYc.gif

So this might be one of those situations in which climo actually argues in favor of landfall, but the particulars of the current pattern (e.g. Jose) make landfall less likely.  Remember that the early model runs that had Jose getting out of the way showed Maria making solid landfall in the southeast U.S., consistent with the above maps.

donsutherland1 on the main thread has been trying to balance historical tracks with current model runs and estimates there is about a 30% chance of U.S. landfall.  WxWatcher007 has it at about 25%.  So I'm going to rely on my expertise in reading posts by people who know more than me and say that there is about a 27.5% chance of U.S. landfall.  Enough to keep me tracking for a while longer at least.

 

I understand your angle there. My angle is more mid Atlantic specific (since this is a IMBY thread)

We just don't get direct hits from Hurricanes that often. Indirectly is even fairly rare to any considerable degree.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

hey @clskinsfan dont waste your time in that thread asking questions. there are quite a few in there who post way too much thinking they know all who will, as you saw, quickly put you down

Ha! yeah I think in need to crawl back to my Mid Atlantic thread with my head down. :) 

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43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Ha! yeah I think in need to crawl back to my Mid Atlantic thread with my head down. :) 

LOL!  Well, yeah.  I perused that main thread some during Irma and a bit now with Maria.  I did see your comment/question (that image loop where it weakened some due to eyewall replacement, I believe?), thought it was reasonable and you even mentioned that you don't have as much knowledge about tropical stuff.  The person who responded to you, I have to say, was unnecessarily condescending and rude...with the "this is a classic case of read more, post less" or something like that.  The stuff they mentioned after that was fine and on-topic to the discussion, but the put-down was crappy in my opinion.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

What hour are you at? I'm at 132 and it looks 50/50 to me for a close approach. That's not a bad ridge over the top and it looks like the WAR is building more than past runs (whether that stays the same on the run TBD). 

I'm thinking there is at least a bend toward the NNW again until the western trough rolls through. Could be wrong but I'm not doing official analysis yet :P 

At hr 138... GFS seems to make teh WAR go poof near Maria

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28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Northern stream trough doesn't look as impressive (at least comparing to 6z, I haven't followed this much).  Maria is slower than 6z also.

That is where the ecmwf trough placement + gfs center placement blend would be ideal for us imo.

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

More fun if the 12z GGEM were correct :lol:

@WxWatcher007 and @Bob Chill would approve

 

12zGGEMhr150HurricaneMaria9-20-17850mbwinds.thumb.png.b6ecfc27ef7bae47e65c5a27f4af5803.png

Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? :lol::lol: Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??)

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? :lol::lol: Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??)

Irene went over the mouth (barely).

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? :lol::lol: Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??)

Actually the 12z GGEM doesn't do that... it landfalls in SE VA, meanders for a little while and weakens in SE VA... then moves back east out to sea :)

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Timing really is a thing here. If we want an east coast hit (and I mean, we are weenies, so we do, but thinking of moderating that kills me a little bit inside), we need Maria to thread the needle (drink!). Squeeze in between the WAR and incoming trough that will kick it back out to sea.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's only downhill from here. :weenie: 

On a serious note--anyone have the Ukie at 144? I'm only out to 72. 

Yes - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

Its way out to sea.. farther east than both the GFS and GGEM

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I almost popped a cap in somebody's ass in that thread.  Almost.  

It may make it easier to just give me a green tag, that way no one gets all uppity when I'm telling them to stop posting Jose bs in the Maria thread. 

 

 

 

;) 

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