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Major Hurricane Maria--imby and beyond pregame


BTRWx

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep. Wilma at 882. Pretty rare to see a system this deep. Even more fascinating to contrast that with Irma's inner core and strength. 

As for future track, I hope tropical this year has taught us that we can't really be IN until the eyewall is within radar range.

It's like tracking a Miller B where you hold your breath until you start seeing SN out the window.

I have held my breath so many times in the winter it's amazing I'm still alive.  There was one storm kept hitting the wall just south of me because dry air.  I stood outside in a T-shirt yelling at the sky.  I think it was last year.  Maria is the angel of death here on Earth.  

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It really is incredible to see so many exceptionally high impact landfalling systems in such rapid succession. Harvey, Irma, soon to include Maria...all in a few weeks. 

Most terrifying thing about that is we haven't hit Caribbean season yet and that area is about as pristine as you can get with SSTs and TCHP. In fact, the TCHP from 10 days ago was just an outrageous level of overkill. 

2017252at.jpg

I hope recon can get out there ASAP. Wouldn't be surprised to see that a little more strengthening took place with that recent pressure drop. 

It is amazing but totally random in my opinion.  Just like that occasional epic winter.  Could be decades before we see another hurricane season like this.  Or next maybe next year.  People at work today were talking about global warming and storms...I just put my headphones on.  Never talk religion politics or weather.

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18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It is amazing but totally random in my opinion.  Just like that occasional epic winter.  Could be decades before we see another hurricane season like this.  Or next maybe next year.  People at work today were talking about global warming and storms...I just put my headphones on.  Never talk religion politics or weather.

I heard people saying that this hurricane season is the new norm. 

Eta that I disagree.

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Althought the Euro and 18z GFS both brought Maria west, it looks like they did it in different ways.  The Euro Fujiwharas Jose's remnants over us, weakening the ridge to Maria's NW instead of NE.  The GFS doesn't Fujiwhara Jose, but it brings Maria in faster than previous runs have.  Just a reminder that this is still a week away, and a lot can change.  Sometimes I think the models throw out these runs to mess with weenies.

ETA:  I should note that for both models a common theme was a weaker Jose.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has, which makes sense when looking at the HH data the last few days, but I wonder if that will plateau as it goes post-tropical. Wouldn't be surprised if it is able to maintain some strength due to baroclinic processes rather than tropical. I don't think it necessarily has to be strong at the surface to pop an escape hatch in that ridge for Maria. 

After a second look, its intensity actually seems to be wobbling a lot from run to run for both ops and ens.

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I've looked at the 0z models. And I've looked at the 6z GFS. And everything i see takes Maria clearly and directly OTS - more directly than the same models 24hrs ago.  Not sure what others are seeing that suggests otherwise, minor adjustments to track aside.

 

Eta- happy to be proven wrong. Monster up the Chesapeake would be awesome. Just don't see it... anywhere.

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i agree.  6z to me was a shift back east from 0z and until I see a better WAR show up there is no reason to think there is a threat to the EC other than more surf.  Jose might be poof but just nothing there to the east to force Maria west.  Looks like model teasing again IMO

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Like others have said, still too early, you could say "Don't see anything now to bring this west" and tomorrow something could appear. That being said, when in doubt, go with CLIMO. Climo says fish. Kind of reminds me of Mid Atlantic snowstorms, 1000 things have to go right for snow, only one thing has to go wrong for it to not work.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If that uber trough on the models out west progged to head east is real, no way Maria has any impact on us. Scraper to OBX? Maybe, but that's the first decent fall trough coming east and Maria doesn't have a chance against.....if the models are progging it close to accurately attm.

Too many definitive statements are being made at range.

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