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Negative NAO Winter


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20 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

It isn't more east based, it is becoming more centrally based. 95-96 is a horrible analog. 96-97 would be a better analog.

Still looks east-based to me, and is going to remain weak and east-based....the thing is going to be gone by January or February..

When are you going to call it, June?

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Really nice and anomalous -NAO happening now!

(Conditions around the rest of the Northern Hemisphere do not favor this - and the NAO is quite negative!)

This is, once again, a big indicator for the upcoming 3 months. 

 

Not seeing it. The NAO dipped to -1 SD a couple days ago, but will be oscillating up to +1 SD for the next week or so. By December 15th, the Dec 1-15th NAO mean is likely to be near neutral, or possibly even ever so slightly positive. So far, it's not a propitious indication of an ensuing moderate to strongly negative NAO winter.

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2 hours ago, WidreMann said:

This seems like a suspect methodology.

It may have to do with melting sea ice and Gulf stream position. Something I was reading said underwater currents. It's much more accurate in year-by-year test. It's Atlantic tripole, but the correlation is much greater than Summer NAO = Winter NAO (that comes out to like -0.25SD vs SST difference)

98.117.216.128.341.10.10.46.gif

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It may have to do with melting sea ice and Gulf stream position. Something I was reading said underwater currents. It's much more accurate in year-by-year test. It's Atlantic tripole, but the correlation is much greater than Summer NAO = Winter NAO (that comes out to like -0.25SD vs SST difference)

98.117.216.128.341.10.10.46.gif

o0.gif

I mean I believe that the tripole matters, but I don't feel like it's reasonable to just subtract SST averages and use that to calculate the average NAO.

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