downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Guess this will be Maria by 5 pm figure it needs a thread since its a big threat to Puerto Rico and eventually the SE coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Look like a good storm in the making.. looks similar to irma but there will be a different weather pattern setting up.. still 10 days out but gfs and euro are in the same general vicinity Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 Euro is insane with Jose pulling Maria away from the US as Jose is slung back towards the US.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Both the Euro and Ukie have something north or close to PR/Hispanola at day 6,far enough to look but it should get to the Bahamas I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16 Location: 12.3°N 52.6°W Moving: W at 20 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 50 mph NHC has it at 120 mph over PR at hour 96 (2PM Tuesday) INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, Solak said: 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16 Location: 12.3°N 52.6°W Moving: W at 20 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 50 mph NHC has it at 120 mph over PR at hour 96 (2PM Tuesday) INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH Yeah yikes.....she looks good on the floater and is a big system..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Don't like how the track looks with this one. Hopefully it'll go out to sea. NC has been lucky so far. That luck might be running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 I have seen some nutty model runs but the 18Z GFS run is going for king of nutty runs this go around....what it does from 240 to 264 is the most WTF thing I have seen on a model in forever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 The euro is very odd as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 16, 2017 Author Share Posted September 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: The euro is very odd as well. Yep both had kinda similar ideas..... obviously the fate of Maria largely lies in Jose and what he does.....if Jose doesnt pull her out I think she is a very real threat to SC/NC...it would be nuts if TX/FL/NC all end up with a Cat 3 or higher hit in the same year....heck it would almost be within 30 days of each other. Still we got a long ways to go with Maria, first up will the the Leewards and poor Puerto Rico looks like it might finally be out of luck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 hours ago, downeastnc said: I have seen some nutty model runs but the 18Z GFS run is going for king of nutty runs this go around....what it does from 240 to 264 is the most WTF thing I have seen on a model in forever.... I agree. That's beyond a WTF run. I still think our luck continues here in SE NC and we miss this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Going to be interesting to see what happens with the 0z run. Do they keep jose around long to disrupt the pattern and allow Maria an out or does he get caught up in the westerlies like the NHC is suggesting still? Either way they have some concerning wording on their 11pm disco in regards to her potential strength. They have her going over PR as a 125mph cane but leave room open for her to be "significantly stronger" than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Looks like the 00Z kept Jose closer which is helping to pull Maria further off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, senc30 said: Looks like the 00Z kept Jose closer which is helping to pull Maria further off the coast. Yeah its all about Jose and the loop he does off NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 06z shifted west quite a bit compared to 12z. Jose doesn't loop as deep to the south and instead of moving northeast behind him she moves due north off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 And the 00Z EURO basically landfalls around topsail beach at around the 224 hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro with ULL in deep south and Jose actually fizzles out off the VA/NC line day 7-8 and the remnants end up floating over NC/VA...scary landfall with Maria. Trough in west has been trending deeper too. EPS mean mostly agrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro with ULL in deep south and Jose actually fizzles out off the VA/NC line day 7-8 and the remnants end up floating over NC/VA...scary landfall with Maria. Trough in west has been trending deeper too. EPS mean mostly agrees... That ULL low should pull Maria into the SE coast, like Irma , if the set up is like the euro above,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That ULL low should pull Maria into the SE coast, like Irma , if the set up is like the euro above,? Assuming Jose doesn't end up around Bermuda like yesterdays 12z Euro run. The ridging being modeled over Bermuda isn't that strong so it could still escape, bulk of the members still showing miss too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Allan's EPS plot for Maria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jeremy BakerVerified account @JeremyBKENS5 1h1 hour ago Most forecast models for #Maria make it a hurricane later today then a CAT 3 or higher near Puerto Rico in 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=91 this link is a cool read. Shows percent chance of landfall based on storms crossing through boxes on a map. Breaks down FL and NC. Maria's track isn't good news for the east coast especially NC. It's crazy that this far out you can still say that Maria has a good shot at hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Well lets see how crazy the 18Z gets today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12Z GFS certainly moved west from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, senc30 said: 12Z GFS certainly moved west from previous run. Yes sure did. CMC sends Maria into Charleston Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12Z EURO out to 144 is certainly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 hours ago, LithiaWx said: http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=91 this link is a cool read. Shows percent chance of landfall based on storms crossing through boxes on a map. Breaks down FL and NC. Maria's track isn't good news for the east coast especially NC. It's crazy that this far out you can still say that Maria has a good shot at hitting us. At this point a NC hit or OTS seems most likely though that can change....still until the models get a handle on how Jose plays out Maria will be a ?.....the further Jose goes east the better chances Maria hit the US... Plane found a 986mb pressure and surface winds of 73 mph on the first pass, the ATL isnt messing around this year, probably will have Hurricane Maria at 5 with the current flare up coinciding with the plane being out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Swiped from main thread. 0z Euro EPS spaghetti plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Swiped from main thread. 0z Euro EPS spaghetti plots 12Z is a good bit east of the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 Yeah the 12Z Euro is gonna be OTS it looks like, by a lot even, however when models are jumping around 500 miles run to run it usually means they dont have a friggen clue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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