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Hurricane Maria


downeastnc

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The trends since Thursday are what's important and Maria has verified west of the NHC track many times since mid week. I think the overall track/speed today will be critical as far as its chances for landfall.  If Jose's impacts on the trough are indeed being modelled weaker and weaker, we should see it in the track of Maria today.

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The trends since Thursday are what's important and Maria has verified west of the NHC track many times since mid week. I think the overall track/speed today will be critical as far as it's chances for landfall.  If Jose's impacts on the trough are indeed being modelled weaker and weaker, we should see it in the track of Maria today.

Good to see you on here, Brandon! 

I'm actually on my way to the OBX now so I fully expect the islands to be wiped from the face of the planet in a few days.

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Seems fairly likely that Maria is gonna at least give the OBX TS conditions.....still plenty of time for this to trend more west or east.....there were a lot of people especially in the main thread that wrote Maria off and pretty much said a east coast landfall was impossible etc etc etc, and while it might not make landfall it seems more likely Maria will at least have a direct impact on the OBX and if she goes west another 100 miles even well into eastern NC and the VA beaches....this goes to show that making definitive statements concerning a hurricane track 6 days out is as dumb as locking in on a snowfall weenie map in the same range. 

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I live exactly 101 miles due west from the easternmost point of the OBX. So for me just how far west she comes will make a huge difference in my weather lol...Typically we dont see much here from a near miss on the OBX, so as currently modeled conditions inland would be fine.....if it did the Navgem track right over Lookout that would be more Irene like and if she had a big ole wind field, with a big ole eye like Irene would be a decent hit for eastern NC with widespread TS winds inland to probably I95...we also see a inland wind maximum with stall hits like that as the trough comes in.....anything west of that and obviously it gets worse over eastern and even central NC. 

Typically NW track storms tend to ramp up a bit coming in as well....not sure how bad shear will be but IF Maria did come in and make a legit landfall on mainland NC and get as far west as say Emerald Isle and be moving slowly like the models have her moving she would be over virgin deep warm water for at least 24 hrs before landfall...so a 100-110 mph cane wouldnt be out of the question IMO.

 

This water vapor loop is pretty telling as to why the models have shifted and why its probably coming close if not into NC...Jose fades and moves east, ridge building in stronger over NE, ULL that seems stronger than modeled diving WSW towards the GOM, sharper trough out west....looks like the setup we see in other NW tracking landfalling storms....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

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Faster Maria should allow her to come further north, and she did. I live about 90 miles NNW from the easternmost point of the OBX (I take Rodanthe as the easternmost point) so I should be feeling the impacts of Maria if these trends continue.

I was ready to write off Maria, but if she keeps speeding up and if the ridge builds more, I'll be very much in the game.

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11 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Faster Maria should allow her to come further north, and she did. I live about 90 miles NNW from the easternmost point of the OBX (I take Rodanthe as the easternmost point) so I should be feeling the impacts of Maria if these trends continue.

I was ready to write off Maria, but if she keeps speeding up and if the ridge builds more, I'll be very much in the game.

Jose is weaker than modeled and each run reflects that. The ridge is verifying a touch stronger than modeled. With the upper air data and G4 missions starting tonight we should see a clearer picture tomorrow.

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Meh I just need to stay out of the main thread lol....models are trending back east a bit.....they all have a NE jog or keep her right on 71/72W until she is pretty far north and this keeps her offshore once the NW turn happens....so things to look for is for her being more west of track short term say 24-36 hrs, if she is 74/75 west by 30N then I think she hits NC head on, if she is still out at 72/73W at 30N then brushing the OBX is probably as far west as she can get. I still think the 12Z are giving Jose to much credit....if they are wrong and the ridge is stronger sooner then we should see Maria not take that NE jog and drift more W of N and get closer to the 74/75W by 30N...thus being closer and able to get here on that NW turn before that trough cuts in and boots her out....the downside is a more NW track means less Jose wake and probably a bit less shear cause of being steered by the strengthening ridge. I am not convinced she cant be a 100-120 mph cane when she gets up this way.....it would be short sighted to play up the fact she will "only" be a weak cat 1 if she hits...

using my super scientific method of holding a piece of paper over the screen to get a heading on the floater it appears without any change in heading Maria would be around 74W when she gets to 30N this puts her far enough west IMO to make it on or over the OBX at least. So that northeast bend the models have from around 12-30 hrs out would need to happen to keep her offshore and we should see that occur if it does it would be a good indicator she will stay east of the OBX. 

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27 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Meh I just need to stay out of the main thread lol....models are trending back east a bit.....they all have a NE jog or keep her right on 71/72W until she is pretty far north and this keeps her offshore once the NW turn happens....so things to look for is for her being more west of track short term say 24-36 hrs, if she is 74/75 west by 30N then I think she hits NC head on, if she is still out at 72/73W at 30N then brushing the OBX is probably as far west as she can get. I still think the 12Z are giving Jose to much credit....if they are wrong and the ridge is stronger sooner then we should see Maria not take that NE jog and drift more W of N and get closer to the 74/75W by 30N...thus being closer and able to get here on that NW turn before that trough cuts in and boots her out....the downside is a more NW track means less Jose wake and probably a bit less shear cause of being steered by the strengthening ridge. I am not convinced she cant be a 100-120 mph cane when she gets up this way.....it would be short sighted to play up the fact she will "only" be a weak cat 1 if she hits...

using my super scientific method of holding a piece of paper over the screen to get a heading on the floater it appears without any change in heading Maria would be around 74W when she gets to 30N this puts her far enough west IMO to make it on or over the OBX at least. So that northeast bend the models have from around 12-30 hrs out would need to happen to keep her offshore and we should see that occur if it does it would be a good indicator she will stay east of the OBX. 

If you’re referring to my commentary on Maria I’ve never said she will be only a cat 1.  I’ve said cat 1-2   when she approaches or hits NC at least twice if not three times.  That’s a weak hurricane on a scale of 1-5.  If you’re not referring to me then nevermind and apologies.  I’ve also never once written off Maria as a miss for the US.  I’ve been consistent saying the possibilities are there for a notable storm to hit and or impact NC.

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12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

If you’re referring to my commentary on Maria I’ve never said she will be only a cat 1.  I’ve said cat 1-2   when she approaches or hits NC at least twice if not three times.  That’s a weak hurricane on a scale of 1-5.  If you’re not referring to me then nevermind and apologies.  I’ve also never once written off Maria as a miss for the US.  I’ve been consistent saying the possibilities are there for a notable storm to hit and or impact NC.

Actually wasnt talking about you ;)..Euro coming in 100-150 miles west of the 00Z already through 96...probably still a miss....in fact no NE turn at all at 120 turning NE so its further west short term but ends up actually a bit east of its closest approach....

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Actually wasnt talking about you ;)..Euro coming in 100-150 miles west of the 00Z already through 96...probably still a miss....

Yes. Looks like a "miss", but big changes from previous days. Maria will keep us on our toes. The butthurts and competitiveness in the main board is harsh. I speak up only when necessary. 

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3 minutes ago, Regan said:

Yes. Looks like a "miss", but big changes from previous days. Maria will keep us on our toes. The butthurts and competitiveness in the main board is harsh. I speak up only when necessary. 

Yeah the G4 mssions to sample the WAR etc will help a lot with exactly how it plays out....still I bet the Euro has a LOT of ens hitting NC head on especially with the west trend early....the GFS ens mean trended west a touch as well even though it had less direct hits...

06Z

59c6a83730990_gfs06.thumb.png.5ac9541701e5cb8fbf0afab4916ac9d9.png

 

12Z

59c6a83f3f1b0_gfs12.thumb.png.30ccf50266c17ec72046809442450bd1.png

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I thought Maria was a done deal and going to go harmlessly out to sea. At least that's what WRAL mets were saying a couple of days ago. I honestly quit following it, and then see today it might be a threat to NC after all, at least the OBX. Just shows you how Mother Nature has her own ideas. Seems this hurricane has been out there forever, too.

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16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I thought Maria was a done deal and going to go harmlessly out to sea. At least that's what WRAL mets were saying a couple of days ago. I honestly quit following it, and then see today it might be a threat to NC after all, at least the OBX. Just shows you how Mother Nature has her own ideas. Seems this hurricane has been out there forever, too.

Rule number 1. Never listen to wral.

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