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Hurricane Maria


downeastnc

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Just now, downeastnc said:

yeah should go NE from there....one more west jog like that one and its gonna be landfall at Cape Lookout and then inland over the IBX.....

One more water jog like that and it's gonna go into topsail beach. That had to be 150-200 mile west move this run. 

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

18z GEFS is always fun....what a shift though.  Half look to make landfall or close the other half are a miss. 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png

Yeah quite the change.....and it does look similar to the way the models ran 3-4 days ago.....maybe they locked in on Jose being much stronger in the mid range and it took Jose weakening quicker before they started correcting....we are 5 days or so from when it would get up here if it came here so thats plenty of time for more changes....if the Euro starts back west then at the very least the OBX on back on the table, I noticed the NHC slipped Hatteras into the cone..

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Wow at least 8 members making legit landfalls over eastern NC on the 18Z GEFS, this is a huge shift west today, still the Euro isnt on board so until that happens you gotta put more weight into the OTS track, if the Euro caves to the GFS then chances go way up that NC deals with a landfall/near miss next week.

Starting to remind me of this run the GFS had last weekend 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017091612&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0

15L_gefs_18z.thumb.png.2e6bd7557394154135bf10085279f6b5.png

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Someone asked about drones the other day... here's the answer.

8PM Advisory

We are fortunate tonight to have an Air Force and a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft sampling Maria. In fact, a Coyote unmanned aerial
vehicle launched from the NOAA P3 aircraft successfully measured
winds in the eyewall. Data from these platforms indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. 

 

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Good thing she is going to be weakening regardless of LF or not.   It’s also a good thing we don’t have a cat 3-4 barreling right into NC then inland.  She’s gonna cut eventually,  I’ve never ruled out a US LF but it’s almost safe to say we don’t have to worry about inland storm warnings etc.   RDU ends up on the left side of the storm not the right even with a LF.

 

worst case scenario with where we are now is a stall.  Would hate to see the beach erosion with a cat 1-2 hurricane just spinning off the coast for 12-25 hoursz 

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I feel that tomorrow evening is when things clear up a lot. I am certainly nowhere near as knowledgeable about this as some on here and I hope the ones who are will state their thoughts and educated opinions as well. Think tomorrow will be interesting either way.

 

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1 hour ago, timnc910 said:

06z euro wasn't as progressive with Maria which allowed the trough to move in which shunts maria ots further south and east than the 0z

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk
 

That is a positive; don't like seeing the westward trend over the past few days; bring on the trough.

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