downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Author Share Posted September 20, 2017 Seems the key to most of these runs is roughly HR 84 through 156, they all have a NW movement after that, but they get so far east Maria cant get back enough to hit....that motion is all because of Jose beats down the WAR enough to let her get out before he dies and the WAR builds back in...things to look for in the short term is Maria more west than forecast down where she is now as that would lessen the time and ability of Jose's weakness to influence her etc....still as of right now I would say her chances of getting NC are probably 35-40% at best...but it wouldnt surprise me at all to see that trend up the next 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Out to 18 a touch west and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 30 it's pretty obviously west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 42-54 Jose has basically stalled. Maria is still quicker and west at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 66 Jose is east and a touch weaker and Maria is faster and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 At 84 it is basically the same east and west but a good bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 East at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 39 minutes ago, senc30 said: East at 120 Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Good Couldn't agree more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Headed to OBX Saturday staying next week, But don't look to good at the moment????? Even if not a direct hit, it looks to pass way to close for where I was going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Headed to OBX Saturday staying next week, But don't look to good at the moment????? Even if not a direct hit, it looks to pass way to close for where I was going.... I'm headed there Saturday as well, Frosty! I'm not going anywhere once I get there unless she freakishly re-strengthens to a Cat 3+. It will probably just be showery, windy, wave-y, rip current-y. The usual. All models and ensembles keep her offshore but it just seems hard to buy into given all these high pressure systems steering her towards land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I'm headed there Saturday as well, Frosty! I'm not going anywhere once I get there unless she freakishly re-strengthens to a Cat 3+. It will probably just be showery, windy, wave-y, rip currents. The usual. All models and ensembles keep her offshore but it just seems hard to buy into given all these high pressure systems steering her towards land. Yeah, I'm afraid it will keep trending west in coming days? I'm going as far North 12 as you can go then hit the sand and drive 10 miles on the beach to get to the house. 1 mile south of Va. boarder..4x4 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Yeah, I'm afraid it will keep trending west in coming days? I'm going as far North 12 as you can go then hit the sand and drive 10 miles on the beach to get to the house. 1 mile south of Va. boarder..4x4 area Sounds like a good time! I'll be in Kill Devil Hills fishing off the piers between there and Rodanthe. Worse case scenario, I'll just stay inland for a night then go back the next day. Doesn't look like any more than 24 hours max of the rough stuff either way. I'm really hoping she stays OTS though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Sounds like a good time! I'll be in Kill Devil Hills fishing off the piers between there and Rodanthe. Worse case scenario, I'll just stay inland for a night then go back the next day. Doesn't look like any more than 24 hours max of the rough stuff either way. I'm really hoping she stays OTS though! I hope she stays out too!!! Good luck on the fishing!!! I hope it want be to long and we can fish for a winter storm.. haha I'm going down in January on my first duck hunt.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Joe Bastardi 1 hr · Euro has members that are fairly far west Our forecast has bigger window west as I suspect there will be a w shift this weekend https://t.co/LodOj2hVyn Joe Bastardi on Twitter “Euro has members that are fairly far west Our forecast has bigger window west as I suspect there will be a w shift this weekend” TWITTER.COM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yeah, I'm afraid it will keep trending west in coming days? I'm going as far North 12 as you can go then hit the sand and drive 10 miles on the beach to get to the house. 1 mile south of Va. boarder..4x4 area I live in SE VA and was thinking of heading down to the OBX, depending on the severity and proximity. Nice area you're in. Like 10 miles from me as crow flies, but 100 miles to drive it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Out to hr 60 the 0z gfs is a bit south and east of 18zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 Hard to see the models being wrong enough 60-72 hrs out to get Maria more west, that turn N to NE at hr 60 on the 00Z GFS is what needs to trend west to make her a threat.....though its starting to look pretty safe that she wont get any closer than 150 or so miles to Hatteras....which means basically a non event outside big waves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Looks like that upper low in the Gulf interacts with Maria and the counter-clockwise flow "kicks/steers" her east instead of "pulling" her west. From there she seems to follow Jose's vorticity out between the two highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Looks like the writing is on the wall with this one... there is no global models or hurricane models that shows anything close to an east coast landfall. .. yes they shifted west only to correct to the east... You all can fuss about it being 6 days out but we are 6 days out not 10 anymore.... About time to close this chapter unless we start to get some big shifts to the west which alot of things are leaning against that happening... Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 We will know if the models have the ridge under done or Jose influence over done tonight into tomorrow....all the models have Maria going pretty much north by 72W....she never gets any further west than that really, so if she gets further west than 72W then you gotta think the models may have misread the WAR/Jose...I haven't seen the Euro ENS but the GFS is tightly clustered well offshore and the CMC has quite a few west of the mean including a few NC hits....still its hard to see a way the models have it this wrong in the 2-3 day range..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Nice to get up this morning and see the NHC forecast track moved east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 We will know if the models have the ridge under done or Jose influence over done tonight into tomorrow....all the models have Maria going pretty much north by 72W....she never gets any further west than that really, so if she gets further west than 72W then you gotta think the models may have misread the WAR/Jose...I haven't seen the Euro ENS but the GFS is tightly clustered well offshore and the CMC has quite a few west of the mean including a few NC hits....still its hard to see a way the models have it this wrong in the 2-3 day range.....Wishful thinking at this point... even if the storm took the left side of the nhc track it still wouldn't be close for a landfall.... the I don't think we are looking to much at the ridge as we are the trough moving through and the upper low in the southwest.. the trough has been trending flatter and the upper low has been tending to stay further west keeping any of these features of grabbing maria to pull her inland.. the war will not be able to build to push her far enough west we need assistance from the cutoff and the trough which seems highly unlikely. . Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Wishful thinking at this point... even if the storm took the left side of the nhc track it still wouldn't be close for a landfall.... the I don't think we are looking to much at the ridge as we are the trough moving through and the upper low in the southwest.. the trough has been trending flatter and the upper low has been tending to stay further west keeping any of these features of grabbing maria to pull her inland.. the war will not be able to build to push her far enough west we need assistance from the cutoff and the trough which seems highly unlikely. . Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk I agree its highly unlikely the models have it wrong, that doesnt mean however that the models cant be way off, just look back at Matthew last year and the big loop the models had him taking off the SE coast that never happened even though the NHC had it as the track for DAYS...sometimes models get something wrong and lock in on it and dont correct till the last minute. I dont think that is the case here but if the models are wrong and start to correct I would expect to see it tonight into tomorrow since that would be when Jose is about as far east as he is gonna go....anyone got the 00Z Euro ens plots.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Yeah. I'm not gonna write this off until it's Wednesday and way otc. Until then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Good news is even if Maria does hit the US she's going to be a cat 2 at best. Probably more along the lines of a cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 That upper Midwestern trough is non existent on the 12z GFS, allowing Maria to sit and spin off the NC coast like Jose did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Passing along Info: Harvey: Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours Irma: Cat 3 to Cat 5 in 24 hours Jose: Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours Maria: Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 12 hours, and Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 15 hours Most of the rapid intensification records for major Atlantic hurricanes were set by 2005’s phenomenal Hurricane Wilma. However, Maria has tied Wilma for the fastest vault from tropical depression to Cat 5 hurricane (54 hours), as shown in Figure 5 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 She's 120 mph now. Slowly gaining Wow. Is there always that much drama in the main Maria forum? Good god. I see what y'all have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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