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Hurricane Maria


downeastnc

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Jose was being talked about on model runs coming off coast of Africa back on August 30th. Got his first advisory Sept 5th. When the 0z models run on Sept 20th here shortly he'll still be on the hour 200+ plus frames. Swear this storms got 9 lives.

The plane in Jose found a mess.....how well he holds up the next 48-72 hrs is a ? for sure, I am surprised they left him a cane at 11, they haven't found any winds at the surface to support that in the last two HH flights.....we wont know much until the models figure him out

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Hr 168 starts the recurve ots.. I think it will be a few more days when models actually figure out that Jose won't be as strong... I know we are over a week out but most model concensus leads to Maria staying over open water.. Not making a forecasts as there's still alot of time and we saw how models went back and forth at this range for irma..

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14 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Looking at the 500 mb charts there appears to be a trough moving in over the lakes which helps kick Maria away from land..Many things leaning against a western trend..

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Its 8-9 days out the 12Z run had a completely different look at 500, there are just to many things for the models to figure out....here is the 12Z and 00Z panels those are pretty big differences....especially given they are runs 12 hrs apart....if there is going to be a trend back to a landfall it wont happen till Thurs or Fri outside of a few random runs.....

12Z

59c0a57b12ba5_gfs12.thumb.png.9e2bba093ac05e59be4db8c52b3587e7.png

00Z

59c0a5862fbb2_gfs00.thumb.png.0ae9bebf08bbdc620477ef505e5c371b.png

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1 minute ago, timnc910 said:

I just don't see how they have Jose deepening as its moving over colder waters up north.. Especially the way it was sheared and the amount of dry air it ingested the last 24hrs...

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baroclinic processes......he wont be tropical anymore, that said how strong and exactly where he tracks will be huge for Maria and her future track...

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Go watch the 06Z GFS run and watch Jose from hr 54 to hr 168....if Jose isnt sitting there doing those weird loops barely moving for 4-5 days then Maria comes further west IMO....Jose either needs to move more south or stall hard for Maria to miss. The models do totally support just that happening right now though.

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22 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Go watch the 06Z GFS run and watch Jose from hr 54 to hr 168....if Jose isnt sitting there doing those weird loops barely moving for 4-5 days then Maria comes further west IMO....Jose either needs to move more south or stall hard for Maria to miss. The models do totally support just that happening right now though.

Surprised at how strong Jose stays on the Euro...still fairly stout on day 6.  From the 24 hour panels it really doesn't weaken that much the next few days and actuall restrengthens.

But yeah, were very lucky to have Jose...otherwise it surely would be good bet that Maria could have EC impacts.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_7.png

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I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain.  We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact.  Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain.  We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact.  Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS.

Agree...I keep thinking Jose is just going to keep moving NE here, yeah it has a strong ridge to it's NW but the ridging to it's NE isn't that strong and with Euro keeping Jose so strong I thought the tendency of strong lows was to move poleward, not loop back south again.  Jose sure loves his loops...

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_atl_4.png

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51 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I feel like Maria is the last decent opportunity for an EC hit this year, and the chances here are rapidly going down the drain.  We may still have a window for a couple more weeks, but usually, we start to see more frequent troughing moving through this time of year, which will greatly lessen the chances of impact.  Just weird how there are no troughs available to carry Jose on OTS.

I'm gonna ask because of a post you made yesterday. Are you wanting a landfall on the EC?

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