packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Looks like GEFS mean still misses east but small cluster making landfall it looks like, down in FL and skirts the NC coast like the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Dumb question, but does the new GFS still lose resolution past 192 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 Latest drop from HH find 122 knt surface wind so thats 140 mph....friggen 142knts at 959mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Dumb question, but does the new GFS still lose resolution past 192 hrs? Hold on, I'll ask Brick! West shift on the GFS , slightly concerning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Latest drop from HH find 122 knt surface wind so thats 140 mph....friggen 142knts at 959mb Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2017 Author Share Posted September 18, 2017 Her pressure is down at least 11 mb since this HH's first center fix....Dominica has quick elevation rise and has homes and villages at 1000-1500 ft within 2 MILES of the coast....current winds at that level in the storm are 140-170 mph.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Pinhole eye beginning to emerge. Not the prettiest storm ever, but the outflow looks good in all quads. Man, they got the RI processor pegged to the right out there in the Atlantic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Dumb question, but does the new GFS still lose resolution past 192 hrs? I believe the GFS stays at higher resolution through 240 now and did after it's update a year or two ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I believe the GFS stays at higher resolution through 240 now and did after it's update a year or two ago as well. Awesome. I thought it was longer now. Thanks very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Awesome. I thought it was longer now. Thanks very much! No problem! You can look at the maps and tell when the resolution changes. Also it changes from 6 hour panels to 12 hour panels. As for Maria, GFS is probably handling the pressure poorly. You can probably add 20mb to it but that doesn't mean it won't be a powerful hurricane approaching the EC. The GFS solution verbatim would be an extreme surge event even if the eye wall doesn't quite touch. I'd put the recurve odds as the most likely scenario at this point but with there's probably still 1200 miles of coast with skin in the game at this point. Puerto Rico is going to take a huge hit because she's bombing out this afternoon. The 125mph update as of 2pm may be conservative based on the latest drop that was posted. NHC thinks it will approach SW PR with 150mph winds. Aibonito is at 2000 feet and is basically directly in the center of the cone from the NHC. You can probably add 10-20mph to the winds at that elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Euro ticking east continues. Euro looks to match up quite well with the UK through day 5....still keeps Jose relatively strong TS or whatever it is at that point. Tough to beat the UK/Euro when the match up at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Yeah, Pack, lots of praise for the Euro with the last storm. Until it starts showing Jose breaking down, it's going to be tough hop between the sheets with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 The JMA is a right hook that never even looks at the US. If the Euro is right, how many loop de loops will Jose have completed before it dissipates or moves NE out of sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Really getting it together. RI on steroids today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The JMA is a right hook that never even looks at the US. If the Euro is right, how many loop de loops will Jose have completed before it dissipates or moves NE out of sight? Pretty good consensus for more of an impact to Bermuda from Maria than the east coast....not counting the GFS. This is going to another one of those black eyes for the new GFS. Euro is right around 70W day 5-6...no way this shifts 700 miles west, which is what would be needed to threaten the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Pretty good consensus for more of an impact to Bermuda from Maria than the east coast....not counting the GFS. This is going to another one of those black eyes for the new GFS. Euro is right around 70W day 5-6...no way this shifts 700 miles west, which is what would be needed to threaten the east coast. The euro from a couple nights ago basically filled Jose and rebuilt the ridge and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW heading. The gfs was much stronger with Jose and looped him further south and basically had something similar to what the euro is showing now. If my memory of those runs are correct the models have seemingly switched solutions. It was the 0z run from Sunday that had the euro making landfall in NC and the gfs way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Jose has to be approaching record books for atleast top 3 longest named storms. Heck he's still alive on euro in 10 days getting dumbelled into new england almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: The euro from a couple nights ago basically filled Jose and rebuilt the ridge and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW heading. The gfs was much stronger with Jose and looped him further south and basically had something similar to what the euro is showing now. If my memory of those runs are correct the models have seemingly switched solutions. It was the 0z run from Sunday that had the euro making landfall in NC and the gfs way out to sea. You are 100% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, shaggy said: The euro from a couple nights ago basically filled Jose and rebuilt the ridge and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW heading. The gfs was much stronger with Jose and looped him further south and basically had something similar to what the euro is showing now. If my memory of those runs are correct the models have seemingly switched solutions. It was the 0z run from Sunday that had the euro making landfall in NC and the gfs way out to sea. I think that's right. And given that, I'm more comfortable believing the Euro is much closer to being correct than the GFS, given that we're now 2 days closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I think that's right. And given that, I'm more comfortable believing the Euro is much closer to being correct than the GFS, given that we're now 2 days closer. But wouldn't that also mean the GFS was right in the longer range with that solution even if it does loose it for a while in the medium range? Who would we give the win to the GFS or sniffed it out first or the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Looks like GEFS mean still misses east but small cluster making landfall it looks like, down in FL and skirts the NC coast like the Op. I think what is happening at higher latitudes is more important because of how models are often far off with variables like Jose. It's classic not only for a Florida hit, but the storm turning into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: But wouldn't that also mean the GFS was right in the longer range with that solution even if it does loose it for a while in the medium range? Who would we give the win to the GFS or sniffed it out first or the euro? Ha great question. I've wondered the same thing many times with winter storms when models flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 GFS tends to catch storms first when an MJO pulse is in our hemisphere, like now. Otherwise the GFS has 9 out of every 2 storms (borrowed from M Smith). At any rate, now with a named storm I will take the Euro without question. As for strength, Puerto Rico and its mountains may take one for the Mainland. I feel bad for PR, but on the centerline NHC track, the island will weaken Maria faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: GFS tends to catch storms first when an MJO pulse is in our hemisphere, like now. Otherwise the GFS has 9 out of every 2 storms (borrowed from M Smith). At any rate, now with a named storm I will take the Euro without question. As for strength, Puerto Rico and its mountains may take one for the Mainland. I feel bad for PR, but on the centerline NHC track, the island will weaken Maria faster than forecast. I think the last time PR got hit by a major was Hugo in 1989. High end Cat 3. This could be very, very bad for an island of 3 million people. Potential high loss of life. Irma wiped out the small islands like Barbuda, St Martin, and the VI but compared to the huge population on PR this could have a far more reaching effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Be weary of how the globals initialize both Jose and Maria each cycle. Think Euro is way underdone on maria and overdone on Jose at 12z. Jose is gonna need some spinach soon. eating alot of dry air and its weakening him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Maria is really getting it together with the pinhole eye coming into view. Really feel bad for the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Be weary of how the globals initialize both Jose and Maria each cycle. Think Euro is way underdone on maria and overdone on Jose at 12z. Jose is gonna need some spinach soon. eating alot of dry air and its weakening him. I don't see any way Maria goes so far NW to hit the southeast coast in this awesome ridging pattern. It would have to be 45 degrees for 2000 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: I don't see any way Maria goes so far NW to hit the southeast coast in this awesome ridging pattern. It would have to be 45 degrees for 2000 miles. So you're thinking FL or into the Gulf as opposed to OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 43 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Ha great question. I've wondered the same thing many times with winter storms when models flip flop. We have this covered in winter with the model performance thread . If the models flip, it becomes a new case....so the 2 cases are tracked to verification, but with different initial times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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