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Hurricane Maria


downeastnc

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah the 12Z Euro is gonna be OTS it looks like, by a lot even, however when models are jumping around 500 miles run to run it usually means they dont have a friggen clue....

It moved west some at 216 and is off the Outer Banks coast 

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43 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Looks like another recurve after Puerto Rico thank goodness.

Yeah this is way to soon to be thinking like that.....we are talking 6-8 days out, I promise you will see more runs with landfalls in NC....and probably some with FL/GA/SC and NE thrown in just to keep everyone on their toes...

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah this is way to soon to be thinking like that.....we are talking 6-8 days out, I promise you will see more runs with landfalls in NC....and probably some with FL/GA/SC and NE thrown in just to keep everyone on their toes...

Yeah we saw the exact same thing with Irma and look how that turned out.

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4 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I understand what you guys are getting at but when all the models of lately are showing a recurve, although it is not in any way set in stone, it is looking more and more. But y'all are right, models do change so we will see.

Yeah if the models are handling Jose correctly I have a hard time seeing how Maria gets this far west. However the models showed the same kind of loop with Mathew last year and the models dropped it at the last minute. 

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5 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I understand what you guys are getting at but when all the models of lately are showing a recurve, although it is not in any way set in stone, it is looking more and more. But y'all are right, models do change so we will see.

Almost all the model runs for Irma in this range had landfalls in NE or the Mid Atlantic...remember if Maria hits the US its still 8-10 days out......so much of what Maria does hinges on Jose which has had a lot of modeling changes/uncertainty in the last 24 hrs.....if he weakens or shears out, or kicks NE more etc it will change up Maria....if however Jose is hanging out north of Bermuda drifting south in 5 days Maria will go likely go OTS. 

 

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45 minutes ago, griteater said:

To me the pattern favors a more westward adjustment from the models based on that big ridge over the eastern U.S....threatening the SE U.S. again.

0z GFS heard you...so far the past few GFS runs have been weakening Jose quicker and stronger Atlantic ridge.  Only out to 132 but looks like it could get close. 

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EPS still shows Jose out in the atlantic...as long as that's there the odds for recurve go up.  I guess if it could dissipate quicker for those wanting a landfall.

And good model agreement with GEFS.  

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6.png&key=a611dcb895db4b07657f18facd0dec012dee74c4fcc8bf0e4bfa57b65b7b0e1f

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_20.png&key=ff1274ab376fe74e4a5e574a91665439837d49f9e00e0130a25a70bbfc94e6e2

There is a good chance that she will be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents an interesting scenario, especially with the WAR remaining strong. Consequently, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, and this is the second key, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, rendering unable to make the loop as an actual meaningful system. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC. 
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The NHC update at 5am has the cone at more a curve. Seems they are buying the 00z runs??  Seems like the weather is manic enough that we don't need the NHC being manic too.  Scrolling through media and people are already sighing relief that she will stay off the coast. We are so far out still. Just wish the NHC would sit on it and not make random changes to the latter part of the track for a bit. Maria could likely be a big issue with the east coast, but like a majority of the public, they look at the median line of the cone and imagine the continuance of the line in their head and see it sparing us. It just doesn't work that way. 

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1 hour ago, Regan said:

The NHC update at 5am has the cone at more a curve. Seems they are buying the 00z runs??  Seems like the weather is manic enough that we don't need the NHC being manic too.  Scrolling through media and people are already sighing relief that she will stay off the coast. We are so far out still. Just wish the NHC would sit on it and not make random changes to the latter part of the track for a bit. Maria could likely be a big issue with the east coast, but like a majority of the public, they look at the median line of the cone and imagine the continuance of the line in their head and see it sparing us. It just doesn't work that way. 

Yeah it's too soon.  Odds seem to be favoring a recurve but there is just not a method to be sure of that this far out. 

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It's too soon to say for sure, but we're not 16 days out anymore either, and we're seeing fewer and fewer model runs even close to the coast now.  I'm very skeptical of a SE hit at this point.  Jose needs to dissipate or recurve very soon for Maria to have a chance to strike the lower US, and that is looking more unlikely with each model cycle.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's too soon to say for sure, but we're not 16 days out anymore either, and we're seeing fewer and fewer model runs even close to the coast now.  I'm very skeptical of a SE hit at this point.  Jose needs to dissipate or recurve very soon for Maria to have a chance to strike the lower US, and that is looking more unlikely with each model cycle.

Jose is falling apart recon says he is no longer a cane it may lead to weaker runs in the future so we will see how the models handle his earlier demise......if this weakening trend continues.

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40 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Jose is falling apart recon says he is no longer a cane it may lead to weaker runs in the future so we will see how the models handle his earlier demise......if this weakening trend continues.

 

Yep The models imo are trying to give Jose (future strength wise) to much credit. Hes headed for CPR with the wind shear atm. Think Maria is gonna plow into PR/DR or the shredder. Which one and what she will look like on the north side we will just have to wait and see. I just dont have the faith in Jose saving the day by creating a path for Maria to OTS. I have more faith in Maria hitting the shredder and getting disorganized enough that she struggles getting herself back together enough to ever reach major status again. 

The whole oTS scenerio rest squarely on Jose holding hmself together and per Euro getting back to strong cat 1 status again per gulf stream Im guessing.

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40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Those tracks above should keep Maria from getting torn up too badly.  We are going to need to see the WAR really build in if we're rooting for a SE hit.  Still some time to go, but the models should have a good handle on this pretty soon, like another day or two at most.

My hope is NO ONE is rooting for a SE hit.

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6 minutes ago, senc30 said:

My hope is NO ONE is rooting for a SE hit.

Agreed, espeacilly with Maria. She is a major now and undergoing RI. Puerto Rico avoided a catastrophe with IRMA staying just enough north. Aint gone be so lucky with Maria who highly possible may be a Cat 5 and eye make landfall. Have several workers here from PR and 1 from DR. They are very nervous this a.m. to say the least

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